Coronavirus (No politics)

mad4vols

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Whatever. I would believe the Rancourt gentleman over the likes of Fauci any day.
The poster will so readily embrace arguments, like Rancourt’s, that are simply not grounded in truth, and share them as if they are. Part of it is certainly confirmation bias; readers will pay attention to the parts of Rancourt’s argument that support what they want to believe, and ignore the parts that don’t (like the mistakes in Rancourt’s argument that invalidate it). But expectation bias is also active; the poster already believes masks don’t work, and so expects Rancourt’s argument to be good. He therefore sees it that way. He might even read the studies and think they support Rancourt’s thesis because Rancourt has made him expect exactly that.
 

SSVol

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The cause of decreased cases in Texas is simple. Snowmaggedon/Arctic Freeze kept us separate for a week!
Regions hit around 10% confirmed and then the bottom starts falling out. Happened in the Dakotas about a month before Tennessee. Tennessee started dropping in early January, right around the time that a post-Christmas wave should have hit.

The math is fairly obvious if you think about it. The confirmed case to actual case ratio is probably in the 4x range, so 10% is actually 40%. If the asymptomatic cases are really the result of T-cell immunity as some are suggesting, then you can add 40%-ish of the remaining 60% and be at 64% overall immune. Throw the vaccine on top of that, and boom, herd immunity.

I'm sure there will continue to be pockets of it, and I'm sure those with agendas will continue to exploit that, but it will fade hard in most places and people will insist on returning to normal.
 

Rishvol

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Regions hit around 10% confirmed and then the bottom starts falling out. Happened in the Dakotas about a month before Tennessee. Tennessee started dropping in early January, right around the time that a post-Christmas wave should have hit.

The math is fairly obvious if you think about it. The confirmed case to actual case ratio is probably in the 4x range, so 10% is actually 40%. If the asymptomatic cases are really the result of T-cell immunity as some are suggesting, then you can add 40%-ish of the remaining 60% and be at 64% overall immune. Throw the vaccine on top of that, and boom, herd immunity.

I'm sure there will continue to be pockets of it, and I'm sure those with agendas will continue to exploit that, but it will fade hard in most places and people will insist on returning to normal.
I've been insisting since it started
 

Vols4us

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Regions hit around 10% confirmed and then the bottom starts falling out. Happened in the Dakotas about a month before Tennessee. Tennessee started dropping in early January, right around the time that a post-Christmas wave should have hit.

The math is fairly obvious if you think about it. The confirmed case to actual case ratio is probably in the 4x range, so 10% is actually 40%. If the asymptomatic cases are really the result of T-cell immunity as some are suggesting, then you can add 40%-ish of the remaining 60% and be at 64% overall immune. Throw the vaccine on top of that, and boom, herd immunity.

I'm sure there will continue to be pockets of it, and I'm sure those with agendas will continue to exploit that, but it will fade hard in most places and people will insist on returning to normal.
That's how I saw it. We can debate the percentages, but the general analysis is what it is.

Please send this to Fauci. Tell him we are on to him. lol.
 

drvenner

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There isn't a particularly good reason for cases to be dropping as fast as they are right now, which strongly suggests that while 'novel', there was likely pre-existing immunity. Confirmed cases + unconfirmed cases + vaccine + apparent pre-existing immunity = cases falling like a rock = herd immunity is imminent. Unless a variant completely breaks that, there is a decent chance there won't be much to talk about by late April. I'm sure many will still err on the side of caution, but we may still be able to put a good group in Neyland.
You have been paying great attention to this since the beginning. I think you are spot on here as well. I do wish deaths would drop faster.
 
