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Defensive Stop Rate
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The fact that you look at the numbers and see it as the offense carrying the defense shows you don't understand what the numbers are saying.
What the numbers actually say is that the offense is really good because running that many plays and still being in the top 5 OPD means the offense is really consistent. You would expect the more possessions a team has the less efficient it would be because of the law of averages. People get tired and make mistakes. Our DPD being at 37 is actually impressive given how many possessions our team has per game. Just looking at numbers is not enough you have to look into the numbers and what they mean together.
Our OPD is ranked 7 Defense is ranked 37 and NPD is 5th. IF, as you say, our Offense was carrying the defense Our NPD would be Lower than our OPD not higher. A good comparison is Washington, ranked 2 in OPD and 59th DPD but they are only 9th overall. Because their defense is so comparatively bad it drags them down. Some teams with comparative DPD to UT last year are Missouri, Kentucky (both were considered good defenses till they played us), and Florida State. Don't let the rankings alone fool you the difference between 37 and 58 is like 0.24 the real stat here is NPD where you see the real separation. The difference between the top 3 and UT/Bama is pretty big and the GAP between UT/BAMA and everyone below is also pretty big. The only teams ahead of us are OSU Michigan and Georgia, all playoff teams, and Bama, they had an off year but that's a pro factory.
Logic says the chances of our defense being better this year are really good assuming we are not decimated by injuries and even then we have a lot more depth/talent on defense this year. I do not think it is possible for us to ever have a statistically great defense unless the offense scheme changes or implodes. Even if we had a historically good/talented defense they give up points at some point. But we only really gave up a lot of points 3 times.. Only 3 times did a team score more than 27 points on us. A good number of those points were put up against out the Second team in blowouts. Of our 13 games only 5 games were ever in question at any point. We blew most teams out in the first half so common sense says you play more conservative/vanilla defense/2nd and third team at that point. Funny story the teams ranked ahead of us had a lot of games that went well into the 3rd quarter which makes a difference. We blew teams out in the first half the other guys blew guys out in the second half., It changes the way you call plays.
What the numbers actually say is that the offense is really good because running that many plays and still being in the top 5 OPD means the offense is really consistent. You would expect the more possessions a team has the less efficient it would be because of the law of averages. People get tired and make mistakes. Our DPD being at 37 is actually impressive given how many possessions our team has per game. Just looking at numbers is not enough you have to look into the numbers and what they mean together.
Our OPD is ranked 7 Defense is ranked 37 and NPD is 5th. IF, as you say, our Offense was carrying the defense Our NPD would be Lower than our OPD not higher. A good comparison is Washington, ranked 2 in OPD and 59th DPD but they are only 9th overall. Because their defense is so comparatively bad it drags them down. Some teams with comparative DPD to UT last year are Missouri, Kentucky (both were considered good defenses till they played us), and Florida State. Don't let the rankings alone fool you the difference between 37 and 58 is like 0.24 the real stat here is NPD where you see the real separation. The difference between the top 3 and UT/Bama is pretty big and the GAP between UT/BAMA and everyone below is also pretty big. The only teams ahead of us are OSU Michigan and Georgia, all playoff teams, and Bama, they had an off year but that's a pro factory.
Logic says the chances of our defense being better this year are really good assuming we are not decimated by injuries and even then we have a lot more depth/talent on defense this year. I do not think it is possible for us to ever have a statistically great defense unless the offense scheme changes or implodes. Even if we had a historically good/talented defense they give up points at some point. But we only really gave up a lot of points 3 times.. Only 3 times did a team score more than 27 points on us. A good number of those points were put up against out the Second team in blowouts. Of our 13 games only 5 games were ever in question at any point. We blew most teams out in the first half so common sense says you play more conservative/vanilla defense/2nd and third team at that point. Funny story the teams ranked ahead of us had a lot of games that went well into the 3rd quarter which makes a difference. We blew teams out in the first half the other guys blew guys out in the second half., It changes the way you call plays.
