Draft Strategy

#1
C

CrybabyVol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2019
Messages
452
Likes
294
#1
If you're the Bengals, why would you NOT trade the first pick this year? Obviously it depends on the buyer, but hear me out. Burrow can have all the talent in the world, but it may go to waste with the surrounding cast you'll be able to establish around him. If someone is willing to give you a king's ransom, take it. 1. You could possibly still get Tua in this year's draft. As crazy it may seems, some teams may even prefer Tua over Burrow. 2. You have next year as a fail safe to select Lawrence or Fields. There will also inevitably be third dark horse candidate that emerges next year. If I have needs everywhere, I would take the capital if it was thrown at me and attempt to fall back on Tua or have the capital to move up next year (if they even need to move up). What do you guys think?
 
#2
#2
I’m in the camp of draft a QB until you get it right. Most important position on the team.
 
#3
#3
I think if you get an offer, you listen. You might get a Ricky Williams type deal that simply can't be passed up. I think Burrow had a fantastic season, but I do not think he is a sure thing in the NFL. Unless you think you have a sure thing, you listen to all offers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Plecoptera and cobbwebb0710
#4
#4
There is the old NFL Draft theory that you draft the best player on the board regardless of their position;) However the Bengals would be idiotic not to draft Joe Burrow:rolleyes:
 
#5
#5
CrybabyVol said:
If you're the Bengals, why would you NOT trade the first pick this year? Obviously it depends on the buyer, but hear me out. Burrow can have all the talent in the world, but it may go to waste with the surrounding cast you'll be able to establish around him. If someone is willing to give you a king's ransom, take it. 1. You could possibly still get Tua in this year's draft. As crazy it may seems, some teams may even prefer Tua over Burrow. 2. You have next year as a fail safe to select Lawrence or Fields. There will also inevitably be third dark horse candidate that emerges next year. If I have needs everywhere, I would take the capital if it was thrown at me and attempt to fall back on Tua or have the capital to move up next year (if they even need to move up). What do you guys think?
Click to expand...
The Cleveland Browns say, "Hold my beer."
 
#6
#6
37L1 said:
The Cleveland Browns say, "Hold my beer."
Click to expand...

That's sorta my point. IF (and there are no reports that anyone is offering) somebody offers you a multitude of good picks, why put your eggs in the basket of a player who has had ONE awesome season? If I can trade with somebody picking in the top ten and add their pick, their next two second round picks, another first round pick and whatever else, etc, and I can build a top-flite OL, draft a WR/TE to add with Mixon, and then still be looking at Fields or Lawerence next year ... I'm passing on Burrow. I think they are in a unique position. Never has there been a player like Burrow to be followed by exceptional alternatives the following year.
 
#7
#7
Isn't Burrow from the greater Cincinnati area? The merchandis revenue alone would make it almost impossible not to draft him.

It would immediately increase ticket sales as well.
 
#8
#8
CagleMtnVol said:
Isn't Burrow from the greater Cincinnati area? The merchandis revenue alone would make it almost impossible not to draft him.

It would immediately increase ticket sales as well.
Click to expand...

No, he was from Athens, Ohio, which is the area around Ohio University...pretty much the southeastern corner of the state (you’re an hour closer to Columbus, OH and Charleston, WV, at that point than you are Cincinnati...actually you’re almost halfway between the Columbus and Charleston travel wise).
 
#9
#9
Tua was the #1 pick in 2020 for nearly 2 years before his injury and casual fans didn't know who Burrow was until about halfway through this season. We're so reactionary and it's weird that people are suddenly so sure Burrow is better than Tua. I personally believe that Burrow looks more like a pro QB than Tua does and I'm more comfortable with him, but Tua has the stronger arm, he's younger, and is more proven. I don't trust myself (or anybody else) to make these close calls, so if they are offered a king's ransom for the #1 pick, take it.

I realize we are concerned about Tua's injury, but are we not also concerned about the short history of success for Burrow? And the fact that he had absolutely ridiculous weapons? He's never going to have a personnel advantage again like he did in college this past year. I know Tua had crazy weapons, but he stepped onto the field at 18 on the biggest stage and succeeded right away and did it for 3 years. Burrow didn't wow us until he was a 5th year senior. Think about it like this...he is older than Lamar Jackson.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: CrybabyVol
#10
#10
superdave1984 said:
I think if you get an offer, you listen. You might get a Ricky Williams type deal that simply can't be passed up. I think Burrow had a fantastic season, but I do not think he is a sure thing in the NFL. Unless you think you have a sure thing, you listen to all offers.
Click to expand...
It’s funny you say this because I have a feeling my Dolphins are gonna go for broke on Burrow. The Dolphins have 3 first round picks this year and are lacking at nearly every position on the field. I would like to see them draft some critical pieces in rd 1, like an offensive tackle, a CB and maybe a run stuffer. Get a couple of solid RB’s in rounds 2-3 and then “tank for Trevor” next year.🤓
Before anyone says it, yes, I am a Dolphins fan.
GBO!!
 
