DiderotsGhost
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There's no game this season that exposed "what we got" more than the Charlotte game. I don't necessarily mean that in a bad way; just a "this is reality" way. There were some positives, but it also gave us a raw glimpse that Pruitt inherited a bigger rebuild job than we might have expected.
Playcalling, Innovation, and Line of Scrimmage
700+ Plays. On average, most teams have in the range 60 - 80 plays on offense in a game. All teams have 12 regular season games. That's somewhere in the realm 700 - 900 plays per season.
You can't out-innovate every game. No Offensive Coordinator no matter how brilliant can come up with 700+ innovative plays every season. The great ones can come up with quite a few, but at some point, your offense has to be able to go out and execute some ordinary plays.
Tyson Helton. I bring all this up, because the reality is that OCs are going to save their best material for the most important games. We saw what Tyson Helton could do versus South Carolina and he was phenomenal in out-scheming the SC defense in spite of a horrendous O-line. We also saw Helton's best against Auburn. I'm 100% sold on Helton as our OC.
Vanilla. That said, Helton can't "out-innovate" every team this year. This game was more "vanilla". And the vanilla games showcase what our offense looks like without brilliant play-calling. This is our offense based on "pure execution." And it's bad.
This O-line may be the worst ever. I never thought I'd see a Tennessee O-line worse than 2014. This one is right there. This is no disrespect to the guys playing. We have people out of position. People playing before they are ready. And we have no depth. It's not a knock on guys giving their all; more of a realization that we don't have enough of them.
The D is Thin. Watching this game gave me a better sense of why our D struggled versus South Carolina. I'm more convinced it's depth now. We have some great players out there. Tuttle is very good. Kyle Phillips is one of the most improved players on the D-line. Bituli is a beast. DK Jr is one of the most instinctive LBs in CFB. We have very little behind these guys. There was a key moment in the 3rd Quarter where the camera operator honed in on Shy Tuttle as he made his way to the sideline. He looked completely exhausted. Our D sucked last week not because these players are bad, but because there aren't enough bodies behind them to take their place and give them some rest. So we have a situation where we are playing exhausted starters too much, because our "exhausted starters" are still better than the back-ups.
Tough situation. This is a very difficult situation for an OC and a DC. The OC is hamstrung by an O-line that can't run-block and can only somewhat pass-block. And our DC is hamstrung by lack of depth and having to play Freshmen in the secondary.
47 plays. One thing I want to point out is that our coaches are smart. 14 points does not seem like a lot, but you should note we only ran 47 plays. That's extremely low. Our coaches understand our situation and they are trying to shorten the game as much as possible. It worked. It gave our defense a chance to rest. Our offense sucked, but the coaches also didn't want to have to pull out their best material to beat a Conference USA opponent!
What We Have to Build On at Line of Scrimmage
Nathan Niehaus. Niehaus has been one of my favorite O-linemen all the way back to when we recruited him. I think the coaches are finally starting to realize that he may be one of the best we have, as he's slowly worked his way from Trey Smith's rarely used backup to one of the key starters, even replacing Drew Richmond at Right Tackle. But that said, he needs to add another 10 - 15 pounds still. Ideally, he would've been a backup this season and a starter next season, but we're not in an ideal situation. If Niehaus continues to work in the weight room, I think he'll be solid next year.
Ryan Johnson. I've liked what I've seen of Johnson as the season has progressed, but like Niehaus, probably needs more bulk. A good offseason and I think he can be there as well.
Jerome Carvin. Carvin is a true Freshman and it's rare that a true Freshman should be playing at OL in the SEC. I think Carvin will be good, but in an ideal scenario, he probably isn't even playing till he's a RS-Sophomore. As with Niehaus and Johnson, a good offseason, and he can be a solid part of the foundation.
Why is the O-line so bad? What we're really seeing is a combination of young guys who probably needed another year or two to be ready, a lack of S&C emphasis under Butch Jones, a lack of depth, all mixed in with some bad luck (e.g. Trey Smith, Kennedy).
Recruits. If we land Darnell Wright (5-star), we will have arguably the best O-line class in America coming in. That would give us Wright alongside another highly coveted 5-star Wanya Morris, blue-chip Jackson Lampley, Melvin McBride and Chris Akporoghene. I should note that both Wright and Morris would be among our top 10 recruits from the last 2 decades according to 247.
