Florida will/won't make the NCAA tournament

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
Florida is 17-3, with a 4-1 mark in the SEC. But they are no lock to make the NCAA tournament.

Assuming any SEC team that wants in this year must have at least 10 regular season SEC wins (and I realize that is not counting any SEC tournament W's), Florida still needs to go 6-5 the rest of the way. Easy schmeasy you say, since the SEC sucks this year.

Not so fast.

Florida has by and large feasted on the easier opponents. But things are about to get tougher. Of their 11 remaining games, 4 of them are against UT and Kentucky. I think one would be optimistic to say that Florida wins one of those. So, that's 3 losses into the 6-5 formula, meaning that, effectively, Florida must go 5-2 against the weaker SEC foes.

Three of those seven games are on the road, meaning Florida basically must win all of its non-UT and UK home games plus win a road game in order to get those ten wins.

I'd say the Gators' odds right now of going 10-6 or better in regular season SEC play are roughly 50-50, at best.
 
#2
#2
They'll probably make it in. The sec is down this year, five teams may make it and thats about it.
 
#8
#8
lawgator1 said:
Florida is 17-3, with a 4-1 mark in the SEC. But they are no lock to make the NCAA tournament.

Assuming any SEC team that wants in this year must have at least 10 regular season SEC wins (and I realize that is not counting any SEC tournament W's), Florida still needs to go 6-5 the rest of the way. Easy schmeasy you say, since the SEC sucks this year.

Not so fast.

Florida has by and large feasted on the easier opponents. But things are about to get tougher. Of their 11 remaining games, 4 of them are against UT and Kentucky. I think one would be optimistic to say that Florida wins one of those. So, that's 3 losses into the 6-5 formula, meaning that, effectively, Florida must go 5-2 against the weaker SEC foes.

Three of those seven games are on the road, meaning Florida basically must win all of its non-UT and UK home games plus win a road game in order to get those ten wins.

I'd say the Gators' odds right now of going 10-6 or better in regular season SEC play are roughly 50-50, at best.
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Crap.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, I believe Florida will lose to UT at home and lose at LSU. That's 6 SEC losses right there.

That means that to go 10-6 in regular season league play, Florida must beat Alabama (reasonably likely), Vanderbilt (same), at MSU (same), and that they will have to beat UK at Gainesville in the finale.

No room for error. I'd say chances are down to 25 percent. If I'm right and Florida heads into that UK game at 9-6, or worse, at 8-7, the pundits will be saying (correctly) that the Kentucky game is a playoff game for the Gators to make the NCAA.
 
#9
#9
I'd be surprised if Florida didn't get in the NCAA Tournament. You guys are 19-6, 6-4 in conference. The only loss I can really see on your schedule would be Kentucky, and even that wouldn't be a complete 100% guaranteed lock for a L.

Even in your worst case, you're looking at a 21-10, 22-9 record heading into the conference tournament. That'll be good enough to get in.
 
#10
#10
nickknx865 said:
I'd be surprised if Florida didn't get in the NCAA Tournament. You guys are 19-6, 6-4 in conference. The only loss I can really see on your schedule would be Kentucky, and even that wouldn't be a complete 100% guaranteed lock for a L.

Even in your worst case, you're looking at a 21-10, 22-9 record heading into the conference tournament. That'll be good enough to get in.
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As bad as the sEC is this year and with Florida having lost to an absolutely dreadful UGA team, I just don't know.

I suppose it will help, if it comes down to it, that three of the conference losses at this point are by a bucket, each. Really UT was the only game that was a wide margin.
 
#11
#11
lawgator1 said:
As bad as the sEC is this year and with Florida having lost to an absolutely dreadful UGA team, I just don't know.

I suppose it will help, if it comes down to it, that three of the conference losses at this point are by a bucket, each. Really UT was the only game that was a wide margin.
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Even still, a 20 win BCS conference team not getting into the NCAA's is nearly unheard of.

If I were you, I would be more worried about seeding than just making it.

However, the only real problem I see with Florida's schedule would be that none of your wins just pop off of the schedule. Basically, your signature win OOC is a 2 point win over a mid-level ACC team. Again, seeding is your main point here, not just making it.