Can we all agree that this number says this and that number says that, but we went from 3-7 to 7-6 to 11-2? Maybe it's because hooker was a lucky break, maybe huepel is a qb savant, maybe we got super lucky and his ucf career will play out the same here and we're gonna repeat the same crapshow we've seen for the last 20 years. The fact anyone here is arguing about the sc game from a stats standpoint (which was a flat out absolute embarrassment) as opposed to any other game we played shows that we're arguing about the trees and not seeing the forest. We had an incredible season. I'm 32 years old and it was the best one I've seen since I was 7. Sometimes crapping the bed is part of the growing process for a coach and a team.
I mean, good lord yall, banks may suck or he may be purely mediocre, and neither one of those definitions may matter at all. You're arguing about what it's gonna take to win a national championship, and the fact you can take up 4 pages worth of internet commentary about it means we must be pretty dang good compared to two years ago and clearly headed in the right direction.
I mean, good lord yall, banks may suck or he may be purely mediocre, and neither one of those definitions may matter at all. You're arguing about what it's gonna take to win a national championship, and the fact you can take up 4 pages worth of internet commentary about it means we must be pretty dang good compared to two years ago and clearly headed in the right direction.
oh now you want to play the averages game? I thought you were dismissing averages because you wanted our defense to be elite the whole season with a bunch of left overs.
There is probably as much talent on their offense as there was on our defense. How many of our Defense is starting on south Carolina's team? Or how many of our defenders would south Carolina trade their offensive players for? That will tell you how talented our D was.
we held 9 teams below their season average. and I am not counting Missouri, as their average was 24.1, we held them to 24.
Overall we gave up 22 fewer points than our opponents averaged. So even with subpar talent we did better than the average of the SEC. We are clearly improving.
You haven't seen ANYTHING that says Banks can coach? Clear improvement year over year. The ability to change the game plan at half, figuring out how to Bend-don't-break. and remember that was his stated mantra coming in. He knows yards don't matter. points do. We went from 31.5ppg in 2021, to 22.7ppg in 2022.
and all you have are "convenient stats". you pick the worst games, you pick the worst stats, yards, and you reject what actually wins and loses games, points.
There is probably as much talent on their offense as there was on our defense. How many of our Defense is starting on south Carolina's team? Or how many of our defenders would south Carolina trade their offensive players for? That will tell you how talented our D was.
we held 9 teams below their season average. and I am not counting Missouri, as their average was 24.1, we held them to 24.
Overall we gave up 22 fewer points than our opponents averaged. So even with subpar talent we did better than the average of the SEC. We are clearly improving.
You haven't seen ANYTHING that says Banks can coach? Clear improvement year over year. The ability to change the game plan at half, figuring out how to Bend-don't-break. and remember that was his stated mantra coming in. He knows yards don't matter. points do. We went from 31.5ppg in 2021, to 22.7ppg in 2022.
and all you have are "convenient stats". you pick the worst games, you pick the worst stats, yards, and you reject what actually wins and loses games, points.
Seriously? This conversation is quickly breaking down into stuff like this.
Averages have a place. Averages NEVER tell the whole story... because they're "averages" of different things. If a salesman "averages" 100% of his goal over a period of time but you find that he collapses completely at times as well... you don't ignore the latter. In fact, the latter is likely a reason to fire him.
I can maybe agree with that first statement. So why did an O with equal talent to a D score 63 points? Answer that question and you begin to understand why I'm not buying Banks YET.
The latter is ridiculous. I don't know and neither do you.
Why not? That would be fair or you could have said that the D held 10 opponents to their season average or below. Completely fair. Good reason to hope that Banks can get the job done.
But those games aren't the problem. Nor is a game like Bama a big concern to me. It is those games that UT had enough talent to compete well against an opposing O and got completely trucked. That's where my doubts come from.
I don't want Banks to fail. I'm not writing him off or saying he cannot win my confidence for whatever that's worth. I'm simply saying that he's done things that leave me with significant doubts about his ability. His inconsistencies are troubling.
