Early line set for Tennessee-Florida

#1
VolsnRavens

VolsnRavens

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#1
Early line set for Tennessee-Florida


"It’s Tuesday, March 19th. I’m writing a post about a college football gambling line being released. College football is definitely king.
Sportsbetting.ag released several opening lines today, including the spread for Tennessee vs. Florida. The Gators and Vols will meeting on their traditional September date in 2019. Unsurprisingly, Florida is favored. However, the number is pretty large.
Florida has opened as 14.5 point favorites over Tennessee, which makes sense considering the differing directions the programs went last season. Dan Mullen was able to capitalize pretty quickly with the talent he inherited. As we know, it was a struggle for Jeremy Pruitt, who landed in a tougher spot.
The Gators returning production for 2019 ranks 27th in the nation, while Tennessee’s ranks 2nd.
Last year’s matchup in Knoxville was filled with Tennessee mistakes from the opening offensive possession. Tennessee’s offensive line got worked early and often, forcing mistakes from Jarrett Guarantano. Every time the Vols found an ounce of momentum, Florida squashed it by forcing another soul-crushing turnover.
This year’s game will be played in The Swamp, which is part of that big number from the oddsmakers. It will be the first road game for Tennessee’s 2019 recruiting class, which features plenty of key pieces that are going to have to play early on.
Would you feel comfortable taking Tennessee +14.5 right this second?"

Looking at the sentence in bold, you would think that would make a difference. The 2nd most returning players. Our players are that far from the Florida players as far as recruiting rankings overall? Man, unfortunately, I think it shows where the program has been. That being said, I would take Tennessee at +14.5. I believe we will see a better product on the field this year, barring injuries. Go Vols!!
 
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#2
#2
I will take the 14.5 and believe it will drop by game day. Then, I might give the lower spread (I'm guessing 5 to 7) and straddle for a potential 2X win.
 
#3
#3
I think you're right. It's pretty clear they think more highly of UF's roster than ours at the moment, and to be honest, I've seen little on the field that would give me a reason to disagree. It's been the same thing for such a long time....UT is returning player x, y, z and we add all these "beasts" from the recruiting class so THIS is the year we make noise in the SECE race. And the same story unfolds. We get key injuries in spots we can least afford them. We have no depth at several key spots. We play some lackluster football against some lesser programs to start the season then get our annual beating vs UF. After that, reality sets in and we hope to survive the UGA, Bama games with our health, grab some wins against Missouri, KY, Vandy and usc in order to make a bowl. It's big orange groundhog day.

I expect a similar season this year. It's going to take several top shelf recruiting classes....flipping this roster...before we can start realistically going into games with the better SEC programs with a legitimate chance to beat them. Fortunately, Pruitt is focused on the LOS and that's very encouraging. He's also well along in changing the culture Butch let fester. The day this roster is filled with Pruitt recruits is a day we should really look forward to. Can't get here soon enough for me.
 
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#6
#6
VolsnRavens said:
Early line set for Tennessee-Florida


"It’s Tuesday, March 19th. I’m writing a post about a college football gambling line being released. College football is definitely king.
Sportsbetting.ag released several opening lines today, including the spread for Tennessee vs. Florida. The Gators and Vols will meeting on their traditional September date in 2019. Unsurprisingly, Florida is favored. However, the number is pretty large.
Florida has opened as 14.5 point favorites over Tennessee, which makes sense considering the differing directions the programs went last season. Dan Mullen was able to capitalize pretty quickly with the talent he inherited. As we know, it was a struggle for Jeremy Pruitt, who landed in a tougher spot.
The Gators returning production for 2019 ranks 27th in the nation, while Tennessee’s ranks 2nd.
Last year’s matchup in Knoxville was filled with Tennessee mistakes from the opening offensive possession. Tennessee’s offensive line got worked early and often, forcing mistakes from Jarrett Guarantano. Every time the Vols found an ounce of momentum, Florida squashed it by forcing another soul-crushing turnover.
This year’s game will be played in The Swamp, which is part of that big number from the oddsmakers. It will be the first road game for Tennessee’s 2019 recruiting class, which features plenty of key pieces that are going to have to play early on.
Would you feel comfortable taking Tennessee +14.5 right this second?"

Looking at the sentence in bold, you would think that would make a difference. The 2nd most returning players. Our players are that far from the Florida players as far as recruiting rankings overall? Man, unfortunately, I think it shows where the program has been. That being said, I would take Tennessee at +14.5. I believe we will see a better product on the field this year, barring injuries. Go Vols!!
Click to expand...
Take Florida and enjoy your winnings.

