Final Keith Law Ranking 2024 MLB Draft- Vol Players

#1

SNAFU

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#1
37 (no change)- Christian Moore 2B
Moore led a loaded Tennessee squad that won the College World Series and could see four to six players drafted on Day 1, with five hitters clubbing 16 or more homers by the end of the regular season. He went on a huge tear to finish the regular season, with six homers in his last seven games, showing power against pretty much all pitch types. He started posting exit velocities of 115+ in Omaha with whatever juiced ball they were using up there, which is going to run him way up the boards for teams that rely heavily on batted-ball data in their draft models.

It’s not a pretty swing, however, with a super-wide setup and no stride, which makes me question whether the power will hold up with a wood bat, and in my in-person looks he struggled to pick up offspeed stuff. He’s a below-average defender at second and is most likely to end up in left field. The performance is going to push him into the first round, but the swing and the defense are real concerns.

38 (up 6 from previous)- Blake Burke 1B
Burke’s got great feel for the barrel with power to all fields, a pretty and direct swing that produces hard contact, and a really good plan at the plate. He does go after a lot of pitches just off the zone, but not pitches well out of the zone, so his overall chase rate — which treats those two things as equal — is misleading. He doesn’t have big-fly power but hits a ton of line drives, reminding me a little of Michael Busch as a college hitter, albeit without Busch’s athletic ability. Of greater concern is that Burke is probably a DH, or at least someone who will need a lot of attention from coaches to improve his defense at first, as he struggled with routine plays when I saw him. The bat will profile at either spot but he’ll have a harder time being more than a regular if he’s DHing.

53 (down 4)- Dylan Dreiling OF
Dreiling makes excellent swing decisions and hits the ball hard enough for 55 power and what should be strong averages on contact, making up for his lack of speed or bigger power. He’s got a big stride to get more power from his lower half, so there could be an adjustment coming, as he’ll show power to almost all fields, but his hands can lag a little so his swing may not be as efficient as it could be. He’s a disciplined hitter who led the national champion Vols in walks and only trailed Christian Moore in homers. He’s a corner outfielder, probably staying in right, so there’s a higher bar for his bat to clear. His main deficiency at the plate is the lack of a two-strike approach, as he doesn’t whiff or chase much at all until he gets to two strikes, when he expands the zone too much and loses the contact skill he shows earlier in counts. I think he’s a strong regular with the potential to be more in an organization that can help him stay disciplined in those pitchers’ counts.

55 (down 3)- Billy Amick 3B
Amick has had a huge year for Tennessee but he’s more power than hit, with poor offspeed recognition and a huge tendency to chase stuff out of the zone, especially with two strikes. His swing is good, with a strong front side and excellent rotation to really drive the ball in the air. He’s pretty pull-oriented, and you can throw him sliders with impunity, so there are multiple things he’d need to work on. Amick transferred to Knoxville from Clemson and the Vols have had him playing third base, where he’s a fringy defender. I think he’s a great second-round pick, because he has first-round upside with the bat but several areas for development once he’s in pro ball.

72 (down 19) - Kavares Tears OF
That Volunteers lineup was just loaded this season, with Tears one of five Vols bats likely to be drafted in the top-three rounds. He might be the least disciplined hitter of the bunch, which could easily be a function of his inexperience (he had just 66 PA last year), but he makes up for it with plus raw power when he gets the ball in the air. He’ll turn 22 in August, so his lack of plate discipline, which extends to pitch types and ball/strike recognition, is a concern and makes him a crude hitter for his age. He also had no success against good velocity this year, with no hits on anything 95 or harder. He’s mostly played right field for Tennessee and is an average to tick-above runner who should at least get a shot in center, with right field the more likely long-term spot.

76 (no change)- Drew Beam RHP
Beam is a four-pitch command right-hander with nothing plus but who throws a ton of strikes and can be effective as long as he has all of his pitches — I saw him struggle against Georgia because his changeup was much too firm that night. He’s 92-95 with his four-seamer and pounds the zone with it, and because it rides up it plays off the changeup and vice versa. He’s got an average curveball and a 55 cutter that may end up his best pitch in the long run, although in the postseason he largely ditched it and went heavy on the fastball/curve. He’s also got a little more room to fill out and could find another gear of velocity on the four-seamer and the cutter. Because he’s not very physical right now, I was concerned about him wearing down, but Tennessee used him much more carefully in Omaha, taking him out twice when he was pitching well and had thrown just 70-80 pitches. He’s a back-end starter type with a modest chance for something more.
 
#2
#2
I know Keith Law is supposed to be a respected prognosticator, but this seems like a whole crock of it. He said that DD is “probably staying in RF”. At least know what position the MCWS MVP played ALL SEASON. Law also states that BB “doesn’t have big-fly power”. I refuse to believe this guy even knows who Blake Burke is…
 
#3
#3
Kiley McDaniel gave his final pre-draft rankings this morning, as well...