The O has carried the D for two years. But to your point, I would be comfortable with 23 ppg like they had last fall. Allowing 405 ypg isn't so great... and being mid-pack in yds/play isn't flipping anyone's skirt up. But I would take all of those numbers if the game results were plus or minus 10-15%. But the results are literally all over the place. Some good, some bad... but 9 of their 13 games saw opponents with total O greater than 445 or less than 365. That's why looking at the average alone doesn't work.
Did I actually say that?
Again, I agree that points matter. I believe that yardage matters. But the averages don't tell the story.
I don't find those stats convenient at all. I find them highly inconvenient... concerning. If Banks' D allowed 28 ppg like it did in '21 but didn't allow the 40+ point collapses then I'd be pretty happy. UT would have an opportunity to win every game. It is precisely the collapses that screw up great seasons. Right? What prevented UT from making a strong case to be in the CFP instead of either TCU or OSU? It wasn't UT's defensive averages across the season. It was a defensive collapse against a not very great team.
Do I think it is possible for UT to improve? Yes. Do I think it is possible that Banks can lead the D to success? Yes. But I do not see that as PROVEN. I see that as something still to be determined.
Averages have a place. Averages NEVER tell the whole story... because they're "averages" of different things. If a salesman "averages" 100% of his goal over a period of time but you find that he collapses completely at times as well... you don't ignore the latter. In fact, the latter is likely a reason to fire him.
I can maybe agree with that first statement. So why did an O with equal talent to a D score 63 points? Answer that question and you begin to understand why I'm not buying Banks YET.
The latter is ridiculous. I don't know and neither do you.
Why not? That would be fair or you could have said that the D held 10 opponents to their season average or below. Completely fair. Good reason to hope that Banks can get the job done.
But those games aren't the problem. Nor is a game like Bama a big concern to me. It is those games that UT had enough talent to compete well against an opposing O and got completely trucked. That's where my doubts come from.
I don't want Banks to fail. I'm not writing him off or saying he cannot win my confidence for whatever that's worth. I'm simply saying that he's done things that leave me with significant doubts about his ability. His inconsistencies are troubling.
The O has carried the D for two years. But to your point, I would be comfortable with 23 ppg like they had last fall. Allowing 405 ypg isn't so great... and being mid-pack in yds/play isn't flipping anyone's skirt up. But I would take all of those numbers if the game results were plus or minus 10-15%. But the results are literally all over the place. Some good, some bad... but 9 of their 13 games saw opponents with total O greater than 445 or less than 365. That's why looking at the average alone doesn't work.
Did I actually say that?
Again, I agree that points matter. I believe that yardage matters. But the averages don't tell the story.
I don't find those stats convenient at all. I find them highly inconvenient... concerning. If Banks' D allowed 28 ppg like it did in '21 but didn't allow the 40+ point collapses then I'd be pretty happy. UT would have an opportunity to win every game. It is precisely the collapses that screw up great seasons. Right? What prevented UT from making a strong case to be in the CFP instead of either TCU or OSU? It wasn't UT's defensive averages across the season. It was a defensive collapse against a not very great team.
Do I think it is possible for UT to improve? Yes. Do I think it is possible that Banks can lead the D to success? Yes. But I do not see that as PROVEN. I see that as something still to be determined.
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Here you go @sjt18
unless you can see into the future this says pretty clearly you haven't seen Banks as the coach we need.
and you are right , we don't know how things will turn out, Banks could do terrible next year and get fired. heck the D could not improve one bit and that would be grounds for firing too. but you are taking way too negative of a stance towards him imo at this time.
unless you can see into the future this says pretty clearly you haven't seen Banks as the coach we need.
and you are right , we don't know how things will turn out, Banks could do terrible next year and get fired. heck the D could not improve one bit and that would be grounds for firing too. but you are taking way too negative of a stance towards him imo at this time.
