East Tennessee Weather II

I don't think the Feb 12 storm is going to materialize. Going to be too warm. Still a possibility coming around the 16th-20th as another polar vortex chunk looks to drop off around that time.
 
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Feb 16 storm starting to narrow down. Looks more like the 15th now. And it looks to be an identical, but maybe less powerful storm as the one we had last week. That's about the time the polar vortex looks to drop us off another egg. A lot can change until then, but I think that's going to be our best shot at meaningful snowfall until maybe early March. There is another signal showing up about 4 or 5 days after this one, but right now the track looks to be too northern and the arctic air will be retreating by that time.
 
Feb 16 storm starting to narrow down. Looks more like the 15th now. And it looks to be an identical, but maybe less powerful storm as the one we had last week. That's about the time the polar vortex looks to drop us off another egg. A lot can change until then, but I think that's going to be our best shot at meaningful snowfall until maybe early March. There is another signal showing up about 4 or 5 days after this one, but right now the track looks to be too northern and the arctic air will be retreating by that time.
Polar vortex doesn't look to be dipping low enough for anything but rain for the next week or two. Maybe a slight chance of some wintry around the 26th. There will be a trough moving through at about that time. Will there be any precip with it?
 
Well I put away all my winter stuff and shut ski season down for the year. Really bad winter for people like me that love it
 
It looks like just rain for the storm I was looking at for the 25th/26th. The trough is not going match up and it's going to swing out earlier than I thought it would.
I still think we are going to get another few good chances at snow here in East TN though.
 
Well, I was right again. Maybe. Looks like we might get a little clipper coinciding with a polar blast early to mid next week. Doesn't look to be anything major. Maybe frozen mix?
 
Heads up!

There is a marginal risk for strong to possibly severe storms for most of East TN (excluding far southeast TN and the Tri-Cities area) today.

Timing: Afternoon into the evening hours.

Impacts: Large hail up to Quarter size is the primary threat. The damaging wind threat is very low and there is no tornado threat.


The storms will be isolated, so not everyone is going to see them. The best chances appear to be along and south of interstate 40.
 
Reed and Ryan have been doing a lot of wishcasting the past week.

Going to be some storms early this week but throwing out April 2011 as a comparable was just clout and click chasing...
 

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