ESPN: Tennessee the unluckiest team in '13-14

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golfballs

golfballs

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These teams were the country's unluckiest last season. Which will get better? - ESPN

Coaches don't like to admit that chance plays a role in basketball. Well, they're wrong. Chance is an important factor, and that's part of what makes the sport so exciting. In bowling and skeet shooting, perhaps, fans can expect perfect symmetry between merit and outcome, but in hoops the variables are a little more unruly.

Call those variables anything you wish, whether it's "luck," "error," "variance," "ball don't lie" or even "the hoops gods." The idea is the same any way you dress it up. Performance alone does not determine success.

That dynamic was felt once again last season, and below I've listed the 10 unluckiest major-conference teams from 2013-14. I've come up with this group by comparing teams' records in conference play to what their expected record would be based on their per-possession performance. (For instance if you score as many points as you allow over the course of a conference season, you would be expected to go 9-9 in an 18-game league. If you go 6-12 instead, I will officially label you as unlucky.)

So much for the procedures, here are the results. Presenting your top 10 teams due for better luck in 2014-15.

1. Tennessee Volunteers

I'm on the record as expecting the Volunteers to struggle under first-year coach Donnie Tyndall. So when I say Tennessee is due for better luck, in this case it means the team will see a closer correlation between its performance (which will likely register a steep decline) and its record in SEC play (which may not drop off nearly as much).

Josh Richardson is the only returning starter from a team that went just 11-7 in SEC play and barely made the NCAA tournament. Tennessee's true strength, however, was perhaps better illustrated by its run to the 40th minute of a Sweet 16 game against No. 2-seeded Michigan. The Vols were indeed better than many people understood last season. The team won't be nearly as strong in 2014-15, but the record that results in SEC play could still be respectable -- thanks in equal parts to better luck and the league's relatively weak midsection.
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#4
#4
Lefteye said:
I would call them uninspired, most of the season, before unlucky.
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Obviously there was a lot that could've made the ending not matter, but when you look just at the A&M games, those are 2 "lucky" shots. If neither goes in that's a much different looking season, and NCAAT seed.

Like I said, there's a lot that they controlled throughout the games that could've prevented falling to a lucky team, but that's where that stat is coming from.
 
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#5
#5
bleedingTNorange said:
Obviously there was a lot that could've made the ending not matter, but when you look just at the A&M games, those are 2 "lucky" shots. If neither goes in that's a much different looking season, and NCAAT seed.

Like I said, there's a lot that they controlled throughout the games that could've prevented falling to a lucky team, but that's where that stat is coming from.
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And I get that. I just personally believe if they had play with the freedom and passion they played with during their run, those games don't come to a last second shot.
 
#6
#6
We were better than our record implied in our last two seasons. I said it many times. Whatever you wanna chalk it up to I think it was obvious for anyone who consistently watched our team.
 
#9
#9
The guy is saying he expects us to have a similar record in SEC play this year just based on the fact we shouldn't be nearly as "unlucky" - despite all the talent we lost
 
#10
#10
A basketball thread talking about 2015? Man, that is a huge whiff in my book given game week and all. At least you did not post "Synchronized Swimming having a banner year"
 
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#12
#12
omghulkhands said:
We were better than our record implied in our last two seasons. I said it many times. Whatever you wanna chalk it up to I think it was obvious for anyone who consistently watched our team.
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IMO we played at the same level as the team we were playing, not always our full potential like when we played Virginia (87-52 W).
 
#13
#13
Anybody with eyes saw this last year. We were unlucky in quite a few games. Lucky shots , off ft shooting nights etc. But that is basketball. Sometimes your shots just don't fall or the other team hits stuff they usually don't.
 
#14
#14
If you play with the correct effort and intensity with a more talented team, lucky 3 pointers to end games scoring in the 50's won't happen, and won't happen multiple times.
Their draw to get to the sweet 16 was far from unlucky.
 
#15
#15
Spartacavolus said:
If you play with the correct effort and intensity with a more talented team, lucky 3 pointers to end games scoring in the 50's won't happen, and won't happen multiple times.
Their draw to get to the sweet 16 was far from unlucky.
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Agreed. Play like we should have been all season and we're fighting for seeding at the end of the year, not sitting on the bubble eventually needing to win a play in game to get in the tournament.
 
#16
#16
golfballs said:
The guy is saying he expects us to have a similar record in SEC play this year just based on the fact we shouldn't be nearly as "unlucky" - despite all the talent we lost
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He said "respectable" record, not similar record. Not sure what definition he gives to the word respectable though.
 
#18
#18
Close games usually fluctuate year to year. They aren't completely unpredictable but there is a randomness to it. Last year Tennessee lost a lot of close games. Maybe this year it turns out better. Maybe it doesn't.
 
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