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SlingBlayde

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The poster will so readily embrace arguments, like Rancourt’s, that are simply not grounded in truth, and share them as if they are. Part of it is certainly confirmation bias; readers will pay attention to the parts of Rancourt’s argument that support what they want to believe, and ignore the parts that don’t (like the mistakes in Rancourt’s argument that invalidate it). But expectation bias is also active; the poster already believes masks don’t work, and so expects Rancourt’s argument to be good. He therefore sees it that way. He might even read the studies and think they support Rancourt’s thesis because Rancourt has made him expect exactly that.
These days, anyone that goes against the mainstream is going to attacked and “debunked”. Again, the purpose of my link was not Dr Rancourt’s information but the myriad of other studies he references.
Setting aside Dr Rancourt, virologists wear SCBA suits to protect themselves. Doesn’t logic dictate that a thin piece of cloth with wide gaps around the nose offers little to no protection against something .1 microns in size? Sorry I’m not drinking the MSM koolaid. The vape tests in the AFD video I posted illustrates my point.
 

SSVol

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That's how I saw it. We can debate the percentages, but the general analysis is what it is.

Please send this to Fauci. Tell him we are on to him. lol.
There is so much slop in the numbers it's impossible to be precise, but conceptually I think this is what happens. I noticed it happening in Tennessee in January, then noticed the same thing had happened in the Dakotas earlier. In mid February, a Johns Hopkins doctor put out an op ed pointing out the same thing, and apparently took some heat for doing so. Others around him saw what was happening, but didn't want anyone telling the public for fear we'd screw it up. Again, I think there will be regional hot spots, but the worst is over.
 

MoCo_Vol

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Then why is Covid still going strong?
Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.

1614274094921.png

Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.
 
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SmokeyLives

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The curves is finally going downward. But strange thing is that some refuse to wear masks and social distance. Maybe that has something to do with it?
If you wanna wear a mask you go right ahead. There’s as much or more “science” that disputes the effectiveness of masks as there is that supports it. Handwashing is just common sense at all times. Social distancing, hey man, if you’re coughing or sneezing... I’m distancing myself, period. If I’m coughing or sneezing, you should distance from me, but you won’t have to, because I have enough respect for others not to subject them to my illness. And yes, it’s very sad, very despicable, what this “Covid 19” has done to us all, along with all the other “Covid(s)”.... yet, it’s quite astonishing to see all other forms of death have dropped precipitously in its wake...hmmmmm. And yet, in California, where the extreme measures pertaining to distancing, mask wearing, etc. have taken place, the “Covid” rages....hmmmmmm. And that’s all I wanna say about that.
 
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SmokeyLives

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Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.

View attachment 354104

Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.
Now do charts regarding deaths over the same time period for influenza, heart attacks, cancer, car accidents, kidney failure..... and do total death charts for the past 10 years.....
 

MoCo_Vol

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If you wanna wear a mask you go right ahead. There’s as much or more “science” that disputes the effectiveness of masks as there is that supports it. Handwashing is just common sense at all times. Social distancing, hey man, if you’re coughing or sneezing... I’m distancing myself, period. If I’m coughing or sneezing, you should distance from me, but you won’t have to, because I have enough respect for others not to subject them to my illness. And yes, it’s very sad, very despicable, what this “Covid 19” has done to us all, along with all the other “Covid(s)”.... yet, it’s quite astonishing to see all other forms of death have dropped precipitously in its wake...hmmmmm. And yet, in California, where the extreme measures pertaining to distancing, mask wearing, etc. have taken place, the “Covid” rages....hmmmmmm. And that’s all I wanna say about that.
You're not right about California numbers...otherwise I don't disagree with you. If people truly practiced intentional social distancing and respect for others I think masks wouldn't even be pushed as a "needed" precaution as it is.

1614274396566.png
 

SSVol

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Cause the only way to eliminate the spread of any contagious virus is to eliminate the carriers of it.

View attachment 354104

Still sharp decline in new cases since last month, which is a big positive. And ya wonder if people had been more cautious about Holiday/New Year's gatherings if the new cases would be even lower than they are now.
We're about to get moderated, but I'm not sure that is true. For reasons I explained in a previous post, I think we are hitting herd immunity. The big spikes were part of that.
 
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