East Tennessee Weather II

MetVol

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Any update for the Charlotte area? The weather people here are not really committing to anything yet.
I'd say they're not really commiting yet because Charlotte is right on the border of many precip types. May get some snow and ice. It's a location that could get significant amounts of freezing rain or snow depending on storm track and how strong the cold air dam wedge is on the east side of the Appalachians.
 
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Get ready for it. The snow bandit is going to win out across the Tennessee valley if this trends holds. May get some light accumulation on the front end, or especially the back end, but nothing significant with the southeasterly low level flow.
Definitely in comparison to areas east and west of us. The main question for the valley is how much moisture is left over after the downsloping ends and winds shift to the northeast? GFS has a moderate amount of moisture left over, but still enough for a couple of inches for most of the valley. Nam looks to be very aggressive.
 
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NAM is showing the low farther south which would be good for East Tennessee
What is interesting is that the early morning discussion from Morristown appeared to focus on the 0z NAM run to show that they're not expecting much for the valley. Now that the 12z run is showing a significant winter storm, will they back off of it?
 

MetVol

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Definitely in comparison to areas east and west of us. The main question for the valley is how much moisture is left over after the downsloping ends and winds shift to the northeast? GFS has a moderate amount of moisture left over, but still enough for a couple of inches for most of the valley. Nam looks to be very aggressive.
I'd agree. Southeast flow always gives us the warm nose that converts precip type over to rain, sleet, or freezing rain depending on the strength of the surface cold air. Looks like we'll get decent dynamic cooling on Sunday afternoon with some snow for lower elevations. Big question is how much moisture is left and where does the new surface low form.

NAM is showing the low farther south which would be good for East Tennessee
Would help with more cold surface air. Still going to get the warm nose with the SE flow which will complicate precip types.

What is interesting is that the early morning discussion from Morristown appeared to focus on the 0z NAM run to show that they're not expecting much for the valley. Now that the 12z run is showing a significant winter storm, will they back off of it?
They're not going to change much on one model run, and the 12z NAM continues the same complicated issue with that warm nose aloft extending along the western foothills of the Appalachians. What scares me most about the NAM is it's insistence on the colder surface air in addition to the warm nose = fzra. That'd be bad for everyone.
 

MetVol

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Is that ever right though? Seems not.
The ECMWF makes a reasonable case for a southerly track, but you're still going to deal with mixed precip. I mean I wouldn't get too excited about snow in the valley around Knoxville at this point. Too many things that can go wrong to limit accumulation. You're going to get a warm nose aloft, so there's going to be mixed precip at times with that SE flow. Still the best chance for accumulating snow is very early in the event, or moreso, toward the end as dynamic cooling transitions everything to snow.
 

MetVol

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is the Cosby/Newport area considered to be in the Valley? I'm new to the area.
Kind of foothills. If you're in the lower elevations around there, you'll experience more similar weather to valley locations. That's an area that could see quite a bit of mixed precipitation back and forth. Still over 48 hours though, so we'll see how this begins to come together.
 
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bevman

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Kind of foothills. If you're in the lower elevations around there, you'll experience more similar weather to valley locations. That's an area that could see quite a bit of mixed precipitation back and forth. Still over 48 hours though, so we'll see how this begins to come together.
I'm at about 1700ft. Arch way , Cosby Tennessee. Appreciate the info , were planning on coming up Friday from SC and staying until Monday.
 
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I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 8+ in all of East Tennessee. Need the 850 to drop a bit lower and we all would cash in.
Honestly at this point it is so borderline that I would be surprised with a dusting to 1 inch for much of the valley or 4 to 8 inches for much of the valley. There are just so many factors that come into play. Take the warm nose for example that would likely give a good chunk of the valley rain or a mix. Well with heavier bursts of precip in some areas that warm nose will get gobbled up at least for a bit with dynamic cooling if it is shallow enough. Where everything sets up, who knows? Hopefully we have better answers tomorrow AM. Would not be surprised to see a winter storm watch issued for much of the area tomorrow.
 

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