Can the Vols be relevant while Saban is at the helm in Alabama?

#129
#129
Mtnvol80 said:
No. Vols can't out recruit Bama. Georgia and Florida are hot beds for recruits as well as Texas and Louisiana and I don't think we can pull the top recruits out of those areas from Bama or Georgia or Florida and now maybe a&m and LSU. I see us being mid tier for the foreseeable future no matter the coach or coordinators. Why would kids from those areas with those nearby programs wanna come to Knoxville? What's the selling point? We can't even keep our elite talent in our own State
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Fulmer did it. Even CBJ outrecruited UGA twice and UF nearly every year.

Selling point is either early playing time or come build something (what Bailey said). Importantly, this only lasts only about 2 full cycles (19 and '20). Then you hit an inflection point. You have to win big by year 3 to have a new selling point or you fall off like Butch's classes did. Saban, Kirby, Dabo, they all won something meaningful by year 3. Once you have your new selling point of success, that bumps your recruiting even more, thus leading to more wins, etc etc. This is "the machine" we speak of with Bama, Clemson, etc. Hit big and you can build something that lasts, blow it and you'll have no selling point and your time as a coach is limited.
 
#132
#132
SobeVol said:
All this being said! I know deep down you are glad you don’t play Bama every year because the last decade they would be stomping you too
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Ok, first of all, if I had my way, you wouldn’t be playing Alabama every year.

Auburn would be in the East and Missouri would be in the West and a rivalry that a lot of you don’t want and generates no buzz or resonates nationally with anyone outside of the two fan bases would be no more. It’s part of what upsets me about the whining in the first place. The situation only exists because Tennessee wants it.

Secondly, yes, Florida would be getting their rear handed to them every year. But, no, i wouldn’t be crying about it while Florida is finishing last in the division and getting owned all over the league. I would not be worried about the premier program in America while my school is incapable of competing with Vandy.

Another poster had it correct and the mentality has to change among fans, not just players and coaches. There’s always an excuse. We play Florida in September. We have to play Alabama. CBS hates us. Kramer/Slive/Sankey hates us. Espn hates us. Knoxville media hates Tennessee. The SEC is in Birmingham. Etc, etc, etc.

The goal for Tennessee is to win championships. They don’t give you championships for beating a bunch of trash.
 
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#135
#135
Yes but it will take a few years.

Also depends on what you mean by relevant. We were relevant at 5-0 and in the top 10 in 2015 until the wheels came off.
 
#136
#136
What a silly argument. Alabama isn't keeping anyone from being relevant in the SEC or nationally. Florida, LSU, the barn, Miss State have either won national championships or been #1 in the last decade. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia, even Arkansas have had their moments in the top 5 and top 10.

The SEC has been the best conference because they have the talent and coaching.
 
#137
#137
BanditVol said:
Yes but it will take a few years.

Also depends on what you mean by relevant. We were relevant at 5-0 and in the top 10 in 2015 until the wheels came off.
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I consider a team relevant when they are consistently able to beat good teams, basically where you are not just widely assumed to be a win for another good team, particularly when you are at home. We haven't been more than flash in the pan relevant since Fulmer was fired.
 
#138
#138
Devo182 said:
You do realize you're describing a great ~15 year stretch in the half century since integration, right? You're describing best possible outcome, not averages. Not saying we could never return to that peak, but right now (outside of the hope that the midstate keeps blowing up and producing in-state talent) I see no major systematic advantages vs our rivals.

And once Saban retires, UGA is certainly in line to become the next possible dynasty. Hell, their most talented class is their Freshman...
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I'm describing where I think our program is capable of being IF (and yes I know it's a big if) every one from the administration down to the players are committed to winning.
 
#139
#139
99gator said:
Ok, first of all, if I had my way, you wouldn’t be playing Alabama every year.

Auburn would be in the East and Missouri would be in the West and a rivalry that a lot of you don’t want and generates no buzz or resonates nationally with anyone outside of the two fan bases would be no more. It’s part of what upsets me about the whining in the first place. The situation only exists because Tennessee wants it.

Secondly, yes, Florida would be getting their rear handed to them every year. But, no, i wouldn’t be crying about it while Florida is finishing last in the division and getting owned all over the league. I would not be worried about the premier program in America while my school is incapable of competing with Vandy.

