Drafted Vols Ranking As Recruits

#26
#26
Vol8188 said:
4 and 5 stars are rated that high based primarily on athletic ability, not consistent play. And no, coaching cannot close such a talent gap. You may occasionally out coach and beat a better team, but over the long run you'll lose more than you win.
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Agree.
 
#27
#27
pimo1 said:
Actually if you look at it every 3 star that is drafted in the first round is a big deal just from sheer numbers.

Reality is that scouting is a crapshoot and is even more of a crapshoot the further you go down the chain.

Scouting Active NFL players is easier because there are less variables in the mix. As you step down each level the variables increase exponentially and make it harder to scout in any real way. comparing a 4 star from TN to one from cali is a crapshoot because those 2 guys played in entirely different systems and environments.

The mere fact it (high school scouting) works as well as it does is kind of miraculous if you think about it.
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It's become less of a crap shoot with the big recruit events such as The Opening, and all the camps. You can put a 4 star guy from Tennessee with a 4-star from Cali.
 
#28
#28
1982Alum said:
So why is Butch going after 3 star recruits?

Answer: Because he is awful as a recruiter.
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Tennessee had the 6th most players drafted in college football in this year's draft. Clearly he's awful.

Dumbest post of the month nominee.
 
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#30
#30
Just take a look at Alabuba. They consistently sign the top rated recruiting classes as far as star ranking goes, and they consistently have the most players drafted in the first two rounds.
 
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#31
#31
Maybe the better way to look at it is how many four and five stars from Dobbs' class that were draft eligible did not get drafted?
 
#32
#32
FleeceItOut said:
Not even close.. try looking at the rankings for every player in the draft. Majority are not 4 and 5*'s
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Looking at the rivals site, they average around 33 5* ratings per year. Based on a quick review of the spreadsheet showing rankings of the draftees over the last few years, 5* recruits have a higher than 50% chance of getting drafted. That means that there is a greater than 50% chance of them translating those high school stars to the college level.
The shear volume of 4 and 3 stars was too much for me to waste my time with. Does anybody else have free time to calculate the probably of 4 or 3 stars going to the NFL?
 
#35
#35
HARTUPM said:
Just take a look at Alabuba. They consistently sign the top rated recruiting classes as far as star ranking goes, and they consistently have the most players drafted in the first two rounds.
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It is sickening how much talent came out of Bama this year in the draft, 7 in the first 2 rounds 10 total. It is even more sickening knowing than can fill those positions with players that are as good or better for next year.
 
#36
#36
Vol8188 said:
4 and 5 stars are rated that high based primarily on athletic ability, not consistent play. And no, coaching cannot close such a talent gap. You may occasionally out coach and beat a better team, but over the long run you'll lose more than you win.
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That might be how you see it, but that's now how the people that actually generate these reports state a 3-star rating.

ESPN
Good prospects: 79-70 [Three stars]
These players show flashes of dominance, but not on a consistent basis -- especially when matched up against the top players in the country. Players closer to a 79 rating possess BCS-caliber ability and the potential to be a quality starter or all-conference player. Players closer to a 70 rating are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects.

247
89-80 = Three-star prospect. These are the players who will develop into reliable starters for the college teams. They are among the best players in their region of the country, and are generally among the top 750 players in the nation.

If you are not developing your 3-star players into consistent performers, a-la the 4-star prospects, then still being at a 3-star-performance level, your NFL draft prospects are significantly lower. Coaching and development are not going to change the talent level, but they are going to refine it and improve consistency.
 
#37
#37
#38
#38
xpsyclonex2002 said:
Looking at the rivals site, they average around 33 5* ratings per year. Based on a quick review of the spreadsheet showing rankings of the draftees over the last few years, 5* recruits have a higher than 50% chance of getting drafted. That means that there is a greater than 50% chance of them translating those high school stars to the college level.
The shear volume of 4 and 3 stars was too much for me to waste my time with. Does anybody else have free time to calculate the probably of 4 or 3 stars going to the NFL?
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I think we all know those have to be under 50%.
 
#39
#39
BeardedVol said:
That might be how you see it, but that's now how the people that actually generate these reports state a 3-star rating.

