D4H's 2018 NFL Season Preview

[TDawg]

How player's look always plays a part in my evaluation. Its why I had Mahomes rated as a potential star QB in the 2017 draft eventhough I didn't like his tape that much. He had the look of a guy who would be successful. Its also why I had Brad Kaaya and Josh Dobbs rated higher than him. They also had the look but they were more mature.

James Conner is another guy who had the look. Which is why he was higher than Fournette and Cook on my list. Same reason I was high on JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another player with the look of greatness.

You can try and act like this isn't real but it is. Many people have realized this.

You will never convince those of us who have achieved and had large levels of success that looks is in any way part of it. It's certainly not the case in business as I live and see first hand every day. But if you want to keep that idea up for football, well ...
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, John Elway, Fran Tarkenton, Terry Bradshaw, Big Ben, Carson Wentz, Jim Brown, John Riggins, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis and a whole lot more would like to take a collective middle finger bow at that notion.

 

[hndog609]

Don't worry. I can talk about Kaaya all day. I just don't like my views being misrepresented. I try my best to make sure my views are clearly seen and understood.

With regard to Kaaya, he just needs to get healthy. I liked his tape and loved his intangibles. I'm confident he will be a very good QB in this league.

Don't forget you said the same thing about James Conner. Then he got his chance and has been as great as I said he would be.

Talk about Kaaya all day? I mean, listing all the times he's already been waived would take up some time but...

And you and what you're "confident" about has a pretty sketchy past.

Peyton didn't have a wimpy look like Jared Goff. Peyton had a masculine look that predicated his future success. Jared Goff has the look of a bust. And I'm 100% confident his sophomore year was nothing more than a fluke like we've seen many times with bad QBs before.

The Raiders will be fine without Khalil Mack. They did a great job this year in the draft when it came to defensive lineman. Arden Key has a good chance at being Defensive Rookie of the Year. And interior lineman PJ Hall and Maurice Hurst were great picks as well. I have faith in Jon Gruden fixing the offense. I believe Derek Carr will have a bounce back season. The Raiders will run away with the AFC West. They are one of the teams I'm most confident will win their division in 2018.

This one is after the Packers beat the Bears...and then went on to lose 4 games since.

I'm actually even more confident after this result. This is the type of game that can give a team confidence that they can't be beat regardless of how dire it looks early on.

Oh and you must be thinking of someone else regarding Conner. I've actually had very little to say on him and admit to never really knowing much about him until fairly recently. In fact once I did look into his history I think if it weren't for his knee injury (I think a lot, more likely most, people didn't know he tore his MCL in the opening game of his Jr season prior to the lymphoma diagnosis) and cancer issues he'd have likely been seen as big time player. He had stuff like this going on.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/doak-walker-rankings-gurley-vs-conner/

Hell, if he'd just switched the order around and had his issues early and finished his Jr year with his So performance he'd almost certainly have been a 1st rounder.

 

[superdave1984]

I still do not understand how he thinks Dobbs is a good looking guy. I like Dobbs. I think he's a good guy and dang smart. But he looks like an alien.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

You will never convince those of us who have achieved and had large levels of success that looks is in any way part of it. It's certainly not the case in business as I live and see first hand every day. But if you want to keep that idea up for football, well ...
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, John Elway, Fran Tarkenton, Terry Bradshaw, Big Ben, Carson Wentz, Jim Brown, John Riggins, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis and a whole lot more would like to take a collective middle finger bow at that notion.

I'm not taking away from these players work ethic. I'm not saying they've had things handed to them like pretty women get things handed to them cause people find them attractive. I'm just saying there is a correlation between how good you look and how successful you are. Its possible there is a genetic component to this. But there is no denying the clear correlation between looks and success in sports.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Oh and you must be thinking of someone else regarding Conner. I've actually had very little to say on him and admit to never really knowing much about him until fairly recently. In fact once I did look into his history I think if it weren't for his knee injury (I think a lot, more likely most, people didn't know he tore his MCL in the opening game of his Jr season prior to the lymphoma diagnosis) and cancer issues he'd have likely been seen as big time player. He had stuff like this going on.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/doak-walker-rankings-gurley-vs-conner/

Hell, if he'd just switched the order around and had his issues early and finished his Jr year with his So performance he'd almost certainly have been a 1st rounder.

Shoulda woulda coulda. James Conner went in the 3rd round. And even if not for the cancer or the knee injury, there were concerns about his athleticism. He didn't test that well at the combine. So even if he never had the cancer or the knee injury, running 4.65 in the 40 wasn't gonna land him in the 1st round.

