Coin toss

#3
#3
It is an interesting question, why Josh Heupel tends to receive first if he wins the coin toss.

I think--just a guess--maybe his thought process goes something like this:

(a) the only two ways a half can go* are: both teams get the same number of possessions, or the team that gets the ball first gets one extra possession. In other words, either abababab or abababa.

(b) early in the game is when we're most likely to be going at our fastest pace. At the extreme end, that can mean we possess the ball only about 2 minutes per offensive series, after which the other guys hold it for around 6 minutes. When we get 2/8ths of the clock and the other guy gets 6/8ths, chances are 75% that we're going to end the half on defense.

(c) put those two facts together, and it's safer to take the ball in the first half. It ensures that we won't be shorted a possession while we're going fast.

(d) then in the second half, when we (typically) slow down somewhat, meaning the chances of us ending the half with possession are closer to even with the other team, then let them go first.

I could be totally wrong about that. May not be what he's thinking at all. But mathematically, it makes a lot of sense.

As an alternate theory, it makes a lot of psychological sense for an offensive-minded coach like Josh to always go for the ball, whenever it is offered. Just as a knee-jerk reaction.

Either way, it seems to be working out for us, so more power to hiim!

Go Vols!


* aside from halves involving onside kicks where the kicking team recovers the ball.
 
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#4
#4
Tennessee tends to start fast and trail off in the second half. Adjustments from opposing team, tired legs?
That's probably why he takes the ball.
 
#6
#6
heehawvol said:
You taking or deferring? Personally I would defer and hopefully get a big stop to pump up the crowd even more. The thought of getting the ball and a quick 3 and out would be a "uh oh here we go " moment.
Thoughts?
Click to expand...

If I were a betting man, if this "toss" happens as you portray, I would bet Fla. gets a first down in this first series.
 
#8
#8
VFL-82-JP said:
It is an interesting question, why Josh Heupel tends to receive first if he wins the coin toss.

I think--just a guess--maybe his thought process goes something like this:

(a) the only two ways a half can go* are: both teams get the same number of possessions, or the team that gets the ball first gets one extra possession. In other words, either abababab or abababa.
Click to expand...

Yes, but would start over at halftime. So ababab or ababa then bababa babab. I don’t think there’s an advantage aside from setting the tone imo
 
#10
#10
I'd defer.
My thoughts are. If you defer and they score, it's oh well, that's what a team is supposed to do but if UT rec and get stopped then it gives FL a little boost
I'd only take the ball in OT
 
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#11
#11
Receive. Easy answer for me. You receive and try to score early and often to have Florida trailing in every one of their possessions.

For me the keys to game are to get Florida behind and put pressure on Richardson. Getting them behind forces them into a horse race requiring more passing. If we can get defensive pressure on Richardson with them playing from behind on scoreboard it is double trouble for Florida.
 
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#12
#12
I heard a coach speak to this one time in this fashion.
There are 8 most critical minutes in any game - the last 4 of the first half and first 4 of the second.
If you win those 8 minutes, then you have a better than 85% chance that you win the game.

By Huepel taking the ball first, it gives his team about a 75% chance they have the ball on Offense the last 4 mins of first half - better chance to win those.
Then the defense is freshly rested and has a better than average chance to win the first 4 of the second half.

As one poster already stated, it all comes down to pace and averages as far as getting the ball last in the first half.
You'll notice other coaches that don't run a tempo offense will always defer - it gives their team a better chance of winning the first four minutes of the second half.
 
#15
#15
I prefer to defer, but Florida’s game plan is to run the ball to shorten the game and keep it away from our offense.

If we get ahead by 2 to 3 scores and force Florida to pass / get away from their game plan then we could win big!

Long story short it doesn’t matter lol

Vols win regardless!
 
#17
#17
heehawvol said:
You taking or deferring? Personally I would defer and hopefully get a big stop to pump up the crowd even more. The thought of getting the ball and a quick 3 and out would be a "uh oh here we go " moment.
Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I believe in leading with your strength. Early ou oh's work out better than late ones simply because early ones get everyones attention while late ones create doubt.
Supreme confidence resides with our team thanks to leadership, despite still trying to play a couple of knuckleheads.
 
#18
#18
Defer, Neyland will be rocking on that first possession. florida won't be ready and hopefully an easy 3 & out start
 
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#21
#21
Normally I am a defer guy, and Huepel has deferred when he has the chance as in Pittsburg. That thinking was from the days when UT had a stellar defense and so so offense. I was thinking with the high octane offense and stapled together defense UT should take the ball, put up 6 and see what happens.
 
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