Clear Signs of Progress - 2013 vs 2014 Vols Statistically

Do you believe this team has made clear progress?

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#1
Rifleman

Rifleman

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#1
Despite playing an even tougher schedule so far this year, and losing key experience on the OL and DL, we are outperforming the 2013 Vol team through 9 games in many areas across all 3 phases of the game.

In 33 statistical categories for both teams through 9 games, the 2014 Vols have better numbers than 2013 in 22 categories. They are listed from largest improvement to smallest by phase below.

Phase - Category - 2013 rank - 2014 rank

Defense - Tackles for Loss - 108th (4.9 per game) - 11th (7.7 per game)
Special Teams - Punt Return Defense - 95th (10.43 yards) - 11th (3.35)
Special Teams - Kickoff Return Defense - 111th (25.18 yards) - 32nd (19.03 yards)
Defense - Sacks - 110th (1.3 per game) - 34th (2.67 per game)
Defense - Fourth Down Conversion Defense - 121st (80 % Allowed) - 51st (46.2%)
Defense - Third Down Conversion Defense - 101st (44.3% Converted) - 33rd (34.8%)
Offense - Passing Offense - 109th (172.7 ypg) - 64th (235.7 ypg)
Offense - Completion Percentage - 94th (55.1%) - 50th (60.8%)
Offense - Red Zone Offense - 59th (83.8%) - 20th (89.5%)
Defense - Total Defense - 91st (434.3 yards per game) - 53 (375 yards per game)
Defense - Rushing Defense - 112th (225.9 yards) - 76th (172.0 yards)
Offense - Passing Efficiency - 113th (105.67 rating) - 77th (122.08)
Defense - Scoring Defense - 92nd (32.0 pts) - 57th (25 pts)
Offense - Third Down Conversion % - 101st (34.8%) - 66th (40.4%)
Special Teams - Punting Net Yards - 56th (37.36 yards) - 34th (38.98 yards)
Offense - Interceptions Thrown - 104th (13) - 87th (10)
ALL - Penalty Yards per Game - 14th (35.9 yards) - 2 (28.22 yards)
Defense - Passing Efficiency Defense - 60th (123.81 rating) - 49th (121.29 rating)
Special Teams - Kickoff Returns - 35th (23.27 yards) - 25th (23.58)
Offense/Special Teams - Turnovers Lost - 95th (19) - 88th (17)
Offense - Total Offense - 101st (358.6 yards) - 95th (367.1 yards)
Offense - Scoring Offense - 86th (24.9 pts) - 83rd (26.2 pts)

Some take aways:

* Our defense has been transformed even though it is still thin (this would have been even more lopsided before the South Carolina game)
* The intense focus on Special Teams and recruitment of speed has paid off
* The improvements in offensive efficiency in the red zone and passing game are a product of experience from our skill players

There are several areas where we are performing about the same . . .

Phase - Category - 2013 rank - 2014 rank

Offense - Yards per Completed Pass - 117th (10.4 yards) - 117th (10.15)
ALL - Turnover Margin - 61st (+ 0.1 per game) - 63rd (0.0 per game)
Defense/Special Teams - Turnovers Gained - 22nd (20) - 27th (17)
Defense - Passes Intercepted - 14th (13) - 24th (10)
Defense - Passing Yards Allowed - 21st (208.3) - 33rd (203 )

NOTE: The anomaly of last year's WKU game looms large in our turnover numbers from 2013.


But, there are also some areas where we have taken a step backwards . . . .

Phase - Category - 2013 rank - 2014 rank

Offense - Fourth Down Conversion % - 55th (50%) - 87th (42.9%)
Special Teams - Punt Returns - 43rd (10.00 yards) - 85th (6.33 yards)
Offense - Rushing Offense - 48th (185.9 yards) - 100th (131.4 yards)
Offense - Tackles for Loss Allowed - 32nd (4.9 per game) - 117th (7.78 per game)
Defense - Red Zone Defense - 21st (74.4% opponents scored) - 114th (90.9% opponents scored)
Offense - Sacks Allowed - 19th (1.2 per game) - 118th (32)

On the negative side:

* Most of the regression here is a product of a uniquely inexperienced offensive line.
* The defense has played better overall, but has been below average once an opponent reaches the red zone.
* We haven't been returning punts well.
 
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#4
#4
If you're going to do this much research, then you should have a Paypal account to charge your readers!

Seriously, nice job. Perhaps some of the naysayers will quieten down a bit.
 
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#11
#11
Given the quality of our last three opponents in comparison to earlier on in the year and along with our newly revamped offense, those stats should separate themselves even more in favor of the 2014 team.
 
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#13
#13
I think everyone agrees their has been progress. Haven't seen many "nay-sayers". Have seen some who questioned coaches decisions.