Dude. Can you not read or are you just that determined to read something into that comment?
Follow slowly. I- meaning me. Have not seen- have not witnessed or experienced. Anything- the things and sum of things necessary. YET- so far. To make- compel/require. me believe- personal acceptance of an unseen/unproven thing.
Intermingled good games aren't enough. The do not cancel out the bad games. Averages aren't enough. They allow the exceptions to cost you games if the variance is as great as it is with Banks.
I'm playing my hand in this game where many of your are much too willing IMO to place faith in him. Like I said before, he seems like a likeable guy. I would like to see him succeed. But I'm at the same place I was with Jones for his whole tenure... wanting to see him show he was the guy but just not seeing that level of talent as a coach. I am not writing Banks off. But my hope is for a championship caliber DC that matches what I believe to be a championship caliber offensive minded HC.
Maybe that's the difference. I'm not looking for "good enough" or middling. I'm looking for a DC that can help UT win championships- beat Bama, UGA, and all comers. Are you really convinced Banks has shown anything pointing toward that level of coaching talent? I'm concerned he's the weak link on this staff.
Follow slowly. I- meaning me. Have not seen- have not witnessed or experienced. Anything- the things and sum of things necessary. YET- so far. To make- compel/require. me believe- personal acceptance of an unseen/unproven thing.
Intermingled good games aren't enough. The do not cancel out the bad games. Averages aren't enough. They allow the exceptions to cost you games if the variance is as great as it is with Banks.
I'm playing my hand in this game where many of your are much too willing IMO to place faith in him. Like I said before, he seems like a likeable guy. I would like to see him succeed. But I'm at the same place I was with Jones for his whole tenure... wanting to see him show he was the guy but just not seeing that level of talent as a coach. I am not writing Banks off. But my hope is for a championship caliber DC that matches what I believe to be a championship caliber offensive minded HC.
Maybe that's the difference. I'm not looking for "good enough" or middling. I'm looking for a DC that can help UT win championships- beat Bama, UGA, and all comers. Are you really convinced Banks has shown anything pointing toward that level of coaching talent? I'm concerned he's the weak link on this staff.
uhhhh, yeah. I have some very clear evidence of it in fact. 52 49. His D held them to fewer points than we scored thats all that matters.
frankly I don't care if we beat them by 1 point off a missed/blocked field goal, or win by 100 holding them to negative 100 yards. I don't remember seeing any UT fans quibbling over Stoerner's fumble like you do over our win against Bama by a FG.
we beat SC in 2021 with Banks D, its not like he is snake bit against them. Georgia was held to 27, and i believe there was a defensive td in there, which was their third lowest total. so its not like he just falls apart constantly or against the same team. banks isn't perfect, but neither is any part of this team, so yeah an off game doesn't have me running to the next coach search or claiming prescience oh how a coach will do.
I think Heupel knows who the weak link is. and right now it isn't Banks, but it is someone on that side of the field. Raises, contract extensions revealed for Tennessee’s football coaching staff
frankly I don't care if we beat them by 1 point off a missed/blocked field goal, or win by 100 holding them to negative 100 yards. I don't remember seeing any UT fans quibbling over Stoerner's fumble like you do over our win against Bama by a FG.
we beat SC in 2021 with Banks D, its not like he is snake bit against them. Georgia was held to 27, and i believe there was a defensive td in there, which was their third lowest total. so its not like he just falls apart constantly or against the same team. banks isn't perfect, but neither is any part of this team, so yeah an off game doesn't have me running to the next coach search or claiming prescience oh how a coach will do.
I think Heupel knows who the weak link is. and right now it isn't Banks, but it is someone on that side of the field. Raises, contract extensions revealed for Tennessee’s football coaching staff
You're trying to be obtuse..., aren't you?
UT won because UT's O was better than either of Bama's units. Giving up 49 points and essentially not being able to even slow Bama down for most of the game is not "evidence" that your DC is doing a great job.
