UTRavens
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Obviously there is quite a bit of debate about Mullen that, at its core, is pretty much about how his level of success at Mississippi State would translate to a traditional P5 power with more resources at its disposal. There are plenty of good points being made on both sides, so I'll try to add something new to the discussion and find the closest historical examples of this kind of hire.
For this "study", we'll make a few restrictions: hires must have been made in the last 25 years, and head coaches must have been at a lower/mid-level P5 program and then hired by a power program. To find the ones most similar to Mullen, who has a .605 winning percentage, I'll narrow it down to coaches who won 55-65% of their games with their previous program. After about an hour of College Football Referencing, here's what I found:
Mack Brown - Hired by Texas from UNC in 1997
UNC (1988-1997): 69-46-1 (.599)
Texas (1998-2013): 158-48 (.767)
An obvious and massive success of a hire. However, it is worth noting that Brown's UNC performance was deflated by two 1-10 seasons at the start of his tenure, and his win percentage was over 70% during the rest of his stay there.
James Franklin - Hired by Penn State from Vanderbilt in 2014
Vanderbilt (2011-2013): 24-15 (.615)
Penn State (2014-2017): 34-17 (.667)
There are certainly no complaints about the Franklin hire so far, though we'll see if he can take the next step and make a playoff appearance.
John Mackovic - Hired by Texas from Illinois in 1992
Illinois (1988-1991): 30-16-1 (.649)
Texas (1992-1997): 41-28-2 (.592)
Mackovic barely qualifies for this list both in time frame and win percentage, but this is going to be a very small list so we might as well include him. Mackovic had two .500 type seasons, then three top 25 seasons at Texas before a 4-7 season did him in.
Les Miles - Hired by LSU from Oklahoma State in 2005
Oklahoma State (2001-2004): 28-21 (.571)
LSU (2005-2016): 114-34 (.770)
Another massive success. Miles had three winning seasons in four years at Oklahoma State, but only peaked at 9-4 in 2003 and had no top 25 seasons.
Nick Saban - Hired by LSU from Michigan State in 2000
Michigan State (1995-1999): 34-24-1 (.585)
LSU (2000-2004): 48-16 (.750)
Yep, we know what happened here...and what has continued to happen...sigh. His Michigan State tenure is interesting though, as he hovered around .500 for four years before having a breakout 9-2 season in 1999.
Tommy Tuberville - Hired by Auburn from Ole Miss in 1999
Ole Miss (1995-1998): 25-20 (.556)
Auburn (1999-2008): 85-40 (.680)
Largely a success, and in the current era Tuberville's 2004 team would have had a chance to compete for the title. His Ole Miss teams were mostly middling with one 8-4 season in 1997.
Of course, this is not an exact science. Sometimes coaches who just missed had completely different fortunes at their big schools (Tyrone Willingham was .549 at Stanford, so he barely misses this list) and other coaches who were enormously successful at bigger programs sometimes failed anyway (see Rich Rodriguez, though technically not a P5).
But that's a pretty staggering list overall, and it's definitely food for thought. Sometimes there's just only so much that even a brilliant coach can do at a lesser program. Several national championship winning coaches came from good but not great backgrounds at weaker P5 programs, and other successful ones have come from this group as well. What we don't really have among the group listed above is a major failure, and only one (who technically isn't even in the last 25 years) can't be called a definite success. So if you're down on the increasingly strong rumors regarding Mullen's candidacy, this might be something to take comfort in.
For this "study", we'll make a few restrictions: hires must have been made in the last 25 years, and head coaches must have been at a lower/mid-level P5 program and then hired by a power program. To find the ones most similar to Mullen, who has a .605 winning percentage, I'll narrow it down to coaches who won 55-65% of their games with their previous program. After about an hour of College Football Referencing, here's what I found:
Mack Brown - Hired by Texas from UNC in 1997
UNC (1988-1997): 69-46-1 (.599)
Texas (1998-2013): 158-48 (.767)
An obvious and massive success of a hire. However, it is worth noting that Brown's UNC performance was deflated by two 1-10 seasons at the start of his tenure, and his win percentage was over 70% during the rest of his stay there.
James Franklin - Hired by Penn State from Vanderbilt in 2014
Vanderbilt (2011-2013): 24-15 (.615)
Penn State (2014-2017): 34-17 (.667)
There are certainly no complaints about the Franklin hire so far, though we'll see if he can take the next step and make a playoff appearance.
John Mackovic - Hired by Texas from Illinois in 1992
Illinois (1988-1991): 30-16-1 (.649)
Texas (1992-1997): 41-28-2 (.592)
Mackovic barely qualifies for this list both in time frame and win percentage, but this is going to be a very small list so we might as well include him. Mackovic had two .500 type seasons, then three top 25 seasons at Texas before a 4-7 season did him in.
Les Miles - Hired by LSU from Oklahoma State in 2005
Oklahoma State (2001-2004): 28-21 (.571)
LSU (2005-2016): 114-34 (.770)
Another massive success. Miles had three winning seasons in four years at Oklahoma State, but only peaked at 9-4 in 2003 and had no top 25 seasons.
Nick Saban - Hired by LSU from Michigan State in 2000
Michigan State (1995-1999): 34-24-1 (.585)
LSU (2000-2004): 48-16 (.750)
Yep, we know what happened here...and what has continued to happen...sigh. His Michigan State tenure is interesting though, as he hovered around .500 for four years before having a breakout 9-2 season in 1999.
Tommy Tuberville - Hired by Auburn from Ole Miss in 1999
Ole Miss (1995-1998): 25-20 (.556)
Auburn (1999-2008): 85-40 (.680)
Largely a success, and in the current era Tuberville's 2004 team would have had a chance to compete for the title. His Ole Miss teams were mostly middling with one 8-4 season in 1997.
Of course, this is not an exact science. Sometimes coaches who just missed had completely different fortunes at their big schools (Tyrone Willingham was .549 at Stanford, so he barely misses this list) and other coaches who were enormously successful at bigger programs sometimes failed anyway (see Rich Rodriguez, though technically not a P5).
But that's a pretty staggering list overall, and it's definitely food for thought. Sometimes there's just only so much that even a brilliant coach can do at a lesser program. Several national championship winning coaches came from good but not great backgrounds at weaker P5 programs, and other successful ones have come from this group as well. What we don't really have among the group listed above is a major failure, and only one (who technically isn't even in the last 25 years) can't be called a definite success. So if you're down on the increasingly strong rumors regarding Mullen's candidacy, this might be something to take comfort in.
