Could Smith and Solomon be worth two wins?

[Vfl2407]

Heard on radio a Vol discussion stating that a healthy and effective Smith and an eligible and game ready Solomon are both worth an extra win should they play this year.
Is that too much of an exaggeration?
The conversation basically said that we are a 6-6 team without them and 8-4 with them.

 

[NcVolfan24]

I'd say Trey Smith should be more impactful. Solomon could be a factor but I think that even if he is ultra productive, that offenses could adjust with the quality of the rest of our d-line. Smith brings the offensive line more continuity and thus adds more than Solomon, IMO.

Regardless, I don't think it's a two win swing. Obviously, everyone here wants them playing, and wants winning, but I just can't agree the w/l column being impacted that much by these two linemen.

The only reason I lean away from the previous statement is the lack of depth. I still have a hard time believing that our "Next Man Up" is one or two losses worse than Solomon and Smith. If the gap is truly that wide then we are in trouble. Forget talking about 7-5 and 6-6 if that is the case.

 

[WoodsmanVol]

Putting all your eggs in one or two baskets isn't a winning formula. But a team that plays as a team on the other hand is.

 

[Vfl2407]

Putting all your eggs in one or two baskets isn't a winning formula. But a team that plays as a team on the other hand is.

I understand.
But these two guys are considered special talents at our two biggest areas of need.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

There are 26 starters (11 offense, 11 defense, 4 kicking game specialists). Include regular rotations on the defensive line, and total is about 30 players with primary impact on the game. Add head coach and coordinators as key decision makers and play callers, and you're up to 33.

There are 12 games in a regular season.

So on average, each player is worth 12/33 = about a third of a game. But that assumes the player in is infinitely better than whoever would fill in for him (which is never really true, the backup has value as well). In reality, if a player is twice as impactful as his backup, you cut the net value of his presence by about half. So about one-sixth of a game.

But we know the QB, the kickers, and the coordinators carry more than their share of the load for victories. A lot more.

So say the average starter (other than QB/kicker) is worth about one-eighth of a victory.

This radio discussion claimed each of these two gents was not only significantly better than the players around them, but EIGHT times better? That they could each have the impact of, say, a QB or the offensive or defensive coordinator?

I don't think so.

Love the lads, think the world of them, but no 2019 Vols player not named Guarantano will make that big a difference as an individual.

The power of football is in the TEAM. Not the one.

 

[WoodsmanVol]

I understand.
But these two guys are considered special talents at our two biggest areas of need.

Got no doubt about that. Just remember what happened to Tuttle and Kennedy for that matter. One play and we could be without either or both. The team must be ready to play without them with a next man up, we're going to win this thing attitude. I'd love to have everyone we should cause I do think it will make a difference. But our boys need to be tough-minded so they don't get demoralized like they did when Justin Hunter got hurt in that Florida game. The team wasn't the same after that. Here's to a fun and winning season, VFL. Vols forever!

 

[Valencia]

"So on average, each player is worth 12/33 = about a third of a game."

Wait, wuuut? We're playing 3 on 3?

 

[Vfl2407]

"So on average, each player is worth 12/33 = about a third of a game."

Wait, wuuut? We're playing 3 on 3?

I’m not following all this math.
My post Is that certain players on every team are considered “difference makers”.
The discussion I heard said that Smith and Solomon, if they play, would probably be our BEST players on each side of the ball. If true, that makes them VERY valuable additions.

 

[Roustabout]

I'd say Trey Smith should be more impactful. Solomon could be a factor but I think that even if he is ultra productive, that offenses could adjust with the quality of the rest of our d-line. Smith brings the offensive line more continuity and thus adds more than Solomon, IMO.

Regardless, I don't think it's a two win swing. Obviously, everyone here wants them playing, and wants winning, but I just can't agree the w/l column being impacted that much by these two linemen.

The only reason I lean away from the previous statement is the lack of depth. I still have a hard time believing that our "Next Man Up" is one or two losses worse than Solomon and Smith. If the gap is truly that wide then we are in trouble. Forget talking about 7-5 and 6-6 if that is the case.

Depends if you are really getting two starter quality players. Being on medication for two years and having little to any contact work would affect the best players. I didn’t think Trey looked good at tackle and didn’t look like the same player that started his freshman year.

Solomon wasn’t starting at Michigan, so who knows how good he really is.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I’m not following all this math.
My post Is that certain players on every team are considered “difference makers”.
The discussion I heard said that Smith and Solomon, if they play, would probably be our BEST players on each side of the ball. If true, that makes them VERY valuable additions.

Heh, the whole premise of your original post is based on math. That two guys (out of 26 starters) are each worth an entire victory. That's two more wins, thanks to just those two guys, in a twelve game regular season.

See? Math is inherent in your post.

So if you don't follow all the math, you have no basis to decide whether that radio talk show made any sense. Right? Maybe you just liked the sound of it all.