2019 + 2020. Unfortunately, I don't think we suddenly go from awful to great next season. And I thought we'd see more progress this season thus far, but I also was hoping that we didn't lose our 2 most key starters for the season. I think we'll improve next season, but we'll still have a lot of true Freshmen in the 2-deep. Sucks to admit it, but we're probably looking at 2020 as the true test for how this O-line has progressed, but maybe Wright and Morris can work miracles as Freshmen.
The D-Line Concerns Me More. Our D-line depth is bad and we saw it versus South Carolina. We lose Tuttle, A. Johnson, K. Phillips, and Paul Bain next season. Unfortunately, we're probably looking at 2020 at the earliest to see how the D-line has progressed as well.
The Offense vs Charlotte
Skill Players vs O-Line. We have the weirdest dichotomy in college football. Our skill players are good enough to compete for the SEC East or at least make a good bowl game. Our O-line is probably the worst in the SEC. You give us Mizzou's O-line and we still get blown out by Bama (defense needs work) and probably lose to Georgia (but it might've been close), but we might beat Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina.
JG. 16 for 21 for 172 yards. After having somewhat of an off game versus South Carolina, I thought JG played great against Charlotte. The stats aren't eye-dropping, but JG was efficient and made several precision-point passes after struggling with some overthrows against SC.
The run game or lack thereof. Like I said, this is what our run game looks like with a vanilla gameplan. Chandler and Jordan are very good RBs, but they are getting absolutely no help from the O-line.
Josh Palmer. Had a great game. Right now, he's the most underrated WR in the SEC.
Dominick Wood-Anderson. Also had a great game. 3 grabs for 53 yards.
No more slow-developing plays. I thought the "slow-developing plays" (the Flea-Flicker and the Play Action) were our worst. It's clear our O-line can't block long enough for those plays to work. We got very lucky on the Flea-Flicker that the DB fell down and Palmer had an eon to catch that ball.
7 Points. Pretty pathetic overall output on offense, but not surprising given our inability to run block.
The Defense
Phenomenal Effort. Sure, it's only Charlotte, but our defense played a great game. The entire starting D-line has an "A" game. Much improved over South Carolina. I wish these guys had another year of eligibility, as I feel like we could be much improved next season on D if they did.
Emmett Gooden. That said, Gooden still has 1 more year left and we bring him back next year. He played well vs Charlotte.
John Mincey. Nice to see him get a big sack as well. Don't think the announcers called his name and I admit I had to look up on the UT roster who was number 59. This is only the 2nd game this season he recorded a tackle, so I assume the coaches are trying to Redshirt him with the 4-game rule but could be wrong.
We also got lucky. Not to take anything away from the D, but we also had some pretty good luck in that Charlotte's offense looked pretty inept and had several costly penalties. Also, the weird offsides call that wasn't offside.
Overall
No Year 2 Surge. We're not going to see a huge surge into SEC contention in Year 2 like Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. We are too thin on OL and DL for that to happen and Pruitt did not inherit the rosters that Saban and Smart did. 7 to 8 wins with a top 10 recruiting class would be a more reasonable goal.
Bowl game this year will be tough. Winning 2 out of 3 with this patchwork O-line and a thin D is going to be difficult. Kentucky is going to run all over us. But it's not impossible.
Kentucky. I've felt like Kentucky has been overrated all season. They are one-dimensional. But unfortunately, their "1 dimension" is the one we happen to struggle with (run defense). Be interesting to see what Pruitt comes up with. I think I'd take my chances in the passing game and hope our corners could play 1 on 1. Stopping that UK run game has to be key.
Mizzou. I'm pretty convinced that Dooley has been a huge step down from Heupel at OC, but this Mizzou team is still populated with experienced Seniors. Glad it's in Knoxville as I think we'd have a difficult time knocking them off on the road. Still, won't be an easy game. They can also run the ball at us and punish the thin D. Hopefully, Dools comes up with a gameplan that's not very good.
Vandy. Certainly a winnable game. On the road, but ya know ... more like a neutral-site game.