Nonetheless, who cares where he could've been drafted. NOBODY had him rated above Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook at anytime in his college career. Those guys always got more hype. And they were better athletes at the combine. And yet I was able to see that Conner was gonna be the better NFL RB. I rated James Conner as a SUPERSTAR NFL RB even though he tested poorly at the combine.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I still do not understand how he thinks Dobbs is a good looking guy. I like Dobbs. I think he's a good guy and dang smart. But he looks like an alien.

He has a disease (Alopecia) which causes hair loss dummy. If you take off anyone's hair and eyebrows, they're gonna look weird. Outside of the alopecia, Dobbs is actually a very handsome man. Just look at this picture below when he's wearing a hat and has eyebrows thanks to some medical treatment he's been having done lately:

You tellin me this looks like an alien?

 

[hndog609]

Shoulda woulda coulda. James Conner went in the 3rd round. And even if not for the cancer or the knee injury, there were concerns about his athleticism. He didn't test that well at the combine. So even if he never had the cancer or the knee injury, running 4.65 in the 40 wasn't gonna land him in the 1st round.

Nonetheless, who cares where he could've been drafted. NOBODY had him rated above Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook at anytime in his college career. Those guys always got more hype. And they were better athletes at the combine. And yet I was able to see that Conner was gonna be the better NFL RB. I rated James Conner as a SUPERSTAR NFL RB even though he tested poorly at the combine.

You poor, sad little muffintop. I mean the troll move of having to skip to the part about Conner was lame but completely expected. My actually trying to throw props at Conner elicited this? I suppose the reaction to try to hold onto any possible example of you being right about anything to the fullest extent should have been predictable as well. When your numbers are this bad I guess I understand you needing to highlight any win you can get.

Just to show I'm playing straight I'll say 1st round would have been the best case scenario. This was assuming him being healthy and producing at roughly the same rate as his So year. And for comparison Le'Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde and TJ Yeldon were all 4.60 or higher at the combine and all were 2nd rnd. Even with Conner's issues only Bell had a season comparable to his best and he did that as a Sr as opposed to James being a So. Even still Conner had the higher ypc and none of them had more career yardage. Eh, we'll never know.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Just to show I'm playing straight I'll say 1st round would have been the best case scenario. This was assuming him being healthy and producing at roughly the same rate as his So year. And for comparison Le'Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde and TJ Yeldon were all 4.60 or higher at the combine and all were 2nd rnd. Even with Conner's issues only Bell had a season comparable to his best and he did that as a Sr as opposed to James being a So. Even still Conner had the higher ypc and none of them had more career yardage. Eh, we'll never know.

Sure. But that's the 2nd round. You said 1st round in your earlier post. If Conner was healthy and continued to produce I agree he goes in the 2nd round but there's zero chance he woulda went in the 1st.

We don't need to say "we'll never know". We can look at history and see that no RB in recent memory who runs 4.65 or slower goes in the 1st round. All your examples were of 2nd rounders. Which is where guys like Conner go. The highly productive but not super athletic college RB.

I was able to see through Conner's limitations at the combine and rate him higher than Leonard Fournette who went 4th overall. You can keep trying to make excuses but I'm the only one who saw this level of success coming for James Conner. THE ONLY ONE.

 

[hndog609]

Sure. But that's the 2nd round. You said 1st round in your earlier post. If Conner was healthy and continued to produce I agree he goes in the 2nd round but there's zero chance he woulda went in the 1st.

We don't need to say "we'll never know". We can look at history and see that no RB in recent memory who runs 4.65 or slower goes in the 1st round. All your examples were of 2nd rounders. Which is where guys like Conner go. The highly productive but not super athletic college RB.

I was able to see through Conner's limitations at the combine and rate him higher than Leonard Fournette who went 4th overall. You can keep trying to make excuses but I'm the only one who saw this level of success coming for James Conner. THE ONLY ONE.

Absolutely loving the barely contained sense of desperation in this...very telling. I have nice things to say about your guy and the only thing you make of it is some threat to your faux (as in more wrong than right) eye for talent. Hey that reminds me:

I quoted earlier a post of yours about how 100% confident (100%!) of Goff's second season being a fluke you were. (this of course after him supposed to be an epic bust in the first place) Damndest thing, a look at the passing leaders doesn't exactly sync up with that...like even a little bit. He'd have to play like, IDK, Josh Allen, for the rest of the season for the fluke thing to look right. In the bonus round Mayfield is basically pretty much owning the QB rookie season.

