FPI per game projections for UT in 2022

#28
#28
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Ball State, 95.1% chance of a Vol victory.
@Pitt, 37.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Akron, 97.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Florida, 60.2% chance of a Vol victory.
@ LSU 32.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Alabama, 11.9% chance of a Vol victory.
UT Martin, 98.5% chance of a Vol victory.
Kentucky, 47.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Georgia, 7.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Missouri, 78.5% chance of a Vol victory.
@South Carolina, 55.9% of a Vol victory.
@ Vandy, 87.9% of a Vol victory.

So that's a 7-5 projection if you go straight percentages though several games: LSU, Pitt, Kentucky and South Carolina are pretty close.

For those that don't know:

“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special team component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” It is meant to be a predictive measure, and its projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, past results and remaining schedule, and it changes on a weekly basis during the season. The preseason FPI is determined by four factors: Performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on this past season; returning starters at quarterback and on offense and defense overall; whether a team has a returning head coach; and recruiting rankings over the past four seasons.

How has the preseason FPI done predicting the Vols recently?

2018: Gave Tennessee a better than 50% chance of winning five games and the Vols went 5-7 (the Auburn upset and Vanderbilt loss were the lone “misses” from the preseason projection).

2019: Projected win total for Tennessee was 7.6 and the Vols had a better than 50% chance of winning in nine games – they won seven in the regular season even after losing the first two to Georgia State and BYU.

2020: Predicted the Vols would go 4-6 after the move to the SEC-only schedule, and they went 3-7.

2021: Projected win total was 6.6 games – the Vols won seven games, including two they were given around a 40% chance of winning.

The whole article: ESPN FPI projects every game on Tennessee’s 2022 schedule
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never-tell-me-the-odds-star.gif
 
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#31
#31
7.1 wins is a nice projection. Slightly pessimistic vs Vegas's 7.5 wins. I have us at 7.6 wins personally. More optimistic on Pitt, UK, less optimistic on Mizzou just a tad.

Any prediction between 7.0 and 8.0 wins seems to fall within the ballpark of general consensus. Of course that also makes either 6 or 9 wins not all that far off either.
 
#32
#32
imw8n4u said:
I'm not sure why we even bother playing the games anymore, it's all settled in July based on data analytics.
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While FPI tends to overshoot us or be very accurate, in my mind we have to have a surprise breakout season eventually right...right?!?
 
#33
#33
VFL-82-JP said:
Those are the pre-season chances. We all know FPI's chances change weekly. Heck, they change constantly, including during the course of a game.

So here are what I think will be the Vols' chances at kickoff of each game:

Ball State: 98.3%
@ Pitt: 45% (because we'll have blown out Ball State, and Pitt will have struggled with WVa in week 1)
Akron: 99.0%
Florida: 68.3% (because we'll be 3-0 while Florida is either 2-1 or 1-2)
@ LSU: 47.5% (because we'll be 4-0 while LSU is 4-1, more or less a toss-up...but we play in Death Valley)
Alabama: 24.0%
UT Martin: 99.8%
Kentucky: 85.0% (because it's Kentucky and FPI finally looks at Vols-KY history)
Georgia: 33.0% (6-2 Vols against 6-2 Dawgs will be the SEC-East championship game)
Mizzou: 88.2%
@ South Carolina: 75.8%
@ Vandy: 99.1%

That's how it will be at game time. Go Vols!
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6-2 UGA? Where are you seeing those 2 losses?

Edit: NM. I see now. And I don’t see that happening at all. 1 maybe. Maybe.
 
#34
#34
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Ball State, 95.1% chance of a Vol victory.
@Pitt, 37.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Akron, 97.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Florida, 60.2% chance of a Vol victory.
@ LSU 32.3% chance of a Vol victory.
Alabama, 11.9% chance of a Vol victory.
UT Martin, 98.5% chance of a Vol victory.
Kentucky, 47.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Georgia, 7.4% chance of a Vol victory.
Missouri, 78.5% chance of a Vol victory.
@South Carolina, 55.9% of a Vol victory.
@ Vandy, 87.9% of a Vol victory.

So that's a 7-5 projection if you go straight percentages though several games: LSU, Pitt, Kentucky and South Carolina are pretty close.

For those that don't know:

“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special team component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” It is meant to be a predictive measure, and its projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, past results and remaining schedule, and it changes on a weekly basis during the season. The preseason FPI is determined by four factors: Performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on this past season; returning starters at quarterback and on offense and defense overall; whether a team has a returning head coach; and recruiting rankings over the past four seasons.

How has the preseason FPI done predicting the Vols recently?

2018: Gave Tennessee a better than 50% chance of winning five games and the Vols went 5-7 (the Auburn upset and Vanderbilt loss were the lone “misses” from the preseason projection).

2019: Projected win total for Tennessee was 7.6 and the Vols had a better than 50% chance of winning in nine games – they won seven in the regular season even after losing the first two to Georgia State and BYU.

2020: Predicted the Vols would go 4-6 after the move to the SEC-only schedule, and they went 3-7.

2021: Projected win total was 6.6 games – the Vols won seven games, including two they were given around a 40% chance of winning.

The whole article: ESPN FPI projects every game on Tennessee’s 2022 schedule
Click to expand...
I'd forgotten about the Georgia State lose til you brought it up. Dang you
 
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#35
#35
turbovol said:
I wouldn't say the LSU and Pitt percentages are pretty close. The Vols chances are in the 30s--32 against LSU. That's a 68 percent chance of losing, and 63 against Pitt. It's projecting more of the same for the Vols, essentially.
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Agree. Not understanding the love for Pitt. Lost their QB and best wr. To me that’s a W. LSU to me is at least a toss up.
 
#38
#38
tnutater said:
That can't be.
Have they not been reading all the posts this summer on VN that say we are back and going 10-2 ??
New coach the COY?
Hooker the Heisman Trophy?
Pitt lost everybody, easy win?
LSU new coach, easy win?
Kentucky is Kentucky, easy win?
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BVS is strong with this one. I think we make good improvement and go 8-4/9-3 this season.
 
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#39
#39
bray2milton said:
They have a formidable defensive line and the transfer qb Slovis from Southern Cal but I think we win by 10. If Hooker had started last year against them we win that game by 20+.
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No we wouldn’t have. Hooker had some first game jitters in that game. He had a fumble during a crucial series last year in that game.
 
#41
#41
sunnyvol79 said:
No we wouldn’t have. Hooker had some first game jitters in that game. He had a fumble during a crucial series last year in that game.
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Which he likely would not have had if he had gotten the starter's practice reps starting 10 days before BGSU and then had the start vs BGSU plus another week of #1 reps.

Hooker had some misfires in that game but he likely would have hit several of those deep balls that Milton overthrew. IMO, that puts Pitt on their heels early and lets UT play even more aggressive on D.
 
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#42
#42
VOLS could have ended USCjr's program last year, yet they are even according to this clown. With almost 20 less scholarship players
 
#47
#47
I honestly don't understand the hype around Pitt. It boggles my mind how much they are hyping them up.
 
#48
#48
So with a better team and an easier schedule, we’ll have the same record? I’m not buying it. 8-4, at worst, assuming no injuries to HH5.
 
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