That's all I have. I'm going to stay naively optimistic about beating Kentucky next week in Knoxville.
GBO!
Playcalling, Innovation, and Line of Scrimmage
700+ Plays. On average, most teams have in the range 60 - 80 plays on offense in a game. All teams have 12 regular season games. That's somewhere in the realm 700 - 900 plays per season.
You can't out-innovate every game. No Offensive Coordinator no matter how brilliant can come up with 700+ innovative plays every season. The great ones can come up with quite a few, but at some point, your offense has to be able to go out and execute some ordinary plays.
Tyson Helton. I bring all this up, because the reality is that OCs are going to save their best material for the most important games. We saw what Tyson Helton could do versus South Carolina and he was phenomenal in out-scheming the SC defense in spite of a horrendous O-line. We also saw Helton's best against Auburn. I'm 100% sold on Helton as our OC.
Vanilla. That said, Helton can't "out-innovate" every team this year. This game was more "vanilla". And the vanilla games showcase what our offense looks like without brilliant play-calling. This is our offense based on "pure execution." And it's bad.
This O-line may be the worst ever. I never thought I'd see a Tennessee O-line worse than 2014. This one is right there. This is no disrespect to the guys playing. We have people out of position. People playing before they are ready. And we have no depth. It's not a knock on guys giving their all; more of a realization that we don't have enough of them.
The D is Thin. Watching this game gave me a better sense of why our D struggled versus South Carolina. I'm more convinced it's depth now. We have some great players out there. Tuttle is very good. Kyle Phillips is one of the most improved players on the D-line. Bituli is a beast. DK Jr is one of the most instinctive LBs in CFB. We have very little behind these guys. There was a key moment in the 3rd Quarter where the camera operator honed in on Shy Tuttle as he made his way to the sideline. He looked completely exhausted. Our D sucked last week not because these players are bad, but because there aren't enough bodies behind them to take their place and give them some rest. So we have a situation where we are playing exhausted starters too much, because our "exhausted starters" are still better than the back-ups.
Tough situation. This is a very difficult situation for an OC and a DC. The OC is hamstrung by an O-line that can't run-block and can only somewhat pass-block. And our DC is hamstrung by lack of depth and having to play Freshmen in the secondary.
47 plays. One thing I want to point out is that our coaches are smart. 14 points does not seem like a lot, but you should note we only ran 47 plays. That's extremely low. Our coaches understand our situation and they are trying to shorten the game as much as possible. It worked. It gave our defense a chance to rest. Our offense sucked, but the coaches also didn't want to have to pull out their best material to beat a Conference USA opponent!
What We Have to Build On at Line of Scrimmage
Nathan Niehaus. Niehaus has been one of my favorite O-linemen all the way back to when we recruited him. I think the coaches are finally starting to realize that he may be one of the best we have, as he's slowly worked his way from Trey Smith's rarely used backup to one of the key starters, even replacing Drew Richmond at Right Tackle. But that said, he needs to add another 10 - 15 pounds still. Ideally, he would've been a backup this season and a starter next season, but we're not in an ideal situation. If Niehaus continues to work in the weight room, I think he'll be solid next year.
Ryan Johnson. I've liked what I've seen of Johnson as the season has progressed, but like Niehaus, probably needs more bulk. A good offseason and I think he can be there as well.
Jerome Carvin. Carvin is a true Freshman and it's rare that a true Freshman should be playing at OL in the SEC. I think Carvin will be good, but in an ideal scenario, he probably isn't even playing till he's a RS-Sophomore. As with Niehaus and Johnson, a good offseason, and he can be a solid part of the foundation.
Why is the O-line so bad? What we're really seeing is a combination of young guys who probably needed another year or two to be ready, a lack of S&C emphasis under Butch Jones, a lack of depth, all mixed in with some bad luck (e.g. Trey Smith, Kennedy).
Recruits. If we land Darnell Wright (5-star), we will have arguably the best O-line class in America coming in. That would give us Wright alongside another highly coveted 5-star Wanya Morris, blue-chip Jackson Lampley, Melvin McBride and Chris Akporoghene. I should note that both Wright and Morris would be among our top 10 recruits from the last 2 decades according to 247.
