Game Thread: 2023 Women's NCAA Tournament...."The Revenge Tour" begins...Round of 16: Lady Vols v Va. Tech...Sat @ 6:30 ESPN2

[Coach Jumper]

Round of 64: Lady Vols beat St Louis 95-50!!!
Round of 32: Lady Vols beat Toledo 94-47!!!
Round of 16: Lady Vols v Va Tech (Saturday 6:30 on ESPN2)

((( Sweet 16 Postings begins at page 43, post 1061)))

sweet 16 matchups: (teams we have played in the regular season)
No. 1 South Carolina (Greenville Region 1)
No. 4 UCLA (Greenville Region 1)

No. 2 Maryland (Greenville Region 1)
No. 3 Notre Dame (Greenville Region 1)

No. 4 Villanova (Greenville Region 2)
No. 9 Miami (Fl.) (Greenville Region 2)

No. 3 LSU (Greenville Region 2)
No. 2 Utah (Greenville Region 2)

No. 1 Virginia Tech (Seattle Region 3)
No. 4 Tennessee (Seattle Region 3)

No. 2 UConn (Seattle Region 3)
No. 3 Ohio State (Seattle Region 3)

No. 2 Iowa (Seattle Region 4)
No. 6 Colorado (Seattle Region 4)

No. 8 Ole Miss (Seattle Region 4)
No. 5 Louisville (Seattle Region 4)
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Next game: Lady Vols v Va Tech

 

[knoxvol52]

Yea now the men are getting the shaft in Lunardi Bracketology drop them to a four playing one of the best mid majors

 

[lvocd]

Yea now the men are getting the shaft in Lunardi Bracketology drop them to a four playing one of the best mid majors

I kinda feel like the Vols are going into the postseason after having left THE worst impression on committee members of just about any team in the country, so they shouldn't expect a heckuva lot of respect as to where they land on the bracket.

 

[Coach Jumper]

this is the Women's thread

GO LADY VOLS !!!

 

[TrumpedUpVol]

It's a long shot, obviously, but I wish Tennessee could supplant Villanova or UNC for a 4 seed and get to host at TBA. This team has had a lot of problems all year long, namely with turnovers, but every loss was to a team safely in the Field of 64 and (with the exception of Mississippi State) a team presently ranked.

Plus, Knoxville is simply a much better choice for a host site than a high school gym on the Main Line.

 

[Hoosier]

I see the Cremer-man is trying to sell North Carolina as a #4 seed and Virginia Tech as a #1. It will be interesting to see if the committee is buying. I know that I am not.

 

[glv98]

Actually, a smaller arena is perfect for these games, creates a rowdier atmosphere.

For reasons I've never understood, NCAA games at TBA sell less than regular season games and have even back in the glory days. Usually draws about 6 or 7 K compared to 8 ish or 9 for reg season games. The tickets are a little more expensive, they're not included w season tickets and you usually have to buy both nights. Not sure if the nights being staggered hurts.

The only way it could get better than that Creme bracket as a 5 at Villanova would be to flip us and Nova and send the exact same teams down here. Otherwise I'll take the high school gym.

 

[Hoosier]

The only team I would not like to see in the LVs bracket is South Carolina. Other than the Gamecocks, I like the LVs chances against everybody else.

 

[glv98]

Other than the Gamecocks, I like the LVs chances against everybody else.

I like the LVs chances alot more against Villanova and Va Tech than So Car, UConn, Indiana, and many others to be honest. This is a dream bracket of do-able for the LVs. Which is why it will never hold lol.

 

[travis929]

It's a long shot, obviously, but I wish Tennessee could supplant Villanova or UNC for a 4 seed and get to host at TBA. This team has had a lot of problems all year long, namely with turnovers, but every loss was to a team safely in the Field of 64 and (with the exception of Mississippi State) a team presently ranked.

Plus, Knoxville is simply a much better choice for a host site than a high school gym on the Main Line.

FWIW, Her Hoop Stats has BOTH Villanova and Tennessee as hosting. UCLA would be the odd team out. All 3 teams made their conference tournament finals. Tennessee has the best SOS. Villanova has the best NET. UCLA has the most top 25 NET wins, but also is the only team of the 3 to lose to a team outside the NET top 50.

Her Hoop Stats Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

 

[zaqhhh]

I see the Cremer-man is trying to sell North Carolina as a #4 seed and Virginia Tech as a #1. It will be interesting to see if the committee is buying. I know that I am not.

Really depends on what they go off of but I do think UNC being 8-10 in Q1 versus UT's 6-11 is going to hurt us.

Then again, they know how well we played the 1/2 seeds relatively, no team has more experience in that than us and we were competitive in most of those.

Nova is in, UCLA is interesting cause they have more wins but a few losses that were iffy.

I project us on the 5 line, but it is really close

 

[Hoosier]

funny how LSU has just seemed to drop off all the pundits' radar after losing to the LVs

 

[glv98]

FWIW, Her Hoop Stats has BOTH Villanova and Tennessee as hosting. UCLA would be the odd team out. All 3 teams made their conference tournament finals. Tennessee has the best SOS. Villanova has the best NET. UCLA has the most top 25 NET wins, but also is the only team of the 3 to lose to a team outside the NET top 50.

Her Hoop Stats Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

Creme says UCLA beating us head to head gives them the spot over us.

And I still like his 5 seed bracket much better. In this one, we still have VaTech as 1 seed, but have Stanford lurking as the 2

 

[Coach Jumper]

I like our present bracket, but I like the 4 v 13 as a better risk

History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 52 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2022, the lower seed was 51-93, equating to a 35.42 win percentage.