Busting your chops, 2407, for posting something then backing away from what it means. Not trying to turn you into a physicist.

Bottom line, answering the question in your OP: yes, it is far too much of an exaggeration.


p.s. Being the BEST player on each side of the ball is a far different thing than being the most IMPACTFUL player on each side of the ball. QB is by far the most impactful on offense, even if one of his lineman is the best at his position. The QB is the only one on offense with enough impact to swing an entire team's win-loss record by as much as a full game. The math you didn't like helps explain why that is so.

 

[Vfl2407]

Heh, the whole premise of your original post is based on math. That two guys (out of 26 starters) are each worth an entire victory. That's two more wins, thanks to just those two guys, in a twelve game regular season.

See? Math is inherent in your post.

So if you don't follow all the math, you have no basis to decide whether that radio talk show made any sense. Right? Maybe you just liked the sound of it all.

Busting your chops, 2407, for posting something then backing away from what it means. Not trying to turn you into a physicist.

Bottom line, answering the question in your OP: yes, it is far too much of an exaggeration.

Ok, I’m not near smart enough to be a physicist, although the I do have a few cysts. Getting old sucks. Anyway, I just thought it was an interesting conversation and not the same “I only care about Smith’s health and the NCAA Sux” comments about these two players and whether or not we have them.
Of course, you can’t accurately quantity what any player means to any team.
But I do know that some players are more important because of talent level and depth at certain areas of need like both of our lines this year.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Ok, I’m not near smart enough to be a physicist, although the I do have a few cysts. Getting old sucks. Anyway, I just thought it was an interesting conversation and not the same “I only care about Smith’s health and the NCAA Sux” comments about these two players and whether or not we have them.
Of course, you can’t accurately quantity what any player means to any team.
But I do know that some players are more important because of talent level and depth at certain areas of need like both of our lines this year.

Amen.

And that is especially true because of how hugely important team dynamics are. Whether those 26-30 guys get along well, reinforce each other's strengths and cover for each other's weaknesses, motivate each other to play a higher level of the game than they otherwise could...well, all that "extra" stuff that comes with group dynamics is just as important as the base value of each individual.

If Trey Smith is a great leader and motivator for his teammates (indications are that he is), if he brings a cohesion to the OL that they don't have without him, that will potentially add far more to our success even than his ability to block faithfully, down after down.

And so I would be more tempted to amp Trey's potential impact up--not to a full game, but significantly higher than his one-eighth share. Maybe a quarter of a victory, or a third even. In the world of giving individuals (who aren't QBs/kickers) credit for wins, that's a big deal.

The freshman Solomon? No. He's not going to have that team-solidifying impact; too new to the team. Maybe in future years, but not this year. So "all" he brings is his playing talent. And that's not going to budge him much above his one-eighth.

 

[NcVolfan24]

Amen.

And that is especially true because of how hugely important team dynamics are. Whether those 26-30 guys get along well, reinforce each other's strengths and cover for each other's weaknesses, motivate each other to play a higher level of the game than they otherwise could...well, all that "extra" stuff that comes with group dynamics is just as important as the base value of each individual.

If Trey Smith is a great leader and motivator for his teammates (indications are that he is), if he brings a cohesion to the OL that they don't have without him, that will potentially add far more to our success even than his ability to block faithfully, down after down.

And so I would be more tempted to amp Trey's potential impact up--not to a full game, but significantly higher than his one-eighth share. Maybe a quarter of a victory, or a third even. In the world of giving individuals (who aren't QBs/kickers) credit for wins, that's a big deal.

The freshman Solomon? No. He's not going to have that team-solidifying impact; too new to the team. Maybe in future years, but not this year. So "all" he brings is his playing talent. And that's not going to budge him much above his one-eighth.

Solomon is not a freshman. Transfer from Michigan. Will be a Junior. Played in 5 games as a sophomore for Michigan last year while fighting through a knee injury. Previously was the #2 DT recruit in 2017.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Solomon is not a freshman. Transfer from Michigan. Will be a Junior. Played in 5 games as a sophomore for Michigan last year while fighting through a knee injury. Previously was the #2 DT recruit in 2017.

Oh, I'm sorry, you're right. I was thinking of a different fellow.

Regardless, the transfer Solomon is new to this team, and will likely have limited impact on group dynamics this season. He'll need time to prove himself and meld with the others, first. His contribution in 2019 is going to be largely limited to the direct physical performance part of the equation.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

Heard on radio a Vol discussion stating that a healthy and effective Smith and an eligible and game ready Solomon are both worth an extra win should they play this year.
Is that too much of an exaggeration?
The conversation basically said that we are a 6-6 team without them and 8-4 with them.

I don’t think we necessarily need Solomon to get a win, but would love to have him playing gives more rotational opportunities.