ESPN
Good prospects: 79-70 [Three stars]
These players show flashes of dominance, but not on a consistent basis -- especially when matched up against the top players in the country. Players closer to a 79 rating possess BCS-caliber ability and the potential to be a quality starter or all-conference player. Players closer to a 70 rating are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects.

247
89-80 = Three-star prospect. These are the players who will develop into reliable starters for the college teams. They are among the best players in their region of the country, and are generally among the top 750 players in the nation.

If you are not developing your 3-star players into consistent performers, a-la the 4-star prospects, then still being at a 3-star-performance level, your NFL draft prospects are significantly lower. Coaching and development are not going to change the talent level, but they are going to refine it and improve consistency.
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You ignored everything that didn't meet your agenda. And only one of those statements actually did.

Everything else mentioned was about talent. Even claiming they're inconsistent against top talent, goes back to "they're not as talented".
 
#40
#40
Vol8188 said:
You ignored everything that didn't meet your agenda. And only one of those statements actually did.

Everything else mentioned was about talent. Even claiming they're inconsistent against top talent, goes back to "they're not as talented".
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How so? Scout rates a player relative to his peers, so if everyone is "meh" and you are just better than "meh" congrats, you set the bar for 5-star under their system. Rivals basically splits the ESPN/247 4-star ranking in half and calls the top half 4 stars, and the bottom half 3-stars. Rivals 2-star recruit ranking, "5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player" is in line with 247s three star ranking.
 
#41
#41
IN Jed said:
Curious as to the star ranking of Pro Bowl rosters (but not curious enough to actually do the work).
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Making the Pro-bowl isn't nearly as impressive as being named All-Pro. Take a look at the star ratings the most recent All-Pro team had coming out of high school. A lot of players make the Pro Bowl due to others deciding not to play or because of injuries
 
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#42
#42
The pro bowl isn't nowhere near as high a accomplishment as being a all-pro that is for sure. GBO!!!
 
#43
#43
Evet Vols said:
"Ten of the top 12 draft picks and 22 of the 32 first-rounders were 4 or 5 star prospects." - Barrett Sallee.

Stars matter
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And also stated on the draft show that a very low percentage of 1st round draft picks make any impact at all in the NFL.
 
#45
#45
#46
#46
Vol8188 said:
Because the majority of players are not 4 and 5 stars. Very few 5 stars are drafted because very few people are ranked as 5 stars
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Exactly. I counted 28 five stars on the list.Theres 60 schools in the power 5 where the majority of 5 stars go. 151 guys were drafted from power 5. Thats 19% of power 5 draftees being former 5 stars. They power 5 each get to take 25 recruits per year. Thats 1500 kids every year. And about 30 of them are 5 Stars. Thats 2% Of the total. So 5 Stars make up 2% Of the population and almost 20% of the draftees. Thats pretty strong evidence.
.
 
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#48
#48
Looking at averages from the different rounds for 2017 draft from the spreadsheet posted earlier:
Round 1 - 3.5 stars
Round 2 - 3.13
Round 3 - 2.7
Round 4 - 2.84
Round 5 - 2.58
Round 6 - 2.32
Round 7 - 2.43

It appears after the first 2 rounds stars from high school do not matter anymore. I would say based on this, 3* players can be developed into good NFL prospects obviously with the right attitude and coaching.

One note, Alabama had 4 - 5* players drafted in the first round. The average in the first round would have been closer to 3 if they were taken out of the equation. That's the problem we face playing Alabama, the team is always littered with first and second round talent.
 
#49
#49
billcox0625 said:
Looking at averages from the different rounds for 2017 draft from the spreadsheet posted earlier:
Round 1 - 3.5 stars
Round 2 - 3.13
Round 3 - 2.7
Round 4 - 2.84
Round 5 - 2.58
Round 6 - 2.32
Round 7 - 2.43

It appears after the first 2 rounds stars from high school do not matter anymore. I would say based on this, 3* players can be developed into good NFL prospects obviously with the right attitude and coaching.

One note, Alabama had 4 - 5* players drafted in the first round. The average in the first round would have been closer to 3 if they were taken out of the equation. That's the problem we face playing Alabama, the team is always littered with first and second round talent.
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Good stuff..even though the 3 stars get their chance there is a huge money difference in going in the top 2 rounds.
 
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