ESPN Good News and Bad News, remaining schedule

#1

goldvol

VolNation's Lesser Poobah
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#1
10-5-21 UPDATE:
What a difference 2 weeks makes. Below are the updated ESPN FPI (power index) and team efficiency rankings (partial lists). now #26 in the FPI, #24 offense and #32 defense efficiencies!
Also, note that the projected record has gone up almost an entire game, from 5.9 wins to now projecting 6.9 wins.


ORIGINAL Post below *9-20-21
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
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ESPN Team Efficiencies
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#2
#2
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1%, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies
You lost me at “looking through ESPN”.
 
#5
#5
Hey, feel free to contribute whatever source you have that analyses offensive team efficiencies.

PFF, for whatever it's worth, has the Vols with the 101st graded offense, however what might come as a shock is we're the 5th highest graded defense. Only Georgia, Auburn, San Diego State and Cinci are higher.

We'll see how that changes as we hit the SEC schedule.
 
#6
#6
PFF, for whatever it's worth, has the Vols with the 101st graded offense, however what might come as a shock is we're the 5th highest graded defense. Only Georgia, Auburn, San Diego State and Cinci are higher.

We'll see how that changes as we hit the SEC schedule.
isn't weird how the defense, especially tackles for loss, seem to be showing out. they have pleasantly surprised me.
and thanks for the PFF ranking. helps confirm that there is a major red flag for our offense
 
#7
#7
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies

Without looking at this in great detail - I tend to agree with your summation because we really couldn't run the ball against Pitt or Tennessee Tech and completing passes will become much more difficult against Florida and the SEC. I expect our offensive production to drop pretty significantly. The South Carolina game is a must win - with Vandy and S. Alabama that would get us to 5. Then we are down to needing to upset Missouri or Kentucky on the road or Ole Miss at home to get to 6.
 
#8
#8
Without looking at this in great detail - I tend to agree with your summation because we really couldn't run the ball against Pitt or Tennessee Tech and completing passes will become much more difficult against Florida and the SEC. I expect our offensive production to drop pretty significantly. The South Carolina game is a must win - with Vandy and S. Alabama that would get us to 5. Then we are down to needing to upset Missouri or Kentucky on the road or Ole Miss at home to get to 6.
yeah, that's a good way to look at it. If you group Mizz, Ky, and Ole Miss together, I would bet money we win at least one of those three games.
 
#9
#9
We're not very good right now. We beat 2 horrible teams and lost to a less than mediocre Pitt. We couldn't run on TENNESSEE TECH. We don't have a qb who can hit a reciever past 5 yards. We have no depth. Haven't looked very disciplined. Yet, like everyone else, I remain hopeful, but thre truth is, we're about to see just how bad we are. Once this schedule opens up EVERYTHING will be magnified
 
#10
#10
anyone want to take a guess at what Florida's offensive efficiency ranking is? either a number from 0-100, or the team ranking
 
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#11
#11
Without looking at this in great detail - I tend to agree with your summation because we really couldn't run the ball against Pitt or Tennessee Tech and completing passes will become much more difficult against Florida and the SEC. I expect our offensive production to drop pretty significantly. The South Carolina game is a must win - with Vandy and S. Alabama that would get us to 5. Then we are down to needing to upset Missouri or Kentucky on the road or Ole Miss at home to get to 6.

Reality is when the words needing to upset Kentucky or Missouri rears it’s ugly head and smacks you in the mouth. This is where we have fallen.
 
#12
#12
yeah, that's a good way to look at it. If you group Mizz, Ky, and Ole Miss together, I would bet money we win at least one of those three games.
0 chance we best Ole Miss imo. They are in a completely different league than Mizz and Kentucky. They have a legit shot at beating Alabama next week imo.
 
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#13
#13
The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?

If you watched our first 3 games and your eye test indicated that we are fine offensively, then it's time to get your eyes checked.
 
#14
#14
Reality is when the words needing to upset Kentucky or Missouri rears it’s ugly head and smacks you in the mouth. This is where we have fallen.

I agree in a way but we have lived in Kentucky's head rent free for decades. Last year was an exception because we handed that game away and by we I mean our QB's. We beat Kentucky like a drum a couple years ago in Neyland and they were ranked 6th in country and on paper we had no business beating them. Mizzo is a little harder to make a case for historically but this year is still young. Only teams that have earned "upset" respect on our schedule is FL, Bama and Ga.
 
#15
#15
If you watched our first 3 games and your eye test indicated that we are fine offensively, then it's time to get your eyes checked.
We’re averaging almost 400 yards and 43 points per game. To me, that is deceiving since those numbers sound good out of context
 
#16
#16
We’re averaging almost 400 yards and 43 points per game.
...and yet I'm right, and you're wrong. If you're going to use an eye test, it involves more than simply looking at the stat sheet. You have to actually know what good offense looks like. Hint: Good offense doesn't include consistently overthrowing every wide receiver and tight end more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.
 
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#17
#17
although the eye test is that we are fine offensively
iu
 
#18
#18
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies

if you think our offense has passed the eye test you need glasses
 
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#19
#19
...and yet I'm right, and you're wrong. If you're going to use an eye test, it involves more than simply looking at the stat sheet. You have to actually know what good offense looks like. Hint: Good offense doesn't include consistently overthrowing every wide receiver more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.
Way to go. You beat me on a forum. I was explaining what I meant when I said “eye test”, because the offensive totals do look good.
 
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#20
#20
I was just looking through ESPN FPI (power index). Let's start with the good. According to the projection, we are still on target for almost 6 wins, finishing with a projected record of 5.9-6.1. Hopefully that will instill a bit of confidence that we will pick off at least one good team.
ESPN FPI
Now, for the bad. We have the 4th toughest remaining strength of schedule in all of college football. That likely doesnt surprise the average volnation fan.
The scariest part for me is when I started looking through the team efficiencies (charts below). The overall efficiency "net efficiency on 0-100 scale" is 47.4, which ranks 86th. The offensive team efficiency "based on offense's contribution to scoring margin on per-play basis, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses faced" is an abysmal 35.1, ranking 91st. From the first 3 games, although the eye test is that we are fine offensively, you got to ask, do we really have a high powered offense? or our we just hoping it comes in year 3 with Heupel?
View attachment 395874
View attachment 395873
ESPN Team Efficiencies

According to FPI, we are closer to the "5" in 5.9 than we are rounding up to 6 at the moment.
UTFPI.png
 
#21
#21
If anyone has watched us struggle with a decent Pitt team with a sorry defense and the other two scabs..... that is not really a surprise. If the deep ball starts happening the offense has no boundaries. This is a must. For us to have success running the ball wr have to hit those shots. Our OL has got to play better. Wr's same.
 
#23
#23
You’re going to have to help me out, how 5.9 is closer to 5 than it is to 6…

Do you really need to me to explain the basic math of adding our existing wins, 2, to the FPI-stated probable wins left on the schedule, which is 3?
 
#25
#25
Yes, because I don’t see anything on what you provided that says our probable wins left on the schedule is 3.
Look at each individual matchup. They list Tennessee as the favorite in three of those games, which would get them to 5 wins. They’re underdogs in the other games, although Mizzou and KY and basically toss ups. Just going by the percentages, Tennessee would finish 5-7.
 
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