ESPN FPI says 87% Vols

#28
#28
vegasvolfan said:
3 games is a small sample size.
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In a way, yes, but then it's also 25% of the season. A lot of fans don't think about how there are really only 12 chances for a team to prove itself in a season, and 25% of that total is more than enough IMO.

Having said that, the concern I have is that two of the opponents were very less than. And having said THAT, if Pruitt were our coach ... let me look in my crystal ball....I see a lackluster 31-20 win over Akron with the game being live well into the third quarter, a sputtering and downright ugly offense, some good plays on defense but a team overall that is sloppy and unmotivated.

So there is THAT at least. Heupel treats the "less thans" as they should be treated. Going all the way back to the later Fulmer years, it seems every single season we struggled against at least one overmatched OOC opponent. To his credit, that hasnt happened to Heupel. (Knocking on wood so that I don't jinx him).

I know it was just Ball State and Akron, but given the sheer magnitude of our victory compared to our recent (absolute trash) run of coaches, it does mean something IMO. If nothing else it means a Heupel team will show up and take care of business and play UP to it's potential and not down to the level of our former crap coaches.
 
#30
#30
BigOrangeTrain said:
If you think about it Butch should have had a 3 game winning streak against UF.
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At least. 2014 was a coin toss. 2013 they were just better than us, Dooley had left the cupboard so bare.

I can't recall his name anymore, but the gators couldn't score in 2014 because they had an absolutely trash QB that Muschamp was too stupid to sit (shades of Pruitt...former DCs seem to just make this mistake). Through 3 quarters it was very close, and then finally he pulled his bad QB in the early 4th quarter and they promptly scored. It's too bad Muschump finally figured it out...but yeah that could have been a win, but again, going into it I thought it was 50-50, so you don't always win the "coin flips".

In 2015 and 2017 there is absolutely no excuse for us to lose those games. Two of the worst chokes in the history of the Vols. 2015 was particularly galling, as it featured the "i followed the chart" (that no one could ever find!) non-two-point-conversion call. Followed by the lame excuses and absolute refusal to take responsibility. Butch at his best! (by which I mean worst).
 
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#31
#31
BanditVol said:
Florida vs. Tennessee - Game Summary - September 24, 2022 - ESPN

I am pretty sure that's the highest ever against them, by a wide margin. I get that it's just a computer, but look at the numbers in that link.

1. We score twice as much as they do.
2. We allow slightly more than half as many points as they do.
3. We have an above average rush attack, they are 113th in the country in run defense.


The grain of salt is that we have played a much easier schedule, both Ball State and Akron are just putrid teams....but at the same time UF only has two wins because both Utah and USF self-destructed at the end of the respective games.

I know the history of this series, I know all about the "mental hangups", etc....

But THIS Vol is very confident that we win comfortably, and may just beat the brakes off of them.

Heupel is only 15 games in, but seems to do a good job of having the team approach every game the same way.

We will see! I am really looking forward to it. I honestly can't recall the last time I said that, maybe 2015 or 2016, but I am confident we win.
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For what it’s worth, USF won 3 games last year.
 
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#33
#33
Is it just me or does all this Pro-VOls stuff make you all a bit nervous too? I mean even Gator forums look like they have given up....Seriously read some of the stuff that they are posting in their own forums and I swear 1 year ago If I had said those posts existed you'd think I was insane. 87% is insanely high for a P5conference game. I feel like we are all being set up for a huge letdown.

I mean I seriously think people ae getting too caught up in the moment. Florida has looked very bad the last 2 games. But they are 2-1 not 0-3. they beat Utah which was a top 10 team at the time and has gotten back up to 13 after that loss. After that game people were mentioning Richardson and Heisman in the same paragraph. Florida does not lack talent. They're a lot like our Vols the past decade. We have had talent (NFL rosters prove that) but we didn't have the staff to put it all together. Florida is in a situation where, if the light comes on for Richardson they become a really scary team. Much like the JG/Pruitt era Vols. The dude had elite talent it just the lights not on.. My fear is the bulb pops on filed by all the negative energy being pointed their way come this Saturday.

I feel like the worst possible way for us to go into this game is like this.. with them feeling like underdogs and disrespected. Those guys are gonna be insanely motivated and wanting to prove a point because they didn't get up for USF. I honestly think that we should and likely will win this game. But there is the BVS in the back of my mind whispering bad thoughts. In my heart I feel like this is the year, finally, we start the turnaround.

I finally know what it feels like to be a Falcons/Browns/Bengals/UKfootbal/USCe fan. Am I alone in this? Are the voices just in my head or do others get visited by the whispers?
 