2019 + 2020. Unfortunately, I don't think we suddenly go from awful to great next season. And I thought we'd see more progress this season thus far, but I also was hoping that we didn't lose our 2 most key starters for the season. I think we'll improve next season, but we'll still have a lot of true Freshmen in the 2-deep. Sucks to admit it, but we're probably looking at 2020 as the true test for how this O-line has progressed, but maybe Wright and Morris can work miracles as Freshmen.
The D-Line Concerns Me More. Our D-line depth is bad and we saw it versus South Carolina. We lose Tuttle, A. Johnson, K. Phillips, and Paul Bain next season. Unfortunately, we're probably looking at 2020 at the earliest to see how the D-line has progressed as well.
The Offense vs Charlotte
Skill Players vs O-Line. We have the weirdest dichotomy in college football. Our skill players are good enough to compete for the SEC East or at least make a good bowl game. Our O-line is probably the worst in the SEC. You give us Mizzou's O-line and we still get blown out by Bama (defense needs work) and probably lose to Georgia (but it might've been close), but we might beat Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina.
JG. 16 for 21 for 172 yards. After having somewhat of an off game versus South Carolina, I thought JG played great against Charlotte. The stats aren't eye-dropping, but JG was efficient and made several precision-point passes after struggling with some overthrows against SC.
The run game or lack thereof. Like I said, this is what our run game looks like with a vanilla gameplan. Chandler and Jordan are very good RBs, but they are getting absolutely no help from the O-line.
Josh Palmer. Had a great game. Right now, he's the most underrated WR in the SEC.
Dominick Wood-Anderson. Also had a great game. 3 grabs for 53 yards.
No more slow-developing plays. I thought the "slow-developing plays" (the Flea-Flicker and the Play Action) were our worst. It's clear our O-line can't block long enough for those plays to work. We got very lucky on the Flea-Flicker that the DB fell down and Palmer had an eon to catch that ball.
7 Points. Pretty pathetic overall output on offense, but not surprising given our inability to run block.
The Defense
Phenomenal Effort. Sure, it's only Charlotte, but our defense played a great game. The entire starting D-line has an "A" game. Much improved over South Carolina. I wish these guys had another year of eligibility, as I feel like we could be much improved next season on D if they did.
Emmett Gooden. That said, Gooden still has 1 more year left and we bring him back next year. He played well vs Charlotte.
John Mincey. Nice to see him get a big sack as well. Don't think the announcers called his name and I admit I had to look up on the UT roster who was number 59. This is only the 2nd game this season he recorded a tackle, so I assume the coaches are trying to Redshirt him with the 4-game rule but could be wrong.
We also got lucky. Not to take anything away from the D, but we also had some pretty good luck in that Charlotte's offense looked pretty inept and had several costly penalties. Also, the weird offsides call that wasn't offside.
Overall
No Year 2 Surge. We're not going to see a huge surge into SEC contention in Year 2 like Nick Saban or Kirby Smart. We are too thin on OL and DL for that to happen and Pruitt did not inherit the rosters that Saban and Smart did. 7 to 8 wins with a top 10 recruiting class would be a more reasonable goal.
Bowl game this year will be tough. Winning 2 out of 3 with this patchwork O-line and a thin D is going to be difficult. Kentucky is going to run all over us. But it's not impossible.
Kentucky. I've felt like Kentucky has been overrated all season. They are one-dimensional. But unfortunately, their "1 dimension" is the one we happen to struggle with (run defense). Be interesting to see what Pruitt comes up with. I think I'd take my chances in the passing game and hope our corners could play 1 on 1. Stopping that UK run game has to be key.
Mizzou. I'm pretty convinced that Dooley has been a huge step down from Heupel at OC, but this Mizzou team is still populated with experienced Seniors. Glad it's in Knoxville as I think we'd have a difficult time knocking them off on the road. Still, won't be an easy game. They can also run the ball at us and punish the thin D. Hopefully, Dools comes up with a gameplan that's not very good.
Vandy. Certainly a winnable game. On the road, but ya know ... more like a neutral-site game.
That's all I have. I'm going to stay naively optimistic about beating Kentucky next week in Knoxville.
GBO!
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