Dobbs 4 Heisman
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Alabama and Tennessee have yet to play a common opponent so its hard to stack the two teams up against one another. However, Tennessee has played 2 teams (Texas A&M and Florida) that have played against teams that Alabama has already faced.
Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 6
Florida - 45
Kentucky - 7
Alabama - 49
Arkansas - 30
Texas A&M - 45
Arkansas - 24
After looking at the box scores of the Alabama/Arkansas, Texas A&M/Arkansas, Alabama/Kentucky, and Florida/Kentucky games, I feel comfortable making the following predictions:
1. Tennessee's offense will out-gain Alabama's offense by nearly 100 yards. How Come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida were able to match the yardage output of Alabama's offense and defense when they faced Kentucky and Arkansas. In both our games against Florida and Texas A&M we out-gained each by roughly 100 yards.
2. Tennessee's rushing offense will average between 3.0 and 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's run defense held both those teams to roughly 2.0 yards per carry. Texas A&M and Florida's run defense in turn held Kentucky and Arkansas to roughly 3.0 yards per carry. That means Florida and Texas A&M's run defenses are roughly 1.0 yards per carry worse than Alabama. In our games against Florida and Texas A&M, we averaged between 4.0 and 5.5 yards per carry. That's 1.0-2.5 yards per carry higher than what they gave up to Arkansas and Kentucky. If we match our production against Florida and Texas A&M in terms of yards per carry over their average against Kentucky and Arkansas, then you're looking at approximately 3.0 yards per carry on the low-end and 4.5 yards per carry on the high-end against Alabama's defense. I would side with the low-end because its hard to imagine getting 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense.
3. Tennessee's passing offense will average between 8.0 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt against Alabama's passing defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's pass defense performed roughly the same as Florida and Texas A&M. Alabama shut down Kentucky's passing offense with the same success Florida did. And Alabama was lit up by Arkansas' pass offense to the same degree Texas A&M was. That means when we face Alabama we're not facing a pass defense that is superior to the pass defenses we've already faced in Florida and Texas A&M. Against Florida we averaged over 9.5 yards per pass attempt. I think that will be hard to replicate. Against Texas A&M we averaged approximately 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think that level of production is more likely.
This is a long way of saying we're not facing something we haven't seen already. Alabama is not an unbeatable juggernaut. As you can see from the game scores, Florida and Texas A&M had roughly the same success against Kentucky and Arkansas that Alabama did. The only major difference we will see this Saturday is Alabama's rush defense. Its roughly 50% better than the rush defenses we've seen from A&M and Florida. We should expect to average about 1.0 yards per carry less than we normally do. Other than that I don't see any major obstacles Alabama has that we haven't seen before. Their pass defense is comparable to A&M and Florida. Two teams we lit up through the air. Their offense is less efficient running the ball than Texas A&M (who is right now the best rushing team in the SEC) and more efficient throwing the ball than Texas A&M (who didn't really light us up that much throwing the ball).
This will be a high scoring 4 quarter game. We should be able to move the ball on Alabama especially through the air. We should be able to score on them. I expect us to score at least 35 points. Expect Alabama to also score on us. Our run defense will perform better than they did against Texas A&M but our pass defense will struggle a little more than they did against Texas A&M. I like our chances to win as long as we don't lose the turnover battle.
Tennessee - 38
Alabama - 35
Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 6
Florida - 45
Kentucky - 7
Alabama - 49
Arkansas - 30
Texas A&M - 45
Arkansas - 24
After looking at the box scores of the Alabama/Arkansas, Texas A&M/Arkansas, Alabama/Kentucky, and Florida/Kentucky games, I feel comfortable making the following predictions:
1. Tennessee's offense will out-gain Alabama's offense by nearly 100 yards. How Come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida were able to match the yardage output of Alabama's offense and defense when they faced Kentucky and Arkansas. In both our games against Florida and Texas A&M we out-gained each by roughly 100 yards.
2. Tennessee's rushing offense will average between 3.0 and 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's run defense held both those teams to roughly 2.0 yards per carry. Texas A&M and Florida's run defense in turn held Kentucky and Arkansas to roughly 3.0 yards per carry. That means Florida and Texas A&M's run defenses are roughly 1.0 yards per carry worse than Alabama. In our games against Florida and Texas A&M, we averaged between 4.0 and 5.5 yards per carry. That's 1.0-2.5 yards per carry higher than what they gave up to Arkansas and Kentucky. If we match our production against Florida and Texas A&M in terms of yards per carry over their average against Kentucky and Arkansas, then you're looking at approximately 3.0 yards per carry on the low-end and 4.5 yards per carry on the high-end against Alabama's defense. I would side with the low-end because its hard to imagine getting 4.5 yards per carry against Alabama's run defense.
3. Tennessee's passing offense will average between 8.0 and 8.5 yards per pass attempt against Alabama's passing defense. How come? In match-ups with Kentucky and Arkansas, Alabama's pass defense performed roughly the same as Florida and Texas A&M. Alabama shut down Kentucky's passing offense with the same success Florida did. And Alabama was lit up by Arkansas' pass offense to the same degree Texas A&M was. That means when we face Alabama we're not facing a pass defense that is superior to the pass defenses we've already faced in Florida and Texas A&M. Against Florida we averaged over 9.5 yards per pass attempt. I think that will be hard to replicate. Against Texas A&M we averaged approximately 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think that level of production is more likely.
This is a long way of saying we're not facing something we haven't seen already. Alabama is not an unbeatable juggernaut. As you can see from the game scores, Florida and Texas A&M had roughly the same success against Kentucky and Arkansas that Alabama did. The only major difference we will see this Saturday is Alabama's rush defense. Its roughly 50% better than the rush defenses we've seen from A&M and Florida. We should expect to average about 1.0 yards per carry less than we normally do. Other than that I don't see any major obstacles Alabama has that we haven't seen before. Their pass defense is comparable to A&M and Florida. Two teams we lit up through the air. Their offense is less efficient running the ball than Texas A&M (who is right now the best rushing team in the SEC) and more efficient throwing the ball than Texas A&M (who didn't really light us up that much throwing the ball).
This will be a high scoring 4 quarter game. We should be able to move the ball on Alabama especially through the air. We should be able to score on them. I expect us to score at least 35 points. Expect Alabama to also score on us. Our run defense will perform better than they did against Texas A&M but our pass defense will struggle a little more than they did against Texas A&M. I like our chances to win as long as we don't lose the turnover battle.
Tennessee - 38
Alabama - 35