12. Christian Moore
36. Billy Amick
61. Blake Burke
63. Dylan Dreiling
66. Drew Beam
80. Kavares Tears
128. Manny Marin (SS, signee)
132. Ty Southisene (SS, signee)
164. Anson Seibert (RHP, signee)
173. Levi Clark (C, signee)
175. Trey Snyder (SS, signee)
176. Jay Abernathy (SS, signee)
186. Tegan Kuhns (RHP, signee)
225. AJ Causey

Not sure of the signability of some of thise signees, but all of those high schoolers are fringe top-5 round guys. I'd imagine they probably go if drafted there. Maybe they are asking for way above slot and they don't get picked, but for sure we aren't going to get them all in school.
 
#4
#4
I know Keith Law is supposed to be a respected prognosticator, but this seems like a whole crock of it. He said that DD is “probably staying in RF”. At least know what position the MCWS MVP played ALL SEASON. Law also states that BB “doesn’t have big-fly power”. I refuse to believe this guy even knows who Blake Burke is…
He's hated on Burke's D since last season. He obviously didn't watch much of the VOls if he thinks Burke and Moore's D didn't vastly improve at each position.
 
#5
#5
Settle down, folks. It’s a scouts job to tell the good, the not-so-good and the bad…and try to project how all of it might translate to pro ball.

I’ve been back to watching more MLB after the college season, and at least that level of pro ball is leaps and bounds above the college game.

If these players didn’t have questions in their games, they would’ve been drafted at the top of the draft after high school.

All of them will start around A ball. And how far they go after that will depend on their development. None of them are ready for the show yet. And that is not a knock, because they all have talent and potential.
 
#9
#9
Kiley McDaniel gave his final pre-draft rankings this morning, as well...

12. Christian Moore
36. Billy Amick
61. Blake Burke
63. Dylan Dreiling
66. Drew Beam
80. Kavares Tears
128. Manny Marin (SS, signee)
132. Ty Southisene (SS, signee)
164. Anson Seibert (RHP, signee)
173. Levi Clark (C, signee)
175. Trey Snyder (SS, signee)
176. Jay Abernathy (SS, signee)
186. Tegan Kuhns (RHP, signee)
225. AJ Causey

Not sure of the signability of some of thise signees, but all of those high schoolers are fringe top-5 round guys. I'd imagine they probably go if drafted there. Maybe they are asking for way above slot and they don't get picked, but for sure we aren't going to get them all in school.
They gone
 
#10
#10
Settle down, folks. It’s a scouts job to tell the good, the not-so-good and the bad…and try to project how all of it might translate to pro ball.

I’ve been back to watching more MLB after the college season, and at least that level of pro ball is leaps and bounds above the college game.

If these players didn’t have questions in their games, they would’ve been drafted at the top of the draft after high school.

All of them will start around A ball. And how far they go after that will depend on their development. None of them are ready for the show yet. And that is not a knock, because they all have talent and potential.
Negavol imo.



😜
 
#12
#12
Keith Law isn’t near as good as Kiley is at scouting, not even close to as good. Also it’s very hard to change Keith’s mind once it’s made up on if someone will make MLB or not, he held a grudge forever with Riley of the Braves and he still looks a fool to this day as he said Riley would never make it as a major leaguer.
 
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#13
#13
Settle down, folks. It’s a scouts job to tell the good, the not-so-good and the bad…and try to project how all of it might translate to pro ball.

I’ve been back to watching more MLB after the college season, and at least that level of pro ball is leaps and bounds above the college game.

If these players didn’t have questions in their games, they would’ve been drafted at the top of the draft after high school.

All of them will start around A ball. And how far they go after that will depend on their development. None of them are ready for the show yet. And that is not a knock, because they all have talent and potential.
I know how baseball works. I’ve been watching the Braves religiously long enough to have wanted to name my son Dale after Murphy…had to settle for Eric 😉. Please tell me on what planet Blake Burke doesn’t have big fly power? He will likely never be a plus defender…I get that…but if you’re going to publish a list, at least get the easy, empirical stuff correct.
 
#14
#14
Settle down, folks. It’s a scouts job to tell the good, the not-so-good and the bad…and try to project how all of it might translate to pro ball.

I’ve been back to watching more MLB after the college season, and at least that level of pro ball is leaps and bounds above the college game.

If these players didn’t have questions in their games, they would’ve been drafted at the top of the draft after high school.

All of them will start around A ball. And how far they go after that will depend on their development. None of them are ready for the show yet. And that is not a knock, because they all have talent and potential.

There are not a whole lot of Bob Horner type players in the majors in today's game.
 
