China's Looming Economic Crisis

#1
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Vol Main

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#1
"...this year China’s debt is expected to reach the equivalent of 275 percent of its GDP due to massive borrowing and economic slowdown. The United States, by comparison, is expected this year to reach a debt level of 98 percent of its GDP."

Given the current depreciation in China's domestic real estate markets(29 percent of gross domestic product) and the serious cash crunch among both consumers and governments(local, provincial, and national) China can ill afford to sacrifice exports to the United States and Europe. One wonders if it is adequately liquid for continuing the planned military expansion. Over the years, we've seen reports painting China's real estate market with shockingly bad colors. However Xi has managed, he seems to have over built and over spent for many years, and those chickens are now roosting.


China’s dim prospects turn disastrous
 
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#2
#2
98% of GDP? Really? So if we are at $30+ trillion in debt right now, that puts our GDP at $29 trillion.

The only way that could conceivably be right is if inflation (higher prices) and govt spending pushed it up that high.
 
#3
#3
Also, China ran up its debt by building infrastructure projects (dams, power plants, high speed rail, ghost cities), while we are $30 trillion in the hole because of endless wars, COVID money printing and other nonsense with nothing to show for any of it.

I think China will be fine.
 
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#4
#4
Rasputin_Vol said:
Also, China ran up its debt by building infrastructure projects (dams, power plants, high speed rail, ghost cities), while we are $30 trillion in the hole because of endless wars, COVID money printing and other nonsense with nothing to show for any of it.

I think China will be fine.
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Your quibble here distracts from the main topic, but I cannot help noting that you first argued the national debt is not up to $29Trillion. Then you stated that it is $30Trillion.
 
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#6
#6
Vol Main said:
Your quibble here distracts from the main topic, but I cannot help noting that you first argued the national debt is not up to $29Trillion. Then you stated that it is $30Trillion.
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I didn't say that. We all are fully aware the debt is $30 trillion and growing. I was arguing that our GDP isn't $29 trillion, or specifically, that there is no way our true debt to GDP ratio is 98%.
 
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#8
#8
Vol Main said:
"...this year China’s debt is expected to reach the equivalent of 275 percent of its GDP due to massive borrowing and economic slowdown. The United States, by comparison, is expected this year to reach a debt level of 98 percent of its GDP."

Given the current depreciation in China's domestic real estate markets(29 percent of gross domestic product) and the serious cash crunch among both consumers and governments(local, provincial, and national) China can ill afford to sacrifice exports to the United States and Europe. One wonders if it is adequately liquid for continuing the planned military expansion. Over the years, we've seen reports painting China's real estate market with shockingly bad colors. However Xi has managed, he seems to have over built and over spent for many years, and those chickens are now roosting.


China’s dim prospects turn disastrous
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Last up to date numbers I saw, the US was around 126% debt/gdp. We have nothing to crow about and the clown show in DC has snapped the rudder off this ship. We best worry about our own problems.
 
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#9
#9
MOOOOONEY said:
Who gives a d$mn about China.

We need to worry about our own country right now.

60 pack of eggs at Walmart:

4 months ago: $4.98
Today: $9.14
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I went grocery shopping today.. ours have gone up about fifty dollars a week on average in the past few months.. I was going to get granola bars but then put them back when I saw they were six freaking dollars lol
 
#10
#10
Vol737 said:
Last up to date numbers I saw, the US was around 126% debt/gdp. We have nothing to crow about and the clown show in DC has snapped the rudder off this ship. We best worry about our own problems.
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Correct me if this is wrong. Our Debt to GDP ratio is roughly around 3:2 while China's is 2.75:1 or 5.5:2
 
#11
#11
Vol Main said:
Correct me if this is wrong. Our Debt to GDP ratio is roughly around 3:2 while China's is 2.75:1 or 5.5:2
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What difference does it make?

And after what we have seen this year, I'm not so sure GDP is an accurate measure of an economy and I think the calculation of GDP (especially in this country) are heavily manipulated by including increased govt spending as economic growth.
 
#12
#12
We already have a China thread, but . . .

I'm not sure those people who think China is going to take over the world are looking at the full picture of what is happening there.

Even worse than their debt is their demographic outlook.
 
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#13
#13
Velo Vol said:
We already have a China thread, but . . .

I'm not sure those people who think China is going to take over the world are looking at the full picture of what is happening there.

Even worse than their debt is their demographic outlook.
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Explain please.
 
#14
#14
hog88 said:
Explain please.
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He's likely talking about trying to recover from their One Child policy. They are now offering incentives for parents to have more kids. India is poised to over take China ar the #1 spot in the next few years and China could dip below 1 billion.
 
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#17
#17
Rasputin_Vol said:
What difference does it make?

And after what we have seen this year, I'm not so sure GDP is an accurate measure of an economy and I think the calculation of GDP (especially in this country) are heavily manipulated by including increased govt spending as economic growth.
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But the same goes for China.

GDP isn't a perfect measure of an economy, but it's clear that we are in a better debt situation than them. If you believe that their government is capable of building infrastructure that is going to make that extra debt worth it, you have more faith in the communists than I do.
 
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#18
n_huffhines said:
But the same goes for China.

GDP isn't a perfect measure of an economy, but it's clear that we are in a better debt situation than them. If you believe that their government is capable of building infrastructure that is going to make that extra debt worth it, you have more faith in the communists than I do.
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And again, they built roads, bridges, dams, power plants, ports and ghost cities with their debt.

WTF do we have to show for our debt.? More wars lost? More MIC profits? More money flushed into destructive social programs?

Yeah, the communists are doing a much better job than the so-called American capitalists right now and it ain't even close.
 
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#19
#19
Rasputin_Vol said:
He's likely talking about trying to recover from their One Child policy. They are now offering incentives for parents to have more kids. India is poised to over take China ar the #1 spot in the next few years and China could dip below 1 billion.
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From my understanding the one child policy didn't apply to the minority groups in China.
 
#21
#21
jmacvols1 said:
Biden is bought and paid for by China....

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That’s okay. As we rack up more debt, China will get back pennies on the dollar from the interest on debt instruments they bought from us as we eviscerate our dollar’s purchasing power. We’ll show them! We’ll just destroy our own currency.
 
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#22
#22
jmacvols1 said:
Biden is bought and paid for by China....

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My head hurts. So he's talking about long standing international laws, China not playing by the rules and all of this other nonsense... meanwhile, The US and EU are on the verge of stealing Russian sovereign reserves.
 
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