Coronavirus (No politics)

[volbeast33]

Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.

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Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.

They are going lower due to it not being easily transmissible to people that have previously had the illness and the rollout of the vaccine.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

We're about to get moderated, but I'm not sure that is true. For reasons I explained in a previous post, I think we are hitting herd immunity. The big spikes were part of that.

Not a disease specialist so I can't comment too much on it. I've done some reading on it and it seems like something like 50%-67% of the population would need to be resistant to the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If the number of total cases is accurate we're at around 8 to 9% right now, but that's likely lower than actual. Since we can't really quantify how many people have resistance to it that haven't had a positive test result (or even been tested for that matter). Plus you'd add to that number the recently vaccinated individuals as well.

Sill I don't think we as a country are near 50%, but I bet in some states/cities the herd immunity has started to kick in.

 

[volbeast33]

Not a disease specialist so I can't comment too much on it. I've done some reading on it and it seems like something like 50%-67% of the population would need to be resistant to the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If the number of total cases is accurate we're at around 8 to 9% right now, but that's likely lower than actual. Since we can't really quantify how many people have resistance to it that haven't had a positive test result (or even been tested for that matter). Plus you'd add to that number the recently vaccinated individuals as well.

Sill I don't think we as a country are near 50%, but I be in some states/cities the herd immunity has started to kick in.

I work in healthcare and they are telling us that there will be a fair semblance of normalcy in late spring and they expect us to be pretty much all the way back to normal by mid to late summer.

 

[jave36]

Not a disease specialist so I can't comment too much on it. I've done some reading on it and it seems like something like 50%-67% of the population would need to be resistant to the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If the number of total cases is accurate we're at around 8 to 9% right now, but that's likely lower than actual. Since we can't really quantify how many people have resistance to it that haven't had a positive test result (or even been tested for that matter). Plus you'd add to that number the recently vaccinated individuals as well.

Sill I don't think we as a country are near 50%, but I be in some states/cities the herd immunity has started to kick in.

Herd immunity is a spectrum. A community where 10% are immune is more susceptible to an outbreak than a similar community where 20% are immune. You don't have to be at "full" herd immunity to see benefits of herd immunity.

Some estimates are 2-3x of those who tested positive actually had it. So we could be around 20-25% immune at this point. In theory, the massive outbreaks are far less likely now than they were this past summer.

But you're right, the full herd immunity is probably a little ways off still.

I'll keep this mask on till mid summer, but I can't take it anymore after that.

 

[jakez4ut]

I work in healthcare and they are telling us that there will be a fair semblance of normalcy in late spring and they expect us to be pretty much all the way back to normal by mid to late summer.

my wife works in healthcare as well, and that's the estimates she hears also. there's some things that can affect that obviously, but i think it's been widely expected since Octoberish, that once the vaccine got approved, and the logistics worked out, mid to late summer would be the earliest it would get out to the masses, and at least be available. getting everyone vaccinated by then, that's probably a different story....

if i had to guess, i'd say Fall. we just need to get thru the next 5-7 months or so.........

 

[SSVol]

Not a disease specialist so I can't comment too much on it. I've done some reading on it and it seems like something like 50%-67% of the population would need to be resistant to the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If the number of total cases is accurate we're at around 8 to 9% right now, but that's likely lower than actual. Since we can't really quantify how many people have resistance to it that haven't had a positive test result (or even been tested for that matter). Plus you'd add to that number the recently vaccinated individuals as well.

Sill I don't think we as a country are near 50%, but I be in some states/cities the herd immunity has started to kick in.

Estimates of ratio of actual to confirmed cases are anywhere from 4x to 10x. Assuming 4x, then 10% is actually 40%. There has been a largely ignored bit of science that believes that T-cell immunity to a prior infection to a similar coronavirus might explain the high rate of asymptomatic cases, possibly 40%. If 40% of the remaining 60% have some form of T-cell immunity, that raises the effective level to 64%. If you then add the vaccines, we are easily in reach of herd immunity.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

The one small positive to take away is how quickly the vaccines were created, tested, available. Really hope moving forward we as a country (regardless of who is "in charge") put funding into trying to be prepared to do that in the future. Viruses will always pop-up and/or mutate and having the researchers and funding in place to quickly get vaccines to the public is essential to being prepared in the future.

 

[volbeast33]

my wife works in healthcare as well, and that's the estimates she hears also. there's some things that can affect that obviously, but i think it's been widely expected since Octoberish, that once the vaccine got approved, and the logistics worked out, mid to late summer would be the earliest it would get out to the masses, and at least be available. getting everyone vaccinated by then, that's probably a different story....

if i had to guess, i'd say Fall. we just need to get thru the next 5-7 months or so.........

It’s dropping pretty fast right now.....it doesn’t have to be full herd immunity for it to get to a level where we can truly start to live again...... one thing that gives me even more hope..... we are not seeing much as far as reinfection goes.