Unless you blow it completely, and not win a game from here on out. Then, you've got a problem.
 
#13
#13
What is going to kill UF's chances are the OOC schedule it played this season...Very weak in state teams except FSU....If they can pull out a win against LSU, UK or UT then they have a chance, Beat TWO of those teams and then a decent showing in the SEC tournament and UF is in...Beat 1 your on the bubble, Beat two your in and lose to all 3 and its NIT time again.
 
#14
#14
VOLnMiami said:
What is going to kill UF's chances are the OOC schedule it played this season...Very weak in state teams except FSU....If they can pull out a win against LSU, UK or UT then they have a chance, Beat TWO of those teams and then a decent showing in the SEC tournament and UF is in...Beat 1 your on the bubble, Beat two your in and lose to all 3 and its NIT time again.
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If they lose all three of those key games, I think they are out unless they make the conference tournament final.

If they win only one, and lose to 'bama or Vandy, they probably need one conf tournament win to be truly safe.

If they win two of the three key games then I'd say they are in pretty good shape, unless they lose every single one of the others.
 
#16
#16
If the sec only gets four in. I'd say between carolina and florida, one of them is going to get left out.
 
#17
#17
Cartervol said:
If the sec only gets four in. I'd say between carolina and florida, one of them is going to get left out.
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LSU is in at this point. I would say you are, too, but not as solidly just because of W-L record on its face. But I would think its a pretty safe bet.

Kentucky, USC, and Florida all have some work to do. Yes, UT too, but not as much in in the end.

Right now, I'd say Florida is in the most precarious position of the five. It could come down to the UK win I'm thinking we will need, plus it might even to some degree waiver on whether there are a serious number of conference upsets.

Guess I don't have to really worry about that in the Big East as the whole conference is getting in. Seems like there's some grey area in the ACC, too, but odds are good that their conference tournament champion will be going to the Dance, anyway, so I doubt an at-large spot is going to get eaten up there.

Mid-majors could be an issue.
 
#20
#20
lawgator1 said:
LSU is in at this point. I would say you are, too, but not as solidly just because of W-L record on its face. But I would think its a pretty safe bet.

Kentucky, USC, and Florida all have some work to do. Yes, UT too, but not as much in in the end.

Right now, I'd say Florida is in the most precarious position of the five. It could come down to the UK win I'm thinking we will need, plus it might even to some degree waiver on whether there are a serious number of conference upsets.

Guess I don't have to really worry about that in the Big East as the whole conference is getting in. Seems like there's some grey area in the ACC, too, but odds are good that their conference tournament champion will be going to the Dance, anyway, so I doubt an at-large spot is going to get eaten up there.

Mid-majors could be an issue.
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If florida can finish 10-6 they'll make it. Anything less and they're at the mercy of the selection committee.
 
#21
#21
Cartervol said:
If florida can finish 10-6 they'll make it. Anything less and they're at the mercy of the selection committee.
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Two weeks ago I pegged the odds on that record being 10-6 at about 50 %. Went down after our game with you to 40 %, and now I am down to 25 %. Florida may not control its destiny come March.
 
#22
#22
With a couple of losses by UF and a couple of mid-major tournament upsets, the Gators are in the NIT. No help for the SEC teams playing each other with these RPI's

The current RPI on statsheet.com

19 Tennessee
41 LSU
42 South Carolina
46 Florida
56 Kentucky
68 Ole Miss
85 Mississippi
 
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#23
#23
lawgator1 said:
Two weeks ago I pegged the odds on that record being 10-6 at about 50 %. Went down after our game with you to 40 %, and now I am down to 25 %. Florida may not control its destiny come March.
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your chances are much better than 25%. That said, I wouldn't let a team with your resume in the dance.
 
#25
#25
BigPapaVol said:
your chances are much better than 25%. That said, I wouldn't let a team with your resume in the dance.
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In my book, they would be very much on the bubble at this point. They have no signature win over anybody any good, really. The only thing I give them credit for is that a number of their losses -- in conference really all but one -- have been very close. They've only been embarrassed once, and that was at UT.



jaxvol said:
Florida current SOS is 98 out of 343
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I am surprised its that high.
 
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