#11
#11
n_huffhines said:
Tua was the #1 pick in 2020 for nearly 2 years before his injury and casual fans didn't know who Burrow was until about halfway through this season. We're so reactionary and it's weird that people are suddenly so sure Burrow is better than Tua. I personally believe that Burrow looks more like a pro QB than Tua does and I'm more comfortable with him, but Tua has the stronger arm, he's younger, and is more proven. I don't trust myself (or anybody else) to make these close calls, so if they are offered a king's ransom for the #1 pick, take it.

I realize we are concerned about Tua's injury, but are we not also concerned about the short history of success for Burrow? And the fact that he had absolutely ridiculous weapons? He's never going to have a personnel advantage again like he did in college this past year. I know Tua had crazy weapons, but he stepped onto the field at 18 on the biggest stage and succeeded right away and did it for 3 years. Burrow didn't wow us until he was a 5th year senior. Think about it like this...he is older than Lamar Jackson.
Click to expand...

This is my point. I think it's the most unique posture a team has been in with the first pick. You can trade out and still may get Tua. I wouldn't take Tua based on his injury hx, but I'm not a doctor. Even if you don't get Tua, you can be in place to get Fields or Lawrence next year. I would trade this pick in a heart beat if someone offered me the moon. (I also firmly believe that the QB position has gotten dramatically overvalued. I would not get Mahomes $50 million a year. I would invest half of that in my offensive and defensive lines).
 
#12
#12
CrybabyVol said:
This is my point. I think it's the most unique posture a team has been in with the first pick. You can trade out and still may get Tua. I wouldn't take Tua based on his injury hx, but I'm not a doctor. Even if you don't get Tua, you can be in place to get Fields or Lawrence next year. I would trade this pick in a heart beat if someone offered me the moon. (I also firmly believe that the QB position has gotten dramatically overvalued. I would not get Mahomes $50 million a year. I would invest half of that in my offensive and defensive lines).
Click to expand...

So here is the thing...it is dramatically overvalued, but it's still the highest value position. Since they capped contracts for draftees, hitting on a good QB with a rookie contract is such a huge advantage. Hitting on a QB that needs a few years to become good, not such an advantage. By the time he can get you to a SB, you gotta pay him $20m+. A qualified, well-paid QB is a great way to get to the playoffs, but it's not a great way to win the SB. Jimmy G has this huge contract, but his cap hit was only $19m this year. 14 QB's make more than that this year. 31 QB's made more than Mahomes. Tom Brady was 11th most paid last year. Goff was 26th. In 2017, Brady was 20th. Foles + Wentz combined for 23rd.

Here is the history of 1st rd QB's taken this century...not a good track record. Only one guy who was the 1st QB taken in the draft won a title (Eli). Depending on how you value them, only about 12 of the 56 have proven to be successful picks. 4 out of 56 won a SB, so just 7% of them. 7%!

1579707568605.png
 
Last edited:
#13
#13
n_huffhines said:
So here is the thing...it is dramatically overvalued, but it's still the highest value position. Since they capped contracts for draftees, hitting on a good QB with a rookie contract is such a huge advantage. Hitting on a QB that needs a few years to become good, not such an advantage. By the time he can get you to a SB, you gotta pay him $20m+. A qualified, well-paid QB is a great way to get to the playoffs, but it's not a great way to win the SB. Jimmy G has this huge contract, but his cap hit was only $19m this year. 14 QB's make more than that this year. 31 QB's made more than Mahomes. Tom Brady was 11th most paid last year. Goff was 26th. In 2017, Brady was 20th. Foles + Wentz combined for 23rd.

Here is the history of 1st rd QB's taken this century...not a good track record. Only one guy who was the 1st QB taken in the draft won a title (Eli).

View attachment 255770
Click to expand...

So if I'm the Bengals, I'm going to use that over inflation to my advantage. Let somebody else give me the world for a guy that has had one exceptional season, then I can still get another guy next season. I think it's absolutely fascinating. The NFL draft is my favorite sporting event of the year besides when UF plays UGA. Now that UT players are getting back into it, it's even better.
 