 

[jakez4ut]

Estimates of ratio of actual to confirmed cases are anywhere from 4x to 10x. Assuming 4x, then 10% is actually 40%. There has been a largely ignored bit of science that believes that T-cell immunity to a prior infection to a similar coronavirus might explain the high rate of asymptomatic cases, possibly 40%. If 40% of the remaining 60% have some form of T-cell immunity, that raises the effective level to 64%. If you then add the vaccines, we are easily in reach of herd immunity.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Estimates of ratio of actual to confirmed cases are anywhere from 4x to 10x. Assuming 4x, then 10% is actually 40%. There has been a largely ignored bit of science that believes that T-cell immunity to a prior infection to a similar coronavirus might explain the high rate of asymptomatic cases, possibly 40%. If 40% of the remaining 60% have some form of T-cell immunity, that raises the effective level to 64%. If you then add the vaccines, we are easily in reach of herd immunity.

Yeah hopefully that's the case, I just typically stick to the low side on most "estimates" thrown out about population related things.

Still a combination of factors are in place helping lower the number of cases. The precautious we've taken to help slow the spread have benefited us in other areas as well (like with the Flu season). I may continue the mask wearing moving forward, especially during the late fall/winter months. Helps keep the face warm too I've noticed.

 

[SSVol]

Herd immunity is a spectrum. A community where 10% are immune is more susceptible to an outbreak than a similar community where 20% are immune. You don't have to be at "full" herd immunity to see benefits of herd immunity.

Some estimates are 2-3x of those who tested positive actually had it. So we could be around 20-25% immune at this point. In theory, the massive outbreaks are far less likely now than they were this past summer.

But you're right, the full herd immunity is probably a little ways off still.

I'll keep this mask on till mid summer, but I can't take it anymore after that.

I saw some news citing a Columbia U study that had it at 4x. I tried to find the actual Columbia study and couldn't, but they have done a bunch of work on it, so I don't doubt it. That number isn't fixed, and definitely varies by region.

The thing that struck me was that when the confirmed cases got close to 10% in some areas, cases started falling fast. The Dakotas hit that in November. Tennessee started showing signs in December and then fell hard in January.

 

[jakez4ut]

Not a disease specialist so I can't comment too much on it. I've done some reading on it and it seems like something like 50%-67% of the population would need to be resistant to the virus before herd immunity kicks in. If the number of total cases is accurate we're at around 8 to 9% right now, but that's likely lower than actual. Since we can't really quantify how many people have resistance to it that haven't had a positive test result (or even been tested for that matter). Plus you'd add to that number the recently vaccinated individuals as well.

Sill I don't think we as a country are near 50%, but I bet in some states/cities the herd immunity has started to kick in.

the great unknown has always been just how many asymptomatic people are out there, just walking around spreading w/out knowing?

the contact tracing testing has helped identify a lot of people. but there's still millions that have never been tested, self included.

my youngest daughter has been tested, she had symptoms and was sick, was negative on both the rapid and swab. my wife gets tested every week for work, for the past 6 months, every one negative. my oldest and me, never tested.

so, and i think this is as true today as it was a year ago, until we either test everyone to know who has it and who should be quarantined or fall under whatever preventative measure appropriate, or vaccinations completed....we'll have to live with this on some level.

either way, i'm ready to get my kids back in school, and i'm ready to go back to being able to do my job like normal, and just have some semblance of normalcy- back...go to the movies, an amusement park, eat w/out being told to fix your mask, see family and friends i haven't seen in months etc.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Yeah, unfortunately the fear of the unknown especially with diseases/viruses flames a fierce fire of controversary. Some countries were quick to react and some weren't. Not every country that reacted quickly reaped tons of benefits.

End of the day not having existing vaccines or knowledge of symptoms/impact really elevated the urgency to take action (with masks, social distancing, crowd control etc.). The Flu has been present in our society for a long time and still racks up death totals that at times seem staggering. But it's a "known" so the level of concern is far less extreme. Usually the people who take appropriate reaction to having the Flu can recover from it.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Estimates of ratio of actual to confirmed cases are anywhere from 4x to 10x. Assuming 4x, then 10% is actually 40%. There has been a largely ignored bit of science that believes that T-cell immunity to a prior infection to a similar coronavirus might explain the high rate of asymptomatic cases, possibly 40%. If 40% of the remaining 60% have some form of T-cell immunity, that raises the effective level to 64%. If you then add the vaccines, we are easily in reach of herd immunity.

If you look at data both locally and nationally, we appear to be currently nearing HIT. Cases are down c. 80% in 6 weeks, hospitals are wide open, and deaths will plummet in the ensuing weeks (lagging the drop in cases and vaccination of the elderly).

No reason for schools to be closed anywhere. Everything should be able to open by spring.

Sorry I've been away, have spent most of my posting time in the Politics CV forum.