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#16
#16
37 (no change)- Christian Moore 2B
Moore led a loaded Tennessee squad that won the College World Series and could see four to six players drafted on Day 1, with five hitters clubbing 16 or more homers by the end of the regular season. He went on a huge tear to finish the regular season, with six homers in his last seven games, showing power against pretty much all pitch types. He started posting exit velocities of 115+ in Omaha with whatever juiced ball they were using up there, which is going to run him way up the boards for teams that rely heavily on batted-ball data in their draft models.

It’s not a pretty swing, however, with a super-wide setup and no stride, which makes me question whether the power will hold up with a wood bat, and in my in-person looks he struggled to pick up offspeed stuff. He’s a below-average defender at second and is most likely to end up in left field. The performance is going to push him into the first round, but the swing and the defense are real concerns.

38 (up 6 from previous)- Blake Burke 1B
Burke’s got great feel for the barrel with power to all fields, a pretty and direct swing that produces hard contact, and a really good plan at the plate. He does go after a lot of pitches just off the zone, but not pitches well out of the zone, so his overall chase rate — which treats those two things as equal — is misleading. He doesn’t have big-fly power but hits a ton of line drives, reminding me a little of Michael Busch as a college hitter, albeit without Busch’s athletic ability. Of greater concern is that Burke is probably a DH, or at least someone who will need a lot of attention from coaches to improve his defense at first, as he struggled with routine plays when I saw him. The bat will profile at either spot but he’ll have a harder time being more than a regular if he’s DHing.

53 (down 4)- Dylan Dreiling OF
Dreiling makes excellent swing decisions and hits the ball hard enough for 55 power and what should be strong averages on contact, making up for his lack of speed or bigger power. He’s got a big stride to get more power from his lower half, so there could be an adjustment coming, as he’ll show power to almost all fields, but his hands can lag a little so his swing may not be as efficient as it could be. He’s a disciplined hitter who led the national champion Vols in walks and only trailed Christian Moore in homers. He’s a corner outfielder, probably staying in right, so there’s a higher bar for his bat to clear. His main deficiency at the plate is the lack of a two-strike approach, as he doesn’t whiff or chase much at all until he gets to two strikes, when he expands the zone too much and loses the contact skill he shows earlier in counts. I think he’s a strong regular with the potential to be more in an organization that can help him stay disciplined in those pitchers’ counts.

55 (down 3)- Billy Amick 3B
Amick has had a huge year for Tennessee but he’s more power than hit, with poor offspeed recognition and a huge tendency to chase stuff out of the zone, especially with two strikes. His swing is good, with a strong front side and excellent rotation to really drive the ball in the air. He’s pretty pull-oriented, and you can throw him sliders with impunity, so there are multiple things he’d need to work on. Amick transferred to Knoxville from Clemson and the Vols have had him playing third base, where he’s a fringy defender. I think he’s a great second-round pick, because he has first-round upside with the bat but several areas for development once he’s in pro ball.

72 (down 19) - Kavares Tears OF
That Volunteers lineup was just loaded this season, with Tears one of five Vols bats likely to be drafted in the top-three rounds. He might be the least disciplined hitter of the bunch, which could easily be a function of his inexperience (he had just 66 PA last year), but he makes up for it with plus raw power when he gets the ball in the air. He’ll turn 22 in August, so his lack of plate discipline, which extends to pitch types and ball/strike recognition, is a concern and makes him a crude hitter for his age. He also had no success against good velocity this year, with no hits on anything 95 or harder. He’s mostly played right field for Tennessee and is an average to tick-above runner who should at least get a shot in center, with right field the more likely long-term spot.

76 (no change)- Drew Beam RHP
Beam is a four-pitch command right-hander with nothing plus but who throws a ton of strikes and can be effective as long as he has all of his pitches — I saw him struggle against Georgia because his changeup was much too firm that night. He’s 92-95 with his four-seamer and pounds the zone with it, and because it rides up it plays off the changeup and vice versa. He’s got an average curveball and a 55 cutter that may end up his best pitch in the long run, although in the postseason he largely ditched it and went heavy on the fastball/curve. He’s also got a little more room to fill out and could find another gear of velocity on the four-seamer and the cutter. Because he’s not very physical right now, I was concerned about him wearing down, but Tennessee used him much more carefully in Omaha, taking him out twice when he was pitching well and had thrown just 70-80 pitches. He’s a back-end starter type with a modest chance for something more.
I know he’s a national writer but it seems as if Keith Law didn’t watch any games we played. Burke was all-sec defense and Moore won the triple crown? He seems very negative towards our guys and is basing it off what they did last year
 
#23
#23
Can players still choose to return following the Draft? I would think Dreiling and Tears could greatly improve there Draft Stock with another year

I don’t think it works that way in baseball. Or really any sport anymore.

It seems that pro teams wouod rather draft young potential than mature, more developed players. See Dalton Knecht as Exhibit 1.
 
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