Funny, a glance at rushing over the last two seasons has "fool's gold" Hunt and "scrub" Melvin Gordon in the top 5 in rushing. In fact over this span only Gurley has more yards from scrimmage than those two. Interesting stuff since these weren't just people you ignored but openly disparaged.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Basically D4H has been right on about 2 guys. Conner and Kamara. 2 oit of like 100. Thats really something to gloat about.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Shoulda woulda coulda. James Conner went in the 3rd round. And even if not for the cancer or the knee injury, there were concerns about his athleticism. He didn't test that well at the combine. So even if he never had the cancer or the knee injury, running 4.65 in the 40 wasn't gonna land him in the 1st round.

Nonetheless, who cares where he could've been drafted. NOBODY had him rated above Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook at anytime in his college career. Those guys always got more hype. And they were better athletes at the combine. And yet I was able to see that Conner was gonna be the better NFL RB. I rated James Conner as a SUPERSTAR NFL RB even though he tested poorly at the combine.

Conner is benefiting from a HoF QB, the best WR corp in the NFL and one if the NFLs best offensive lines. Put LF or Cook on the Steelers and they would flourish.

Oh and how about them Raiders, Packers, Bengals and Gruden? Man you are just a savant arent you?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Absolutely loving the barely contained sense of desperation in this...very telling. I have nice things to say about your guy and the only thing you make of it is some threat to your faux (as in more wrong than right) eye for talent. Hey that reminds me:

I quoted earlier a post of yours about how 100% confident (100%!) of Goff's second season being a fluke you were. (this of course after him supposed to be an epic bust in the first place) Damndest thing, a look at the passing leaders doesn't exactly sync up with that...like even a little bit. He'd have to play like, IDK, Josh Allen, for the rest of the season for the fluke thing to look right. In the bonus round Mayfield is basically pretty much owning the QB rookie season.

Funny, a glance at rushing over the last two seasons has "fool's gold" Hunt and "scrub" Melvin Gordon in the top 5 in rushing. In fact over this span only Gurley has more yards from scrimmage than those two. Interesting stuff since these weren't just people you ignored but openly disparaged.

Keep projecting. I've never been desperate in my life. I'm not built like that.

Talk about jumping from one subject to the next. What do Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have to do with James Conner? That was who we were discussing. You are the one who made the falicious assumption he would have been a 1st round pick if he didn't injure his knee. I pointed out how he struggled at the combine with a subpar showing in the athletic testing and how no RB who puts up poor combine numbers like that ever gets drafted in the 1st round. You then went on to name RBs that went in the 2nd round that posted similarly poor combine numbers. And that's when I said "sure Conner coulda been a 2nd rounder but not a 1st rounder as you first stated."

If anyone is desperate given how you've completely tried to change the subject on what we were discussing, it seems to be you. I'm more than happy to discuss Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon any day of the week. But at this moment we were discussing James Conner and your silly assertion that he would've been a 1st round pick. So why don't you stay on topic rather than jumping around buddy.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Basically D4H has been right on about 2 guys. Conner and Kamara. 2 oit of like 100. Thats really something to gloat about.

No. I've been right about many others. I had Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) rated as a Pro-Bowl/All-Pro prospect before the draft. Its not saying much cause a lot of other people also had them rated high but I had Joe Mixon (Bengals) and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) rated as Pro-Bowl talents and both are playing at that level this year. I had Tarik Cohen (Bears) and Matt Breida (49ers) rated as top sleepers at the RB position and they have both made huge impacts for their teams this season. I had JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers) rated as the 2nd best WR in the 2017 Draft and a Pro-Bowl talent when most had him going in the 2nd round after 4-5 other WRs. In terms of negative predictions, I told ya'll Derek Barnett (Eagles) was not a NFL star even though many on here kept trying to argue that he was better than Myles Garrett (Browns). I was also right on my safety evaluations when it comes to Marcus Williams (Saints), John Johnson (Rams), Eddie Jackson (Bears).

And that's just from the 2017 Draft class. And in only their 2nd year. If you notice, thus far I've been the most accurate with my RB rankings in the 2017 Draft. And considering RBs make their biggest impact early in their career, this should be a bad sign for you guys who I think I've missed thus far on the rest of my evaluations.

If my RB rankings look this good, it only means the rest of my rankings will catch up as the rest of the position players hit their primes.

