East Tennessee Weather II

[headhunter15]

Sunday has the potential for a boom or bust event.

 

[hUTch2002]

Sunday has the potential for a boom or bust event.

We’re in the valley. It’s always bust.

 

[rocktopper16]

A shift 50 miles could be so beneficial for our viewing area.

 

[hUTch2002]

A shift 50 miles could be so beneficial for our viewing area.

That’s always the case though. 50 air miles from Knoxville in one direction is Crossville and 50 air miles in another direction is Gatlinburg.

 

[hUTch2002]

I had a gut feeling this Winter would be super light on the snow and it’s looking that way. We had the one snow on 12/26 but I think that’s going to be it this time. What do you all that know way more than I do think? Do you think we’re done this Winter as far as snow or do you think we get something late Feb or in March?

We’re very much due a snowy Winter. I think we will get one in the next 2-3 years.

 

[davethevol]

I had a gut feeling this Winter would be super light on the snow and it’s looking that way. We had the one snow on 12/26 but I think that’s going to be it this time. What do you all that know way more than I do think? Do you think we’re done this Winter as far as snow or do you think we get something late Feb or in March?

We’re very much due a snowy Winter. I think we will get one in the next 2-3 years.

I bet we get at least one snow by the middle of March.

 

[Vol knight]

~Severe Weather Bulletin~

There is a Slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for the plateau and Chattanooga (and surrounding areas of Chattanooga), and there is a Marginal risk for the western half of the valley (including Knoxville) this evening.

Timing: Between 5 and 10 PM EST

Impacts:

1. The primary threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.
2. A brief tornado or 2 is possible, especially in the plateau.
3. Flooding is also a concern.

 

[jmacvols1]

Tornado data by county spotlighted by health department - WBBJ TV

 

[headhunter15]

Tornado data by county spotlighted by health department - WBBJ TV

Nashville, Dickson, and Memphis are the targets apparently.

My county, Hamblen, sitting at 3. Does anyone know the ratings for the Hamblen County tornados?

 

[TennesseeFan07]

Why is it so hot today?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Nashville, Dickson, and Memphis are the targets apparently.

My county, Hamblen, sitting at 3. Does anyone know the ratings for the Hamblen County tornados?

I'd say the population density and much more limited radars (from 1950-1990 especially) probably led to the higher numbers for Nashville and Memphis....

 

[volsarelife1]

Still a long ways out. But next Friday/Saturday could be something to keep an eye. 4 straight model runs now showing snow

 

[vols 30]

Why is it so hot today?

Global warming

 

[hUTch2002]

Still a long ways out. But next Friday/Saturday could be something to keep an eye. 4 straight model runs now showing snow

I hope you’re right but what I’m seeing in the forecast right now looks like it’ll be too warm.

 

[bigdaddy]

I hope you’re right but what I’m seeing in the forecast right now looks like it’ll be too warm.

Man my redbuds are in almost full bloom and several other trees as well. Hope they don’t die

 

[davethevol]

Man my redbuds are in almost full bloom and several other trees as well. Hope they don’t die

My fear is we are going to have at least one more severe cold weather front and there will horrible plant damage.

 

[hUTch2002]

My fear is we are going to have at least one more severe cold weather front and there will horrible plant damage.

This is East TN and it has warmed up way too fast and way too early so you can count on another strong cold snap.

 

[Matt2496]

Looking like a pretty decent chance of severe weather Friday.

 

[OrangeTsar]

The US weather map this week

 

[headhunter15]

Looking like a pretty decent chance of severe weather Friday.

What is the timing?

 

[Vol knight]

I'm going to post my thoughts on Friday's system tomorrow morning. I'm thinking about changing the format of my severe weather bulletins/alerts/outbreak. Here's an example of what I'm thinking right now:

[Severe Weather Alert]

Severe risk and locations: Slight (Plateau, Southern and Central Valley), Marginal (Northeast TN, Mountains, and Foothills)

Timing: 3-6PM Plateau, 4-7PM Valley, 5-8PM Northeast TN and Mountains

Damaging Wind Threat: Medium (Winds in excess of 60 mph)
Hail Threat: Low (up to Quarter size)
Tornado Threat: Very Low (An isolated tornado can't be ruled out)
Flooding Threat: Medium (1-2 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts possible)

VK's thoughts:

What do you guys think about this format?

 

[davethevol]

Still looking severe weather tomorrow night?

 

[Vol knight]

[Severe Weather Alert]

Severe risk and locations: Slight (All of East TN)

Timing: The timing has some uncertainty, but right now I would say between midday and late afternoon.

Damaging Wind Threat: High (Winds in excess of 70mph are possible)

Hail threat: Very Low (If any Hail occurs, it will be in the pea to penny size)

Tornado Threat: Low (If enough instability is present, a couple tornadoes are possible)

Flooding Threat: High (With the ground already saturated, it won't take much for water to rise in flood prone areas especially)

VK's thoughts: I will post something here later when I have a chance.

 

[davethevol]

The just cancelled Knox County Schools for tomorrow due to the weather potential.

 

[headhunter15]

The just cancelled Knox County Schools for tomorrow due to the weather potential.

Cancelled Cocke Co. as well.