Now that being said having Smith back is definitely going to produce extra wins. They are moving him back to Guard which is his natural position. Go back to his freshman year and when Smith played guard they knew they could run it up his backside to get whatever yards they needed because they knew there would always be a hole.

With Smith back at guard the run attack will be lethal especially with Chandler.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

Depends if you are really getting two starter quality players. Being on medication for two years and having little to any contact work would affect the best players. I didn’t think Trey looked good at tackle and didn’t look like the same player that started his freshman year.

Solomon wasn’t starting at Michigan, so who knows how good he really is.

They are moving Trey to Guard again which is his natural position and they have said that Trey is in the best shape he has ever been in now.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

Oh, I'm sorry, you're right. I was thinking of a different fellow.

Regardless, the transfer Solomon is new to this team, and will likely have limited impact on group dynamics this season. He'll need time to prove himself and meld with the others, first. His contribution in 2019 is going to be largely limited to the direct physical performance part of the equation.

He was here in the Spring. The team likes him. He will make an impact this year if he plays he is one of our biggest D-lineman.

 

[Behr]

Oh, I'm sorry, you're right. I was thinking of a different fellow.

Regardless, the transfer Solomon is new to this team, and will likely have limited impact on group dynamics this season. He'll need time to prove himself and meld with the others, first. His contribution in 2019 is going to be largely limited to the direct physical performance part of the equation.

His contribution in 2019 is entirely dependent on being approved to play in 2019.

 

[orangemadam]

The impact of the two can not be measured mathematically very easily, mainly due to the impact of other players playing out of their natural position if these two don't play. At least that is my opinion.

I think these two together could absolutely mean a diff. of 2 wins, especially in a close ball game or a "tossup" game like S.C. and Ms. State.

I think with these two we are 8-4, without these two 6-6.

 

[savannahfan]

There are 26 starters (11 offense, 11 defense, 4 kicking game specialists). Include regular rotations on the defensive line, and total is about 30 players with primary impact on the game. Add head coach and coordinators as key decision makers and play callers, and you're up to 33.

There are 12 games in a regular season.

So on average, each player is worth 12/33 = about a third of a game. But that assumes the player in is infinitely better than whoever would fill in for him (which is never really true, the backup has value as well). In reality, if a player is twice as impactful as his backup, you cut the net value of his presence by about half. So about one-sixth of a game.

But we know the QB, the kickers, and the coordinators carry more than their share of the load for victories. A lot more.

So say the average starter (other than QB/kicker) is worth about one-eighth of a victory.

This radio discussion claimed each of these two gents was not only significantly better than the players around them, but EIGHT times better? That they could each have the impact of, say, a QB or the offensive or defensive coordinator?

I don't think so.

Love the lads, think the world of them, but no 2019 Vols player not named Guarantano will make that big a difference as an individual.

The power of football is in the TEAM. Not the one.

All the math left my head spinning. BUT, I agree with what you finally came up with.

 

[BeardedVol]

We really need 5 offensive linemen who have been practicing together in the spring an fall camps, and know each other well enough to act as a single unit. Our biggest issue since 2013 outside of being too small, is that the offensive line has been a revolving door or personnel due to injuries. You'll just never get consistent high-level play out of the unit, regardless of individual talent, if they aren't in tune with each other, and that doesn't happen when you swap a man out every two games.

 

[EricberryFAN]

Trey smith worries me man. I'd love for him to come back and help us get Ws and be apart of the team because he's NASTY!

I'd be lying even if he does get approved that I wouldn't be worried about the dudes heath. Putting the selfish football part aside, I hope whatever is best for him is what plays out.

 

[SpookyAction]

There are 26 starters (11 offense, 11 defense, 4 kicking game specialists). Include regular rotations on the defensive line, and total is about 30 players with primary impact on the game. Add head coach and coordinators as key decision makers and play callers, and you're up to 33.

There are 12 games in a regular season.

So on average, each player is worth 12/33 = about a third of a game. But that assumes the player in is infinitely better than whoever would fill in for him (which is never really true, the backup has value as well). In reality, if a player is twice as impactful as his backup, you cut the net value of his presence by about half. So about one-sixth of a game.

But we know the QB, the kickers, and the coordinators carry more than their share of the load for victories. A lot more.

So say the average starter (other than QB/kicker) is worth about one-eighth of a victory.

This radio discussion claimed each of these two gents was not only significantly better than the players around them, but EIGHT times better? That they could each have the impact of, say, a QB or the offensive or defensive coordinator?

I don't think so.

Love the lads, think the world of them, but no 2019 Vols player not named Guarantano will make that big a difference as an individual.

The power of football is in the TEAM. Not the one.

[VIDEO=]

 

[peaygolf]

I'd say 1.2875 wins

 

[Vfl2407]

View attachment 214644


I'd say 1.2875 wins

Now that’s impressive.
You should work on ESPN Gameday.