Regardless. Good work. We've definitely improved. I don't think our schedule is any harder this year. Georgia and Florida are about the same (Georgia is worse now but with Gurley they were about the same as last year). Missouri and USC are worse. I think Bama might be slightly worse...but maybe not. I don't think Ole Miss is as good as auburn was last year. Oregon was better than Oklahoma. Vandy is worse. Arkansas St and Utah St. are tougher than our out of conference last year. So I think the schedule has been about the same...slightly easier.

Edit: I do believe we have THE toughest schedule in the nation for the second year running though. Just not any tougher that last year and maybe a little less.
 
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#14
#14
I'll be very interested to see how our D performs after a very very very badly needed 2 weeks of rest. That Georgia/Florida/Chatt/Ole Miss/Bama/USC stretch was brutal on our guys.

Our depth is better but towards Ole Miss our interior DL rotation got exposed. AJ and JRM have been playing ~80 snaps a game.

While our D has made impressive strides, remember they're still another full recruiting class away from even approaching where they need to be in regards to depth and rotation.
 
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#15
#15
Food for thought: how much different would this poll be if we did'nt come back against South Carolina and are looking at missing a bowl game again?
 
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#16
#16
Most important fact is that our season isn't over yet, and those stats will be improved upon in the following weeks. The boys are locked in and hungry to go bowling.....
 
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#18
#18
goldvol said:
Food for thought: how much different would this poll be if we did'nt come back against South Carolina and are looking at missing a bowl game again?
Click to expand...

Probably about as different as the mood on VolNation was after the Florida loss as it would have been if the Vols had beaten Florida. Progress can best be measured at the end of the season. Nevertheless, the trend is undoubtedly upward.
 
#19
#19
saxvol said:
The numbers don't lie, nice job.
Click to expand...

Actually... a few of them do.

Defense - Third Down Conversion % - 101st (34.8%) - 66th (40.4%)
Click to expand...

In this case, we are actually performing worse this year (40%) than last year (35%). The fact that our "ranking" improved from 101st to 66th is a reflection of other teams performing worse this year... not us getting better.

I think I saw a few examples of this in the numbers, but there's still no doubt we've improved in most areas.

Sorry... not trying to rain on anyone's parade. :hi:
 
#20
#20
Phil-A-Man Jaro said:
I think everyone agrees their has been progress. Haven't seen many "nay-sayers". Have seen some who questioned coaches decisions.

Regardless. Good work. We've definitely improved. I don't think our schedule is any harder this year. Georgia and Florida are about the same (Georgia is worse now but with Gurley they were about the same as last year). Missouri and USC are worse. I think Bama might be slightly worse...but maybe not. I don't think Ole Miss is as good as auburn was last year. Oregon was better than Oklahoma. Vandy is worse. Arkansas St and Utah St. are tougher than our out of conference last year. So I think the schedule has been about the same...slightly easier.

Edit: I do believe we have THE toughest schedule in the nation for the second year running though. Just not any tougher that last year and maybe a little less.
Click to expand...

I am only comparing the 1st 9 games from both years. We played Auburn and Vanderbilt in games 10 and 11 last year, so our stats in those games are not counted here. If you recall, we did not distinguish ourselves in those games, though.

Any schedule strength comparison I could find shows this year's schedule to be tougher through 9 games . . . .

Here is one measure using ESPN's Football Power Index.

Total FPI points for 1st 9 opponents:
2013 - 116
2014 - 125.4

Average opponent FPI 1st 9:
2013 - 14.5
2014 - 15.7
 
#21
#21
IBlvNTmWrk said:
Actually... a few of them do.



In this case, we are actually performing worse this year (40%) than last year (35%). The fact that our "ranking" improved from 101st to 66th is a reflection of other teams performing worse this year... not us getting better.

I think I saw a few examples of this in the numbers, but there's still no doubt we've improved in most areas.

Sorry... not trying to rain on anyone's parade. :hi:
Click to expand...

Good eye. Actually a database compile error there. I'll fix that manually in the main post.

Should read "Offense" instead of defense, so this year's conversion percentage is much better.
 
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#24
#24
The obvious problem with the stats cited is that the ones for last year were for the whole year. The ones for this year... Do not include the 3 least talented SEC teams UT will play.

If they take care of business like they should most of these stat lines will improve.
 
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#25
#25
volroadwarrior said:
I don't know, but I think we could come with a list of usual suspects.
Click to expand...

I for one can't vote... I will be able to when they finish their work vs Vandy in a few weeks. Right now, the stats are skewed by having played in order the 1st through 5th most talented SEC teams that the Vols will face. OU doesn't help matters either.

The best of these last 3 opponents is Mizzou... and they have the #115 offense in the country. Vandy saves them from being last in the SEC... but if you only look at conference games they only gain 250 per game while Vandy gains 249.
 
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