Clutch is Overrated!!!

#1
n_huffhines

n_huffhines

What's it gonna cost?
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#1
I've been trying to explain this for a while, but the data was limited, and I haven't been able to verbalize it as well as these guys.

Now that basketball-reference has made play-by-play data available for the last 10 years, we now have the data to learn about "clutch" play. They found* that "clutch" players tend to take more shots per minute in clutch situations, and shoot with less efficiency:

Of course when crunch time hits our clutch players have a tendency to shoot worse from the field. In fact, only Monta Ellis and Carmelo Anthony saw an improvement in their effective field goal shooting.

With an ability to look at clutch data closer it is very tempting to use it examine certain clutch players with a closer lens. And certainly it is also tempting to try and explain clutch time. Our players must be taking riskier shots at a quicker pace. Or maybe the defense really clamps down in clutch. In fact it’s pretty easy to believe that teams will change their strategy in clutch time and equally easy to believe they will not make optimal decisions.

What is important to do though is to temper this with how important it is. LeBron James was not clutch last season and neither was Dwyane Wade (whereas Carmelo Anthony and Monta Ellis were). That didn’t stop the Heat from winning lots of games and making it to the finals. We’re likely to overestimate the odds or importance of an event based on how easy it is to remember. Clutch shots are a great example of this. I’m not saying clutch shots aren’t fun, or memorable or even not important. I’m just saying perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to define players based on actions that make up less than 5% of their offensive plays.
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Clutch is overrated | The Wages of Wins Journal

*Clutch was defined as any shot taken with two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime with five points or less between the teams. The players were observed solely for the 2010-11 season.
 
#2
#2
In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.
 
#3
#3
Spartacavolus said:
In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.
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?

I'm reminded of earlier this season when Kobe dribbled the ball off his foot against the Jazz in the clutch.
 
#4
#4
Also found this

Capture-7.png
 
#5
#5
Here's Kobe again, failing to get a shot off in the clutch:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt7n0j7BPMk[/youtube]
 
#6
#6
Crap I wish I could remember where I found the article... it was more of an efficiency rating in the clutch, and counted the end of games even if they didn't take the shot and found an open man. Chris Paul's was just dominant.
 
#7
#7
Chris Paul is insanely efficient in everything he does, so that doesn't surprise me. He's unreal. He's the most efficient scoring PG AND the most efficient distributor.
 
#8
#8
Oh yeah. He is the best pure point of this generation.
 
#10
#10
What conversation is kidd in, by the way?

Gotta be in some kinda good one.
 
#13
#13
nbakerld said:
I've been trying to explain this for a while, but the data was limited, and I haven't been able to verbalize it as well as these guys.

Now that basketball-reference has made play-by-play data available for the last 10 years, we now have the data to learn about "clutch" play. They found* that "clutch" players tend to take more shots per minute in clutch situations, and shoot with less efficiency:



Clutch is overrated | The Wages of Wins Journal

*Clutch was defined as any shot taken with two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime with five points or less between the teams. The players were observed solely for the 2010-11 season.
Click to expand...

If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.
 
#14
#14
Rasputin_Vol said:
If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.
Click to expand...

Lotta people fail to realize this.
 
#15
#15
Rasputin_Vol said:
If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.
Click to expand...

So true.
 
#19
#19
#20
#20
Spartacavolus said:
In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.
Click to expand...

How do you explain this?

The un-clutch Lakers
One of the key arguments in his favor is that he draws double-teams, which allows other Lakers to score. But that doesn't seem to happen much. Over Bryant's 15-year career, the Lakers have had the NBA's best offense, and second-best won-loss record. No other team can match their mighty 109 points per 100 possessions over the entire period.

You'd expect Los Angeles to also have one of the league's best offenses in crunch time, right? Especially with the ball in the hands of the player most suited to those moments.

That's not what happens, though. In the final 24 seconds of close games the Lakers offense regresses horribly, managing just 82 points per 100 possessions. And it's not a simple case of every team having a hard time scoring in crunch time. Over Bryant's career, 11 teams have had better crunch-time offenses, led by the Hornets with a shocking 107 points per 100 possessions in crunch time, a huge credit to Chris Paul.

The Lakers are not among the league leaders in crunch-time offense -- instead, they're just about average, scoring 82.35 points per 100 possessions in a league that averages 80.03. They are, however, among the league leaders in how much worse their offense declines in crunch time.

When Bryant is on the floor in crunch time, Bryant's Lakers are actually outscored by their opponents.

A great offensive team performing at average levels, with a star setting records for number of shots attempted. Teammates left wide open. Evidence, even, that Bryant's play puts his team into nailbiters that needn't be so close.

That, my friends, is a ball hog.
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#21
#21
#23
#23
And speaking of Clutch, Fish has hit some huge shots in his career. He's not that good this year, but he hit a game-winning 3 as I recall.
 
#24
#24
nbakerld said:
How do you explain this?
Click to expand...

You can bend a stat however you want. Evidently, you don't like kobe. I don't care either way. But go ahead and tell a coach to sit a top player in NBA history when its crunch time. One that has multiple rings.
I guess Jordan wasn't clutch, but pax and kerr would be clutch. Who cares? The lakers without kobe have no championships. Period.
 
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