Another poster had it correct and the mentality has to change among fans, not just players and coaches. There’s always an excuse. We play Florida in September. We have to play Alabama. CBS hates us. Kramer/Slive/Sankey hates us. Espn hates us. Knoxville media hates Tennessee. The SEC is in Birmingham. Etc, etc, etc.

The goal for Tennessee is to win championships. They don’t give you championships for beating a bunch of trash.
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Soon!
 
#140
#140
Type Orange+ said:
I want to beat them like a drum while he is there and they're still at full strength.
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Saban will likely take the route that Bear Bryant took. Once his dominance has a crack in it and he begins to start losing, he will retire
We will be able,to beat Saban once or twice before he retires. He may be 72 or 73 years old at the time, but we will eventually beat him
He is not the only one thought. We have never beaten Muschamp or Urban Cried either
 
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#141
#141
Brave Volunteer said:
I'm describing where I think our program is capable of being IF (and yes I know it's a big if) every one from the administration down to the players are committed to winning.
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One key element in our late 80's-90's ascent was that Georgia was sucking with Ray Goff the way we currently are. It was during that time we really began to pilfer the necessary peach state recruits to be a national power, Clemson was also down and South Carolina was pre-Holtz/Spurrier. It was a perfect storm. When Richt came in and started beating us more often than not our ability to cherry pick Georgia became more of a situation where we had to fight like everybody else. Now with Saban at Alabama, Dabo at Clemson, and Smart at Georgia, Pruitt faces much stronger headwinds. Even if Pruitt is the guy, this is going to be a long rebuild, and it isn't going to be a straight up trajectory.
 
#143
#143
unfrozencvmanvol said:
One key element in our late 80's-90's ascent was that Georgia was sucking with Ray Goff the way we currently are. It was during that time we really began to pilfer the necessary peach state recruits to be a national power, Clemson was also down and South Carolina was pre-Holtz/Spurrier. It was a perfect storm. When Richt came in and started beating us more often than not our ability to cherry pick Georgia became more of a situation where we had to fight like everybody else. Now with Saban at Alabama, Dabo at Clemson, and Smart at Georgia, Pruitt faces much stronger headwinds. Even if Pruitt is the guy, this is going to be a long rebuild, and it isn't going to be a straight up trajectory.
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I still believe a program's success or failure is 90% determined internally. If we are handling OUR business the way we should, we will get our share. I firmly believe that.
 
#144
#144
Brave Volunteer said:
I still believe a program's success or failure is 90% determined internally. If we are handling OUR business the way we should, we will get our share. I firmly believe that.
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Well, I agree that you've got to be handling your own business or everything else won't matter, and we haven't been handling our own business for 10 years. Changing that is step 1.
 
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#145
#145
It is a Jimmy's and Joe's issue... Bottom line the combination of national and NATURAL recruiting area will always give AL, LSU, TAM, FL, and GA an easier path to backfilling their needs year in and year out than the rest of the conference. Should we logically be able to match the decorated talent hauls each year? Unlikely... the real question is can we close the gap in recruiting with better evaluations and player development. The good news is that with all the TV games now, a higher percentage of kids are more mobile that during the CPF years. The bad news is that is a variable each cycle and those more blessed programs still have a big advantage of being able to pick from those that do value childhood favorites or where momma wants to go to a lot of games and distance matters and then fight for the more mobile ones... Bama is what Bama is in the eyes of the recruiting base... NOW, they can screw it up... maybe they can dig down and find a guy named Mike to replace Saban when the time comes.... But all those blessed guys need less budget, and can afford losses in there natural area... not simply state lines, AU is walking distance for a lot of schools in GA.... FSU has always been closer that GA to the very southern GA prospects. so those areas are in their base not GA. We are close enough to parts of GA to be in play as well... But we have to be trending the right way to take advantage. FL can typically miss on 30 4 and 5 star guys in state and still sign 25., especially when FSU and UM are not trending strong.. GA is close. LA is an odd dynamic for LSU... but portions of MS and TX are in their wheelhouse. Texas has plenty of guys for the instate schools to divide.

I think TN is a a second tier with AU and probably SC where national historical perspective gets them deep into living rooms in border states and in some instances kids nationally willing to travel to play in the SEC. UM, MSU, MIZ, ARK, and KY are in a tougher pool, and Vandy is what Vandy is....