 

[TDawg]

No. I've been right about many others. I had Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) rated as a Pro-Bowl/All-Pro prospect before the draft. Its not saying much cause a lot of other people also had them rated high but I had Joe Mixon (Bengals) and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) rated as Pro-Bowl talents and both are playing at that level this year. I had Tarik Cohen (Bears) and Matt Breida (49ers) rated as top sleepers at the RB position and they have both made huge impacts for their teams this season. I had JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers) rated as the 2nd best WR in the 2017 Draft and a Pro-Bowl talent when most had him going in the 2nd round after 4-5 other WRs. In terms of negative predictions, I told ya'll Derek Barnett (Eagles) was not a NFL star even though many on here kept trying to argue that he was better than Myles Garrett (Browns). I was also right on my safety evaluations when it comes to Marcus Williams (Saints), John Johnson (Rams), Eddie Jackson (Bears).

And that's just from the 2017 Draft class. And in only their 2nd year. If you notice, thus far I've been the most accurate with my RB rankings in the 2017 Draft. And considering RBs make their biggest impact early in their career, this should be a bad sign for you guys who I think I've missed thus far on the rest of my evaluations.

If my RB rankings look this good, it only means the rest of my rankings will catch up as the rest of the position players hit their primes.

First, who says Barnett isn't turning into a very good player, maybe even star value. He got injured this year (my managing partner is a HUGE Eagles fan and my wife's really good friends are Eagles fans) but prior to that, they, the Eagles and the fans, were ecstatic about his play. And can't explain his play away because he's injured but excuse Josh Allen because of injury.

Out of the rest above, I'll give you credit for Breida and that's about it. There isn't a lot up there that wasn't already being seen as future stars (Mahomes was pegged to be a stud and right now, the best QB to come through in the past few years, Mixon had all the talent in the world if he can stay out of trouble, McCaffrey was a first round pick for crying out loud, Smith-Schuster was a highly rated second round pick).

The best part of ALL of this is the fact that you always point to a handful of names and think that covers up the INSANE amount of misses: Hogan, Taylor, Kaaya, Goff, Allen, Gordon, Bosa, Mayfield, DOBBS, Sutton (good but far from your pegged greatness), Hunt and we really could go on and on. You have posts on here titled "Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are clearly the best two QBs in the draft" and all that is clear is that you are still pretending to know what you're talking about with regards to QBs.

You can try to spin all of this but it just comes out to being utter nonsense. Allen has played in six games and not one of the top QBs over the last 10-15 years had this horrible of a start. IF you ACTUALLY watched his games, the dude looks so lost out there it reminds me of (to use one of your tactics) this guy .. Ryan Leaf: Game Logs at NFL.com ...

Just keep in mind, any spin you try to use on guys you pegged as busts but are actually doing really good, we can apply that same logic to your "hits" too ..

 

[superdave1984]

He has a disease (Alopecia) which causes hair loss dummy. If you take off anyone's hair and eyebrows, they're gonna look weird. Outside of the alopecia, Dobbs is actually a very handsome man. Just look at this picture below when he's wearing a hat and has eyebrows thanks to some medical treatment he's been having done lately:

You tellin me this looks like an alien?

Yes I am. Based on what you say, Brady Quinn should be in the hall of fame.

 

[TDawg]

I'm not taking away from these players work ethic. I'm not saying they've had things handed to them like pretty women get things handed to them cause people find them attractive. I'm just saying there is a correlation between how good you look and how successful you are. Its possible there is a genetic component to this. But there is no denying the clear correlation between looks and success in sports.

There's plenty denying it .. Matt Stafford is in for over 37k yards and that dude is UGLY. Blake Snell just won the AL Cy Young and he is REALLY UGLY. There is no correlation unless you live in the world of make believe.

 

[hndog609]

Keep projecting. I've never been desperate in my life. I'm not built like that.

Talk about jumping from one subject to the next. What do Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have to do with James Conner? That was who we were discussing. You are the one who made the falicious assumption he would have been a 1st round pick if he didn't injure his knee. I pointed out how he struggled at the combine with a subpar showing in the athletic testing and how no RB who puts up poor combine numbers like that ever gets drafted in the 1st round. You then went on to name RBs that went in the 2nd round that posted similarly poor combine numbers. And that's when I said "sure Conner coulda been a 2nd rounder but not a 1st rounder as you first stated."

If anyone is desperate given how you've completely tried to change the subject on what we were discussing, it seems to be you. I'm more than happy to discuss Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt, and Melvin Gordon any day of the week. But at this moment we were discussing James Conner and your silly assertion that he would've been a 1st round pick. So why don't you stay on topic rather than jumping around buddy.

LOL! Now THIS is going to make Volfanbill and others that were worried about your troll game happy. Let's face it, your TER (Troll Efficiency Rating) has taken some hits of late. (your injuries only matter if it benefits your argument and game outcomes are pure chance are particular low points) But this is you putting your spin on high. See this?