How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-one 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 31-113 record all-time. That equates to a 21.53 winning percentage, so it's 14 percentage points less likely.

 

[travis929]

Really depends on what they go off of but I do think UNC being 8-10 in Q1 versus UT's 6-11 is going to hurt us.

Then again, they know how well we played the 1/2 seeds relatively, no team has more experience in that than us and we were competitive in most of those.

Nova is in, UCLA is interesting cause they have more wins but a few losses that were iffy.

I project us on the 5 line, but it is really close

North Carolina going 5-5 in their last 10 might hurt them. Charlie Creme mentioned that in the top 16 reveals, the committee seemed to favor how teams had done in their last several games. Tennessee has gone 7-3 (2 losses to the #1 NET team), Villanova 8-2, UCLA 7-3, and UNC 5-5. Like UCLA, UNC also has a loss outside the NET top 50.

UNC's SOS is #14 but their non-conference SOS was #89.
UCLA's SOS is #20 but their non-con SOS was #72.
Tennessee's SOS is #1 and their non-con SOS was #2.

The best thing UNC has going for it is 6 top 25 NET wins, which ties them for 5th in the NCAA. But I'm not sure that's enough to put them in front of Villanova or Tennessee, and I think it's a close call with UCLA.

 

[travis929]

I like our present bracket, but I like the 4 v 13 as a better risk

History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 52 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2022, the lower seed was 51-93, equating to a 35.42 win percentage.

How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-one 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 31-113 record all-time. That equates to a 21.53 winning percentage, so it's 14 percentage points less likely.

Yes, this makes me really nervous. The 12 seeds in Charlie Creme's bracket look a lot scarier to me than the 13 seeds.

 

[glv98]

Who else would be in Knox for the first 2 rounds in the Her Hoop Bracket? I see the regional w Stanford, Va Tech and Ohio St but not the first two rounds. Better for us than Toledo, James Madison and Villanova? Hard to imagine.

 

[djtee]

FWIW, Her Hoop Stats has BOTH Villanova and Tennessee as hosting. UCLA would be the odd team out. All 3 teams made their conference tournament finals. Tennessee has the best SOS. Villanova has the best NET. UCLA has the most top 25 NET wins, but also is the only team of the 3 to lose to a team outside the NET top 50.

Her Hoop Stats Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition

With a win today could Iowa State move into the top 16 ?

 

[travis929]

With a win today could Iowa State move into the top 16 ?

Yeah, I just started worrying about that. A win would give them their 3rd top 25 NET win (equaling us), and put them at 7-3 in their last 10 (also equaling us). They're one spot ahead of us in the NET, and unlike Villanova, UCLA, or UNC, their overall SOS and non-con SOS are both in the top 10 (#4 and #6). Unlike us, they do have a Q2 loss (at home to Baylor) and a loss outside the NET top 50 (West Virginia on the road). Half of their Q1 wins (4 of 8) came before the Stephanie Soares injury, so that could get factored in.

 

[Lucy]

If OK with everyone,,,,I will use this thread throughout the tournament and update the OP (title and body) for each game and time for each round...

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Starting off I will begin with the Charlie Creme prediction for 2023 as it stands right now...

View attachment 540531

I have heard often how wrong Charlie Creme is with his predictions
Above is a snip of his immediate prediction
We will see how he did

PS...one of the few times I hope he is right, this seems to be the easiest path to the S16 I have seen for us in a while

The selection comittee members:
NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

HerHoops top 4 seed predictions:
View attachment 540563
Once the tourney is complete I will update this page with a final post.
I have evaluated Coach K all season,,,my final summation on her will be based on two things

1. The final round reached...((At this point S16 is my Mendoza line and my expectation is reaching the Elite 8, or beyond))
2. If "coaching" gets us to our final destination/round,,,and not just "talent alone"

Understand, all, I do not post as a fan, I post as a coach for over 40 years and my evaluation of Coach Kellie will not be based on emotion, it will be based on the above criteria....ONLY!

I was going to like this and thank you for putting it together until I got to the chest pounding self-aggrandizement.

 

[Coach Jumper]

I was going to like this and thank you for putting it together until I got to the chest pounding self-aggrandizement.

you mean like your use of a word you have never used before?

Had you been a little less spiteful, I would have edited it without this jab

 

[Majors]

Getting tense around here…leading up to bracket selection.

 

[turbovol]

The only team I would not like to see in the LVs bracket is South Carolina. Other than the Gamecocks, I like the LVs chances against everybody else.

Right: Avoiding South Carolina's bracket is a must for survival. Against everyone else we'd have a fighting chance, for sure--but I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say that "I like our chances."

 

[kell7517]

Wonder why you can’t just wait 12 hours and put up the actual bracket?

 

[Raebo]

I like our present bracket, but I like the 4 v 13 as a better risk

History of 12 vs. 5 seeds in March Madness
There have been 52 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2022, the lower seed was 51-93, equating to a 35.42 win percentage.

How much more likely is a 12-5 upset than a 13-4 upset?
Thirty-one 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 31-113 record all-time. That equates to a 21.53 winning percentage, so it's 14 percentage points less likely.

I guess this shows that the committee does a good job of seeding teams. This just confirms that better teams (#4 seeds vs #5 seeds) are more likely to win against weaker competition (#13 seeds vs #12 seeds). Plus they have a big advantage of playing at home. For the first couple games let’s play like a 1 or 2 seed with a chip on our shoulder for not being seeded higher!