#14
#14
CrybabyVol said:
So if I'm the Bengals, I'm going to use that over inflation to my advantage. Let somebody else give me the world for a guy that has had one exceptional season, then I can still get another guy next season. I think it's absolutely fascinating. The NFL draft is my favorite sporting event of the year besides when UF plays UGA. Now that UT players are getting back into it, it's even better.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if it's an offer that's too good to refuse, but I do like Burrow. I'd wanna see three #1's and a couple more within the first 3 rounds. The Bengals need so much more to put a young QB in a position to succeed. If you take Tua and let him sit a year, you have a good draft next year too and Tua's set up for success in the last 3 years of the rookie contract. If you take Burrow and go 6-10 next year, where does that get you for the last 3 years of the rookie contract?

It's a really hard choice.
 
#15
#15
n_huffhines said:
Yeah, if it's an offer that's too good to refuse, but I do like Burrow. I'd wanna see three #1's and a couple more within the first 3 rounds. The Bengals need so much more to put a young QB in a position to succeed. If you take Tua and let him sit a year, you have a good draft next year too and Tua's set up for success in the last 3 years of the rookie contract. If you take Burrow and go 6-10 next year, where does that get you for the last 3 years of the rookie contract?

It's a really hard choice.
Click to expand...

I think it's all dependent on where the three number ones come from. The Jags just traded Jalen Ramsey for two number ones, and the CB position is not as important as the QB position. If you are the trader and you are picking in the top 10, your number ones are worth more than say the Titans. Do the Panthers trade the world to get Burrow and match him back up with Brady? That's the most likely scenario. If the Panthers offered me their first, their second this year and next, their first next year, and two thirds, I'd do it. I could also see the Lions doing a Trubisky-type move and have Burrow sit behind Stafford for a year.
 
#16
#16
cobbwebb0710 said:
It’s funny you say this because I have a feeling my Dolphins are gonna go for broke on Burrow. The Dolphins have 3 first round picks this year and are lacking at nearly every position on the field. I would like to see them draft some critical pieces in rd 1, like an offensive tackle, a CB and maybe a run stuffer. Get a couple of solid RB’s in rounds 2-3 and then “tank for Trevor” next year.🤓
Before anyone says it, yes, I am a Dolphins fan.
GBO!!
Click to expand...
The Dolphins would be historically stupid to mortgage all that for Burrow. As you pointed out, with the draft picks they have they can make some smart trades and really build for the future. Get o-line, DB, and pass rush and a couple really solid WR and maybe Rosen can be a really good QB. They wouldn't need Lawrence, but can you imagine the offers they would get if they had the #1 next year?
 
  • Like
Reactions: cobbwebb0710
#17
#17
superdave1984 said:
The Dolphins would be historically stupid to mortgage all that for Burrow. As you pointed out, with the draft picks they have they can make some smart trades and really build for the future. Get o-line, DB, and pass rush and a couple really solid WR and maybe Rosen can be a really good QB. They wouldn't need Lawrence, but can you imagine the offers they would get if they had the #1 next year?
Click to expand...
You’re first sentence says all that needs to be said about my Dolphins. I have zero confidence in our front office right now. I think we have a good coach but worry about the leadership above him. I’d rather take a chance on Tua being healthy at #5 and adding 2 more first round picks to go with him than dumping our future in Cincinnati’s lap for Burrow. You nailed it though, draft Tua, let him sit and get healthy for another year and keep playing Fitz or Rosen. JMO
GBO!!
 
#18
#18
In 2020, the Dolphins have #5, #18, #26, #37, #56, #69, and possibly a 3rd round compensatory pick.

In 2021, the Dolphins have their #1, #2, and the Texans #1, and #2.

So let's say they offer the Bengals #5 (Tua), #18 (Higgins? AKA, the next AJ Green), #56, and then the Texans two picks next year. Dolphins would still have a pick in each of the first 3 rounds the next two seasons. Who says no?
 
#19
#19
And here's another thought...what if you are Cincinnati and you can make the trade with the Dolphins and end up with Chase Young and Tua (and no extra picks left over)?
 
Last edited:
#20
#20
I would say that Miami is/was desperate and wasted a bunch of draft picks while Cincinnati screws up and drafts a bunch of guys who will wind up being terrible NFL players. Lose-lose.
 
#22
#22
CagleMtnVol said:
Isn't Burrow from the greater Cincinnati area? The merchandis revenue alone would make it almost impossible not to draft him.

It would immediately increase ticket sales as well.
Click to expand...

Randomly, Burrow is a Saints fan. If he had succeeded at tOSU, I think it would be a big deal staying in Ohio, but I don't think it's moving the meter for anyone. I don't think Trevor Lawrence's Tennessee roots would make much of a difference to Titans fans
 
#24
#24
superdave1984 said:
Given their history, I have zero confidence either team would do well with a trade. They would each find a way to dork it up.
Click to expand...

I would say Bengals have been OK with personnel decisions in recent history. They haven't had much playoff success but they were .500+ for 10 of 15 years, then AJ Green turned to glass and the franchise sunk without a game-changer.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top