 

[SSVol]

If you look at data both locally and nationally, we appear to be currently nearing HIT. Cases are down c. 80% in 6 weeks, hospitals are wide open, and deaths will plummet in the ensuing weeks (lagging the drop in cases and vaccination of the elderly).

No reason for schools to be closed anywhere. Everything should be able to open by spring.

Sorry I've been away, have spent most of my posting time in the Politics CV forum.

I've mostly chosen not to post because it was so contentious.

I have closely tracked the numbers since the beginning. First noticed that Tennessee basically didn't bump post-Christmas, and then went into free-fall in January. Saw that a similar thing had happened in other states that were near or above 10%. Came up with the theory I offered. Then earlier this month, saw an op-ed from a Johns Hopkins doc saying the same thing. I think this thing is functionally over.

 

[VolGee4]

Just watch the America's Frontline Doctors video. They are the ones that aren't bought off by big pharma. Truth (and common sense) not misinformation. You can choose to believe your doctors and I can choose to believe mine.

I actually listen to my own doctor who I have a relationship with. I have said from day one that people need to talk to their own trusted advisors/doctors/professionals. If I have a financial questions, I use my financial advisor. If I have a legal question beyond my expertise, I ask a legal professional. Just the same with medical advice. Not all doctors will give you the same answers, but there are plenty of doctors who will tell you that masks do have a benefit.

 

[UpstateVol613]

 

[kiddiedoc]

I've mostly chosen not to post because it was so contentious.

I have closely tracked the numbers since the beginning. First noticed that Tennessee basically didn't bump post-Christmas, and then went into free-fall in January. Saw that a similar thing had happened in other states that were near or above 10%. Came up with the theory I offered. Then earlier this month, saw an op-ed from a Johns Hopkins doc saying the same thing. I think this thing is functionally over.

Same story here. I calculated in early December, using seroprevalence rate and assuming some level of background immunity, that we would see a drop in cases mid-late January with an approach to HIT by spring. I'm extremely glad that it's happening.

 

[BigOrangeAl 1979]

I’m so ready to go to concerts again.

 

[MAD]

If you wanna wear a mask you go right ahead. There’s as much or more “science” that disputes the effectiveness of masks as there is that supports it. Handwashing is just common sense at all times. Social distancing, hey man, if you’re coughing or sneezing... I’m distancing myself, period. If I’m coughing or sneezing, you should distance from me, but you won’t have to, because I have enough respect for others not to subject them to my illness. And yes, it’s very sad, very despicable, what this “Covid 19” has done to us all, along with all the other “Covid(s)”.... yet, it’s quite astonishing to see all other forms of death have dropped precipitously in its wake...hmmmmm. And yet, in California, where the extreme measures pertaining to distancing, mask wearing, etc. have taken place, the “Covid” rages....hmmmmmm. And that’s all I wanna say about that.

Bet you believe us going to the moon was a hoax.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Bet you believe us going to the moon was a hoax.

I can assure you that he's right about the masks, though.

 

[SSVol]

View attachment 354142

That is oddly close to the pages of my high school yearbook and my wife's engagement photo.

 

[Gladiator1]

I actually listen to my own doctor who I have a relationship with. I have said from day one that people need to talk to their own trusted advisors/doctors/professionals. If I have a financial questions, I use my financial advisor. If I have a legal question beyond my expertise, I ask a legal professional. Just the same with medical advice. Not all doctors will give you the same answers, but there are plenty of doctors who will tell you that masks do have a benefit.

I'm glad that I didn't listen to the financial advise on Enron. Look I'm not trying to be an a#$ but this stuff just doesn't add up. With a mask I can smell a fart or perfume, both particles are smaller than the virus, so where is the protection. They say close contact is 15 minutes with someone less than 6 feet. So if I'm in a store, by myself, for 10 minutes who cares if I were a mask. I'm not a science denier but for the love of God would someone please pick the correct science so I can make a logical decision.

 

[vollygirl]

I'm glad that I didn't listen to the financial advise on Enron. Look I'm not trying to be an a#$ but this stuff just doesn't add up. With a mask I can smell a fart or perfume, both particles are smaller than the virus, so where is the protection. They say close contact is 15 minutes with someone less than 6 feet. So if I'm in a store, by myself, for 10 minutes who cares if I were a mask. I'm not a science denier but for the love of God would someone please pick the correct science so I can make a logical decision.

It's about reducing risk, not eliminating it. I don't know why that is so hard to understand.

 

[Gladiator1]

It's about reducing risk, not eliminating it. I don't know why that is so hard to understand.

I do understand but with all the conflicting data the risks keep changing. At the airport you have to keep 6' apart until you sit 6 inches from someone on the plane. Our great virus leader proclaimed we don't need masks, then we should wear them all the time but then one dosnt work we now need two. But then again, I did wear a condom into Bottoms Up one time an came out unscathed..(I think)