That doesn't help your case. USCe weren't better and may have been worse in '22 than '21.
It would be easier to explain if they did... or if it were talent related. But it hasn't always or maybe even usually been the teams with big talent advantages. The D wasn't great vs LSU but they didn't suck. LSU is much, much more talented than USCe. UK and USCe were fairly close. The results weren't.
The question isn't whether they're perfect or not. The question is if they coach at a championship level or not. You cannot say the O hasn't been championship caliber. They score.
A "good", not great, just good D holds opponents under 25 ppg. That's close to the over/under. If UT scores 30 points then a "good" D should give them a win almost all of the time. UT scored less than 30 once this past year and 4 times in '21. The D has allowed over 25 in all 8 losses.
Martinez coaches a position. He wasn't given an extension. But that says nothing about Banks. Banks' contract isn't on the same schedule as the others.
If Martinez were truly the extent of the problem and Heupel knew it... they could have easily fired him at any time this past year and promoted someone to finish the season. Couldn't have gotten a lot worse at times, right?
UT won because UT's O was better than either of Bama's units. Giving up 49 points and essentially not being able to even slow Bama down for most of the game is not "evidence" that your DC is doing a great job.
That doesn't help your case. USCe weren't better and may have been worse in '22 than '21.
It would be easier to explain if they did... or if it were talent related. But it hasn't always or maybe even usually been the teams with big talent advantages. The D wasn't great vs LSU but they didn't suck. LSU is much, much more talented than USCe. UK and USCe were fairly close. The results weren't.
The question isn't whether they're perfect or not. The question is if they coach at a championship level or not. You cannot say the O hasn't been championship caliber. They score.
A "good", not great, just good D holds opponents under 25 ppg. That's close to the over/under. If UT scores 30 points then a "good" D should give them a win almost all of the time. UT scored less than 30 once this past year and 4 times in '21. The D has allowed over 25 in all 8 losses.
Martinez coaches a position. He wasn't given an extension. But that says nothing about Banks. Banks' contract isn't on the same schedule as the others.
If Martinez were truly the extent of the problem and Heupel knew it... they could have easily fired him at any time this past year and promoted someone to finish the season. Couldn't have gotten a lot worse at times, right?
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After reading some of these comments, I realized that there are a few who have NO idea what's going on in college football today. So their criticism is based on a sample size of 1......Tennessee Football.
It's getting harder and harder to stop offenses from scoring. Gone are the days of a defense holding teams to 7 or 14 points week after week. The rules of football favor the offense because scoring is exciting and entertaining.
The past several years, the highest ranked defenses were able to "stop" teams around 84% of their drives. In 2022, the team ranked #1 was only able to stop opposing teams 78% of the time and we were not far behind at 70%. This is an improvement from 60% in 2021. In 2022, we we ranked higher than over 100 other defenses in fbs football and to say that's not an improvement or that our defense wasn't good in 2022 is just plain "football ignorant".
But I do understand that there are some who don't watch or keep up statistically with other teams, so your judgement is based on your limited knowledge and your eye test which can be biased and just plain wrong.
The defense has improved dramatically and I'm sorry that this hurts some feelings.
GBO 🍊
It's getting harder and harder to stop offenses from scoring. Gone are the days of a defense holding teams to 7 or 14 points week after week. The rules of football favor the offense because scoring is exciting and entertaining.
The past several years, the highest ranked defenses were able to "stop" teams around 84% of their drives. In 2022, the team ranked #1 was only able to stop opposing teams 78% of the time and we were not far behind at 70%. This is an improvement from 60% in 2021. In 2022, we we ranked higher than over 100 other defenses in fbs football and to say that's not an improvement or that our defense wasn't good in 2022 is just plain "football ignorant".
But I do understand that there are some who don't watch or keep up statistically with other teams, so your judgement is based on your limited knowledge and your eye test which can be biased and just plain wrong.
The defense has improved dramatically and I'm sorry that this hurts some feelings.
GBO 🍊
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