East Tennessee Weather II

#2,426
#2,426
~Severe Weather Alert~

There is a Slight Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for the Plateau and southern valley. There is a marginal risk for everyone else.

Timing: afternoon into the early evening hours.

Hazards:

- Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph is the primary threat
- Large hail up to quarter size is possible.
- An isolated tornado or 2 can’t be ruled out, especially for southern portions of East TN.

VK’s thoughts: Similar setup to the last storm system, although this one isn‘t quite as strong at least for our area. The big thing to watch like last time will be if the warm front makes it into East TN this afternoon. Hoping that it doesn’t hit the southern valley hard, as I’m sure folks are still recovering from the last storm.
 
#2,427
#2,427
Update:

Everyone outside of Chattanooga has been downgraded to a marginal risk. It looks like the ongoing storms south of us is cutting off moisture and instability in our area. I still think we could see a couple isolated strong to severe storms, but the threat overall is decreasing.
 
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#2,428
#2,428
There's a chance of a few supercells popping up today in East Tennessee.

Hodograph soundings don't look too terribly great, but the shear is decent. It all depends on whether the sun can destabilize the air this afternoon IMO.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the
southern Appalachians. A few strong storms may also occur across
South Florida.

...Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians...
Water vapor imagery this morning features an eastward-shifting
shortwave trough over the Ozarks/nearby Mississippi River Valley.
Modest additional trough amplification is expected to occur today,
with an east/northeastward-spreading mid-level speed max (60-80 kt
at 500 mb) over the Tennessee Valley toward the southern
Appalachians. In response, a weak surface low is expected to track
from the Missouri Bootheel vicinity into Kentucky and roughly
parallel the Ohio River as it develops northeastward through
tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures will spread east, along/north
of the cyclonic jet such that steep lapse rates will be common,
especially as some boundary-layer warming is anticipated immediately
ahead of the Pacific front.

While moisture is seasonally low across the Gulf States into the
Tennessee Valley, 50s F surface dew points should yield modest
SBCAPE north of the jet where 500 mb temperatures are forecast to be
as cool as -18C at peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest surface
parcels will reach convective temperature by 17-18z and isolated
thunderstorms should initiate within the exit region of
aforementioned jet, with initial development most likely across
middle/eastern Tennessee.

Shear profiles favor supercells and hail may be the greatest threat
with this activity; although, low-level shear appears adequate for
some tornado potential. Robust convection should spread toward the
southern Appalachians by evening where it will encounter a wedge
front anchored east of the mountains. Some erosion of the cool
boundary layer will be noted across South Carolina into western
North Carolina where severe storms will also be possible.
 
#2,429
#2,429
~Severe Weather Alert~

There is a slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across East TN today.

Timing: This afternoon into the early evening.

Hazards:

Large hail up to half dollar size is the primary threat, with damaging winds in excess of 60 mph also possible. An isolated tornado or 2 can’t be ruled out.

VK’s thoughts: This is an interesting setup, as there is not much moisture to work with, yet the dynamics in the mid and upper levels are pretty good. Because of the low amount of moisture from the gulf, the threat is conditional today. If the storms can develop today, they’ll primarily be supercells, which is why the hail threat is the primary one. The wind shear is decent enough for a potential tornado or 2, but it’s not a big concern.
 
#2,431
#2,431
Update:

Cells are starting to form in the southern valley and plateau. While they are not severe at this time, they are showing signs of strengthening.
 
#2,432
#2,432
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Polk County in east Tennessee...
Southern McMinn County in east Tennessee...
Central Monroe County in east Tennessee...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 517 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Etowah, or 9
miles north of Benton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Athens, Madisonville, Etowah, Englewood, Vonore, Tellico Plains,
Fort Loudon State Park, Tariffville, McGee Carson Peninsula and
Bullet Creek.
Click to expand...
 
#2,433
#2,433
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Morgan County in east Tennessee...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 527 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairfield
Glade, or 11 miles northwest of Rockwood, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Wartburg, Harriman, Oakdale, Coalfield, Pine Orchard, Frozen Head
State Park and Petros.
Click to expand...
 
#2,434
#2,434
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Cherokee County in southwestern North Carolina...
Central Polk County in east Tennessee...
Southern Monroe County in east Tennessee...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 530 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Benton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Benton, Tellico Plains, Coker Creek, Violet, Citico, Turtletown,
Bullet Creek, Reliance, Archville and Hiwassee Ocoee State Park.
Click to expand...
 
#2,437
#2,437
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Blount County in east Tennessee...
Northeastern Monroe County in east Tennessee...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 551 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Madisonville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area,
Vonore, Townsend, Fort Loudon State Park, Tariffville, McGee Carson
Peninsula, Walland, Happy Valley and Citico Beach.
Click to expand...
 
#2,438
#2,438
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Morgan County in east Tennessee...
Anderson County in east Tennessee...
Southwestern Campbell County in east Tennessee...
Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 602 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wartburg,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Clinton, La Follette, Wartburg, Oliver Springs, Jacksboro,
Caryville, Rocky Top, Norris, Oakdale and Norris Dam State Park.
Click to expand...
 
#2,440
#2,440
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far northern Georgia
Far southwest North Carolina
Northwest South Carolina
Eastern Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday evening from 610 PM until 1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Multiple, low-topped supercells will continue to pose a
risk for a couple tornadoes and severe hail, before weakening later
this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Crossville
TN to 15 miles northeast of Greenville SC. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
 
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#2,441
#2,441
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Posting for the Southern KY posters)

The National Weather Service in JACKSON KY has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky...
Northeastern Bell County in southeastern Kentucky...
Northeastern Knox County in southeastern Kentucky...
Southern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky...
Southeastern Clay County in southeastern Kentucky...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 619 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Erose, or 11 miles north of Pineville, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Sandy Fork around 630 PM EDT.
Spruce Pine around 635 PM EDT.
Mozelle around 640 PM EDT.
Bledsoe around 645 PM EDT.
Click to expand...
 
#2,442
#2,442
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Cherokee County in southwestern North Carolina...
Eastern Polk County in east Tennessee...
Southern Monroe County in east Tennessee...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 637 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest
of Ducktown, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Tellico Plains, Coker Creek, Citico Beach, Violet, Citico,
Turtletown, Bullet Creek, Reliance, Archville and Unaka.
Click to expand...
 
#2,444
#2,444
Today’s the anniversary of the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. I have never seen intensity of storms as I did that night. Those storms were on a different, frightening level.
 
#2,445
#2,445
headhunter15 said:
Today’s the anniversary of the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. I have never seen intensity of storms as I did that night. Those storms were on a different, frightening level.
Click to expand...

I agree. Those storms were something else. I was in the north side of the Ringgold/Apison storm and remember the constant lightning. So much energy.
 
#2,450
#2,450
Watch Alert!!!!!!

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 11:00 PM for areas along and west of Interstate 75.
 
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