ESPN Preseason Ranks Vols #10

#2
#2
Is this Real Life?

michael-scott-happy-cry.gif
 
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#7
#7
stevenrich2003 said:
Georgia projected wins - 10.6
Alabama projected wins - 10.5

How bama ranked higher than Georgia????
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The ESPN poll is based upon Bill Connely's opinion of returning production. The AP poll is from sports writers. The Coaches Poll is from coaches (probably SIDs).
 
#8
#8
stevenrich2003 said:
Georgia projected wins - 10.6
Alabama projected wins - 10.5

How bama ranked higher than Georgia????
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Alabama has to play LSU A&M ole miss, Ms state who have a higher chance of beating bama than UK, UF, SC and Mizzou have of beating Georgia. UT vandy and Auburn are common opponents.
 
#9
#9
Otis1105 said:
Alabama has to play LSU A&M ole miss, Ms state who have a higher chance of beating bama than UK, UF, SC and Mizzou have of beating Georgia. UT vandy and Auburn are common opponents.
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The over/under for wins on my book is 10.5 for UGA and the Gumps.
If you Bet over on UGA, you bet $1150 to win $500. If you bet over on the Gumps, you bet #3200 to win $500. See what's happening?
 
#10
#10
GregAmsler said:
Tennessee and Texas A&M only projected to win 8, but both are top 10. The projected win thing is confusing.
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Its preseason... That means how they should be ranked coming in...the projected wins is how they think it will work out and is not an exact number its based on probabilities. Hance where they come to 10.6 instead of saying 10-2 or 11.1 10.6 means they definitely expect 10 wins but probably 11 10.5 means 10 wins 50/50 chance they get that 11th etc. If you look at it the number before the . is what they think is rock bottom and the number after is how strongly they think they get one more wins. So read 8.2 as 8 wins with a 20% chance of getting 9
 
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#11
#11
ZippyMorocco said:
The over/under for wins on my book is 10.5 for UGA and the Gumps.
If you Bet over on UGA, you bet $1150 to win $500. If you bet over on the Gumps, you bet #3200 to win $500. See what's happening?
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’m assuming they were talking about SP+ over under because Vegas doesn’t offer .6 wins
 
#12
#12
ZippyMorocco said:
The over/under for wins on my book is 10.5 for UGA and the Gumps.
If you Bet over on UGA, you bet $1150 to win $500. If you bet over on the Gumps, you bet #3200 to win $500. See what's happening?
Click to expand...


Bama winning 11 games or more seems like one of the safest bets there is with the reigning Heisman winner returning. Only A&M seems like a legitimate threat to beat them in the West.
 
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#13
#13
That SP+ ranking is sort of weird and easy to skew - not saying that UT doesn't deserve the ranking.
Seems like the factors they use are returning production (we only lost ~1800yds from Jones, Payton, and Evans), recent success (we went from a 3-9 team to a 7-6 team with a bowl game), and recent recruiting success (Heupel is on track for a top 10 class this season and his first class I believe settled out around 15).

It's kind of like 'instantly' boosting your credit score by calling and having the limit on your credit card rasied so you're only using less than 20% of the available limit...eventually you have to pay the bill, or in this case play the game.
 
#15
#15
IndianaVol said:
That SP+ ranking is sort of weird and easy to skew - not saying that UT doesn't deserve the ranking.
Seems like the factors they use are returning production (we only lost ~1800yds from Jones, Payton, and Evans), recent success (we went from a 3-9 team to a 7-6 team with a bowl game), and recent recruiting success (Heupel is on track for a top 10 class this season and his first class I believe settled out around 15).

It's kind of like 'instantly' boosting your credit score by calling and having the limit on your credit card rasied so you're only using less than 20% of the available limit...eventually you have to pay the bill, or in this case play the game.
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And recruiting success has been fairly constant. Pruitt always settled around 15 in rankings. If you can return production and recruit well you will show well in S&P+. Because of how the SEC recruits most league teams have a built in advantage in 33% of this metric. Also, not sure production factors in Butlers 80 or so snaps a game. That’s a big loss that doesn’t show a whole ton on the production spectrum.
 
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#16
#16
Otis1105 said:
And recruiting success has been fairly constant. Pruitt always settled around 15 in rankings. If you can return production and recruit well you will show well in S&P+. Because of how the SEC recruits most league teams have a built in advantage in 33% of this metric. Also, not sure production factors in Butlers 80 or so snaps a game. That’s a big loss that doesn’t show a whole ton on the production spectrum.
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Good point about Butler's 80 snaps a game. When I looked at "production", I looked strictly at yds per game and did not factor in points for, points against, snaps by position, punt and kick return, defensive scoring, etc.
 
#17
#17
Carp said:
Bama winning 11 games or more seems like one of the safest bets there is with the reigning Heisman winner returning. Only A&M seems like a legitimate threat to beat them in the West.
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Saban is probably I bit mad with ATM. I imagine Bama will get even this year.
 
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