"I have nice things to say about your guy and the only thing you make of it is some threat to your faux (as in more wrong than right) eye for talent. Hey that reminds me:"

That's a very, very obvious segue. The beauty is we all know you are aware of this but stayed in your foxhole. See, bad trolling gets boring REALLY fast. Even with this improvement your shtick falls into repetitive tropes pretty quickly.

 

[peaygolf]

He has a disease (Alopecia) which causes hair loss dummy. If you take off anyone's hair and eyebrows, they're gonna look weird. Outside of the alopecia, Dobbs is actually a very handsome man. Just look at this picture below when he's wearing a hat and has eyebrows thanks to some medical treatment he's been having done lately:

You tellin me this looks like an alien?

That goodness the Flat Bill is gone!

 

[hndog609]

Basically D4H has been right on about 2 guys. Conner and Kamara. 2 oit of like 100. Thats really something to gloat about.

In fairness he's got more than that BUT that's not really the issue. D4H has so many %$*@%&@ predictions out there if you took all of them off the forum Freak's servers would actually be physically lighter. He's a golfer with a 75 handicap that will never let you forget those few good shots among the all the hacks. He's a .125 batter that crows incessantly about the two homers and handful of doubles he's hit.

He's D4H.

 

[superdave1984]

There's plenty denying it .. Matt Stafford is in for over 37k yards and that dude is UGLY. Blake Snell just won the AL Cy Young and he is REALLY UGLY. There is no correlation unless you live in the world of make believe.

Randy Johnson
Evander Holyfield
Mike Tyson
Patrick Ewing
Charles Barkley

The list goes on and on and on.

 

[peaygolf]

 

[TDawg]

View attachment 176313

You Win !!! Willie couldn't win a beauty pageant in a dog show full of schnauzers

 

[hndog609]

Randy Johnson
Evander Holyfield
Mike Tyson
Patrick Ewing
Charles Barkley

The list goes on and on and on.

Dennis Rodman
Scottie Pippen
Larry Bird
Bill Walton
Jack Lambert
Terrell Suggs
Marshawn Lynch

You're right. Even if one tries to correct for how subjective this is as it's very foundation there are FAR too many exceptions to put any practical validity to the metric.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

First, who says Barnett isn't turning into a very good player, maybe even star value. He got injured this year (my managing partner is a HUGE Eagles fan and my wife's really good friends are Eagles fans) but prior to that, they, the Eagles and the fans, were ecstatic about his play. And can't explain his play away because he's injured but excuse Josh Allen because of injury.

Out of the rest above, I'll give you credit for Breida and that's about it. There isn't a lot up there that wasn't already being seen as future stars (Mahomes was pegged to be a stud and right now, the best QB to come through in the past few years, Mixon had all the talent in the world if he can stay out of trouble, McCaffrey was a first round pick for crying out loud, Smith-Schuster was a highly rated second round pick).

The best part of ALL of this is the fact that you always point to a handful of names and think that covers up the INSANE amount of misses: Hogan, Taylor, Kaaya, Goff, Allen, Gordon, Bosa, Mayfield, DOBBS, Sutton (good but far from your pegged greatness), Hunt and we really could go on and on. You have posts on here titled "Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are clearly the best two QBs in the draft" and all that is clear is that you are still pretending to know what you're talking about with regards to QBs.

You can try to spin all of this but it just comes out to being utter nonsense. Allen has played in six games and not one of the top QBs over the last 10-15 years had this horrible of a start. IF you ACTUALLY watched his games, the dude looks so lost out there it reminds me of (to use one of your tactics) this guy .. Ryan Leaf: Game Logs at NFL.com ...

Just keep in mind, any spin you try to use on guys you pegged as busts but are actually doing really good, we can apply that same logic to your "hits" too ..

First of all, my first complete draft class was the 2017 draft. That is when I actually evaluated the players. 2016 was just me having a lil fun. You guys took it seriously trying to pick it apart. Once I saw that, I decided to actually put in the work.

2017 and 2018 are my draft evaluations thus far. Stay on that.

With regard to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, they're just rookies. Come talk to me in a year or two. I don't care to get into debates about QBs this early in the process. Even Dobbs has yet to get any meaningful action. I stand by my evaluations but don't come at me with some you missed on em just cause they've barely played.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Yes I am. Based on what you say, Brady Quinn should be in the hall of fame.

What I'm talking about is more than being attractive to the opposite sex. There's got to be a look in the eyes of determination and relentless drive. Quinn never had that. So its not just about look good. That is why I always say its a look of greatness rather than just being attractive.

Dobbs has the same look in his eyes that Tom Brady does. That's why I'm so confident in him. He's just destined to succeed.