East Tennessee Weather II

#4,101
#4,101
hUTch2002 said:
I’m not sure what models you’re using but the ones I see are calling for a dusting. Strangely, the GEM (I have no idea what that means) is calling for something pretty nasty mid to late next week but none of the other models are showing it.
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Understandably, the system this week will be getting the most attention, but what's the latest on this? I'm supposed to be flying overseas next Thursday, first out of Knoxville and then DC, and am obviously hoping the weather won't cause too much disruption.
 
#4,102
#4,102
bleedorange0037 said:
Understandably, the system this week will be getting the most attention, but what's the latest on this? I'm supposed to be flying overseas next Thursday, first out of Knoxville and then DC, and am obviously hoping the weather won't cause too much disruption.
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Looks to me like there’s nothing coming next week. We warm back up. I’m not sure why the GEM was so wacky.
 
#4,104
#4,104
hUTch2002 said:
@MetVol

What are you thinking as far as snow for Western Knox County with this coming system?
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I'm not impressed with the snow totals. I really don't think west Knox gets more than a dusting to a half-inch or so. I do think we could see some enhanced low-level frontogenesis as the cold air converges west of the mountains near the foothills which could create an enhanced band with some 1-3" values east of Knoxville. I think it could look something like this, although actual values could be a little less.

snku_acc.us_ov.png


The real story is going to be the cold air. I honestly can't recall an arctic airmass of this magnitude in my memory. We'll be near zero Friday morning. This is going to be a real test on the power grid and our infrastructure. The grid will most likely handle it, but probably a good idea to conserve power and focus on plugging in and using necessities on Friday/Saturday. Be a good idea to have some backup heat sources as well (kerosene heaters, fireplace, etc) that don't rely on electricity just in case your power goes out for a time.
 
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#4,106
#4,106
If anyone uses electricity for their heat, now is the time to get an alternative heating source in case the power goes out. With the strong winds and extremely cold temperatures, power outages are definitely a possibility.
 
#4,107
#4,107
Vol knight said:
If anyone uses electricity for their heat, now is the time to get an alternative heating source in case the power goes out. With the strong winds and extremely cold temperatures, power outages are definitely a possibility.
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Adding to this; leave a steady stream of hot water running to ensure pipes won’t freeze along with opening cabinets for heat to get to pipes and locate your water main incase of a break (a crescent wrench should work to turn it off in a emergency).
 
#4,111
#4,111
volsarelife1 said:
Could we end up possibly be lucky for once and have the cold air arrive while still having the moisture in place
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Trending that way. It’ll be very interesting to see how the plateau interacts with the cold air moving into the valley!
 
#4,114
#4,114
For those who are wondering what RT is talking about in the post above mine:

In the Area Forecast Discussion that MRX puts out twice a day, this is what one of the meteorologists said about this upcoming system:

I have been forecasting in the Southeast for 23 years, and I have
never seen an outbreak of combined cold and wind like this one.
This will be a potentially life-threatening cold event if
precautions are not taken. Please see our office social media
pages for infographics on how to stay safe.
Click to expand...
 
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#4,115
#4,115
Vol knight said:
For those who are wondering what RT is talking about in the post above mine:

In the Area Forecast Discussion that MRX puts out twice a day, this is what one of the meteorologists said about this upcoming system:
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I have always heard people talk about 1985 being very cold at points. How does this stack up?
 
#4,117
#4,117
Vol knight said:
The thing about January of 85 is that there was several inches of snow on the ground and the actual temperature (not wind chill) in Knoxville was -27°.
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That was a doozy! Are you going to stay up tonight to watch how the pleasure interacts with the system?
 
#4,118
#4,118
Vol knight said:
For those who are wondering what RT is talking about in the post above mine:

In the Area Forecast Discussion that MRX puts out twice a day, this is what one of the meteorologists said about this upcoming system:
Click to expand...

I'll second that. We haven't seen this combination of wind and cold in a long time. We've been down around zero on many occasions, but not this widespread cold and wind. The cold is going to be a bigger issue than the snow.

However, even just a little snow with these temperatures can cause some icy, bad travel.

The HRRR is showing some of the enhanced low-level convergence west of the mountains that I was referring to a couple days ago which causes some slightly higher snow totals east of Knoxville compared to the rest of the valley.

1671748824965.png
 
#4,122
#4,122
rocktopper16 said:
All the rain we received will make for some poor conditions after the temperature gets well below freezing.
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I’m disappointed in the lack of snow. I was at least hoping for a solid coating. We sure ended up way less than that original GFS prediction. Of course that’s to be expected here in the valley. We only get the really big snows once a decade, if that.
 
#4,123
#4,123
I live in middle TN in rural area. it's 8 degrees on back porch and the ground was covered with light snow last night. The electricity and water are fine so far.
 
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