Also, returning the 2nd most production from THAT putrid team isn’t really a good thing imo.....we need to turn the roster over as quickly as possible and replace most of those players with good, legit SEC players....so that stat is fool’s gold imho.
 
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#7
#7
KBVol said:
Take Florida and enjoy your winnings.

Also, returning the 2nd most production from THAT putrid team isn’t really a good thing imo.....we need to turn the roster over as quickly as possible and replace most of those players with good, legit SEC players....so that stat is fool’s gold imho.
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It’s a sucker bet designed to take Tennessee fans money. Florida is a legit top 10 team. We are very much a work in progress. It should be a splash of cold water on those calling for 9-3. This year is about making a bowl and not losing by 25+ points in more than six games.
 
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#8
#8
CA_Vol is correct, it' a sucker bet. Since I'm an optimist that JP will have us a fine defense at some point, we aren't there yet. Be weary, but after this year I believe we'll be able to hang with anyone, Bubba included.
 
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#10
#10
Behr said:
I guess you guys are putting down life savings on this sure thing. Oh, you would BUT you don't bet? Gotcha.
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I do bet, a lot. My book isn’t taking bets for football season this early. I also have a personal policy against betting against my teams. That’s just me.
 
#11
#11
CA_Vol said:
I do bet, a lot. My book isn’t taking bets for football season this early. I also have a personal policy against betting against my teams. That’s just me.
Click to expand...

I see, that makes sense. Vegas better be thanking the stars you have a policy and your book ain't taking bets this early. I thought for sure you'd make up some excuse.
 
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#12
#12
There is no way to tell at the moment. It would be a safe bet to place your money on the Gators unfortunately. That is a rivalry that has gotten the better of us for too long to bet on a team that has shown signs of life but no proof yet that we can beat anyone that matters. I think that CJP has things moving in the right direction, but don't forget that Dan Mullen did a lot at Miss State and has had a year with UF now to get even better than last year. They are only 27th in returning players, but Mullen's M.O. is to develop players and beat teams that are supposed to be better than his, that is what he did at Miss State and that is what I imagine he will do at Florida given his history and the far superior talent, facilities, and support in Gainesville. Unfortunately Florida is getting better, not worse under Mullen. Maybe in a couple years, but I don't see it in 2019. I hope I am proven wrong.
 
#13
#13
Given how we played against UF in 2018 plus combined with the last two games (and how UF ended their season), 14.5 is too low.....

It's not a great spot for our Front 7 on D and young O-Line's first road game....
 
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#16
#16
I just don't see us playing as bad against the Gators as we did last year. I'm still taking TN with the points. We'll revisit in a few months and everyone can have their laughs. I'm ok with eating crow if we ish the bed. I just don't think we will.
 
#17
#17
alaVOL said:
CA_Vol is correct, it' a sucker bet. Since I'm an optimist that JP will have us a fine defense at some point, we aren't there yet. Be weary, but after this year I believe we'll be able to hang with anyone, Bubba included.
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CA_Vol said:
Frankly, until I see this new offensive line play a few game with some effectiveness, this spread looks accurate, especially considering we will also likely have trouble putting pressure on their QB with a totally new defensive line.
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Bingo. With our poor offensive line and no pass rush, every team in the conference is capable of blowing us out.

Florida is coming off a 10-win season and Jones is pushing Franks for the QB job... they could route us. If I were a betting man my money would be on the Gators.
 
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#18
#18
The spread is due to Mullen and Pruitt.
Not the players.
Mullen proved he can win with mediocre talent and Pruitt proved he couldn’t and went on to get destroyed by Candy.
Now maybe this will change with the new OC we have, but make no mistake that the odds makers don’t think Pruitt can hang with Mullen.

Personally, neither do I.
Hope I am wrong.
 
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#20
#20
Mullen has a returning QB..... That's huge for Florida.....

Mullen is a QB guru and I'd imagine Franks will be better than his first two years.
 
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#24
#24
Beat us by 26 last year with 5 TOs and a worse OL than this coming year. I think some of you are being over dramatic with how bad this year will be...
 
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#25
#25
mitzustu said:
Beat us by 26 last year with 5 TOs and a worse OL than this coming year. I think some of you are being over dramatic with how bad this year will be...
Click to expand...

Its TN vs UF. It really doesnt matter how good our team is. We just dont beat UF. We may squeak by with a last second win but it's statistically unlikely. I dont see us being able to compete with UF for maybe another 2 years. And even then it may be a stretch.
 
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