#34
#34
casetopia said:
please let this finally be the year to get this monkey off our back. Go Vols!
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We got the monkey off our back in 2016. the secret will be to KEEP the monkey off our back. I think Heup might just be the one to do it consistently
 
#35
#35
knox-townVOL said:
For what it’s worth, USF won 3 games last year.
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A stat like that makes me think UF players & coaches overlooked USF and spent most of last week game planning and practicing for the Vols. These are college kids that don’t always bring their A game when playing what they think is a scrimmage. Make no mistake that UF will bring their A game on Saturday.

We won’t be playing the UF team that almost lost to USF.
 
#36
#36
We have had a better team than Florida many times over
the past 30 years and lost. If SOS had Peyton and Jamal
Lewis in the same backfield, he would never lose a game.
This year we have the better team AND the better coach.
 
#37
#37
DaddyChad said:
Fact is that Florida could be sitting at 0-3 right now and on the edge of self destructing..
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True, and I’m on record several times saying this is TN’s year to win this game, but if you’re gonna play the hypotheticals and “could be’s,” can’t you also say Florida could be 3-0? Vs KY, Florida gave up a pick six and another pick on the opponent’s 5 yard line, basically 14 points given away in a game they lost by 10.

This game stands on its own, records matter not.
 
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#38
#38
08Vol said:
This is going to be the best defense we’ve played this year so our offense won’t look as good.
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In the early part of the season, statistical analysis of this nature is suspect.

Every team we've played so far has played, at most, 3 games this season. That means the Vols are at least one-third of the reason for their stats being as they are. And actually, more than that. If you look into the numbers, we are more than half the reason.*

Are their defenses truly that weak? Or is it instead that they had to play a team like the Vols with such a potent offense? The latter, I think.

Florida hasn't had to do that yet. Utah and Kentucky both have stout, but plodding, offenses. They spend a lot of time getting down the field. Yes, Florida gave up 446 yards to Utah, but that says more about Florida's defense than Utah's offense. Keep in mind, they gave up over 400 yards to South Florida, too.

In short, Florida is probably not the best defense we've played this year. That's probably Pitt.

I'm not saying this won't be a close game. It could be. Florida is a peer competitor. If they bring their A game and our offense is a tad off as they were last week, it could be a dog fight.

On the other hand, if we come in blazing, as we know our offense can, with our improved defense, we might beat them by 20.

Go Vols!


* How more? How the heck more than half? Consider the example of Ball State. Thus far, they have played the Vols, Western Michigan, and Murray State. Their defense gave up 569 yards to us, 437 to WMU, and 155 yards to Murray State. We skewed them toward terrible. The per-game average with us in the mix is almost 400 yards surrendered (85th out of the 130 FBS teams). Take us out, and the average would drop to below 300 yards per game (they would be 31st in the nation).

It's about the same for Pitt. They gave West Virginia 404 yards, surrendered 416 to us, and only gave up 180 to WMU. Including us, their per game yards allowed is 333 (45th in the nation). If they hadn't played us, it would be 292 (28th).

Akron's numbers: 453 to St Francis, 496 to Michigan State, and a whopping 676 yards to us. Yes, they truly suck as a defense. But we're still the ones skewing their results toward rock bottom (129th in the FBS).

Bottom line: with every team only having played 3 other teams, you can't accurately compare stats of teams we HAVE played against those of teams we HAVEN'T YET played. We're the difference maker.
 
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#39
#39
We need to win this one against FLA. The LSU game is getting tougher every week. They really should have beaten FSU and be sitting at 3-0 right now.
 
#40
#40
08Vol said:
This is going to be the best defense we’ve played this year so our offense won’t look as good. We are weak at RB right now and that hurts with the matchups.
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Florida’s scoring D is ranked 76th.

Pitt is better and Tennessee played at Pitt.

Florida’s total D is 77th.

pitt’s total D is 45th…..much better than Florida….and again Tennessee played at Pitt.

In NO way is Florida’s D “the best Tennessee has seen.” In fact Florida’s D is NOT good.

Tennessee “May” be weak at RB……that could be subjective; however Florida is HORRIBLE at run D…..113th in the country (no subjective needed, that is a fact).


Saturday will be the best run D “Florida” has seen so far this season.
 
#41
#41
Jaws said:
True, and I’m on record several times saying this is TN’s year to win this game, but if you’re gonna play the hypotheticals and “could be’s,” can’t you also say Florida could be 3-0? Vs KY, Florida gave up a pick six and another pick on the opponent’s 5 yard line, basically 14 points given away in a game they lost by 10.

This game stands on its own, records matter not.
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You’ve got to go through some serious mental gymnastics to give Florida that game.
 
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