Pruitt could sign 25 bigtimers this year, and still not change the dynamics and win totals next year... it is possible to salt in some 5 start talent as FR, but our OL will not be top tier next year even if we get the guys we want in this class... better yes, trending the right way, yes. fixed no... the fight is beginning... but can we sell playing time two years in a row for our next class? We have a lot to sell, none of our facilities are shabby... our LOYAL fan base is not selling like it used to... and for good reason. Read this board... I assure you decision makers with top targets will... Not a show stopper, but I would bet it is a factor in their Risk/reward calculator since I doubt they simply bury their heads.

We can close the talent gap, really hope that is evident when we complete this class.. The rich and successful have their issues to deal with as well... especially with all the grad transfer opportunities... They can lose depth after losing out on players who calculated these guys in their playing time calculator.... all is not lost, but it will not be easy...
 
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#146
#146
Salty Dog said:
Dabo will succeed Saban. There may not be a significant drop off.
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By the time Saban retires in 5 or 7 years, Dabo will not be the leading candidate for that job. There will be other coaches on the scene by then.
We thought that Muschamp would replace Mack Brown at Texas also.
If Saban retires in the near future, then I agree Dabo would likely replace him, but in 5 to 7 years from now, I doudt that he will be the replacement.
 
#147
#147
GUNTERSVOL said:
It is a Jimmy's and Joe's issue... Bottom line the combination of national and NATURAL recruiting area will always give AL, LSU, TAM, FL, and GA an easier path to backfilling their needs year in and year out than the rest of the conference. Should we logically be able to match the decorated talent hauls each year? Unlikely... the real question is can we close the gap in recruiting with better evaluations and player development. The good news is that with all the TV games now, a higher percentage of kids are more mobile that during the CPF years. The bad news is that is a variable each cycle and those more blessed programs still have a big advantage of being able to pick from those that do value childhood favorites or where momma wants to go to a lot of games and distance matters and then fight for the more mobile ones... Bama is what Bama is in the eyes of the recruiting base... NOW, they can screw it up... maybe they can dig down and find a guy named Mike to replace Saban when the time comes.... But all those blessed guys need less budget, and can afford losses in there natural area... not simply state lines, AU is walking distance for a lot of schools in GA.... FSU has always been closer that GA to the very southern GA prospects. so those areas are in their base not GA. We are close enough to parts of GA to be in play as well... But we have to be trending the right way to take advantage. FL can typically miss on 30 4 and 5 star guys in state and still sign 25., especially when FSU and UM are not trending strong.. GA is close. LA is an odd dynamic for LSU... but portions of MS and TX are in their wheelhouse. Texas has plenty of guys for the instate schools to divide.

I think TN is a a second tier with AU and probably SC where national historical perspective gets them deep into living rooms in border states and in some instances kids nationally willing to travel to play in the SEC. UM, MSU, MIZ, ARK, and KY are in a tougher pool, and Vandy is what Vandy is....

Pruitt could sign 25 bigtimers this year, and still not change the dynamics and win totals next year... it is possible to salt in some 5 start talent as FR, but our OL will not be top tier next year even if we get the guys we want in this class... better yes, trending the right way, yes. fixed no... the fight is beginning... but can we sell playing time two years in a row for our next class? We have a lot to sell, none of our facilities are shabby... our LOYAL fan base is not selling like it used to... and for good reason. Read this board... I assure you decision makers with top targets will... Not a show stopper, but I would bet it is a factor in their Risk/reward calculator since I doubt they simply bury their heads.

We can close the talent gap, really hope that is evident when we complete this class.. The rich and successful have their issues to deal with as well... especially with all the grad transfer opportunities... They can lose depth after losing out on players who calculated these guys in their playing time calculator.... all is not lost, but it will not be easy...
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Butch had a good roster in 2015 & 2016 & 2017 but we ended up at 9 -4, 9 -4 & 4 - 8. Having Jimmy's & Joe's are good but you need to have competent coaches also and avoid major injuries on the roster.
 
#148
#148
GUNTERSVOL said:
It is a Jimmy's and Joe's issue... Bottom line the combination of national and NATURAL recruiting area will always give AL, LSU, TAM, FL, and GA an easier path to backfilling their needs year in and year out than the rest of the conference. Should we logically be able to match the decorated talent hauls each year? Unlikely... the real question is can we close the gap in recruiting with better evaluations and player development. The good news is that with all the TV games now, a higher percentage of kids are more mobile that during the CPF years. The bad news is that is a variable each cycle and those more blessed programs still have a big advantage of being able to pick from those that do value childhood favorites or where momma wants to go to a lot of games and distance matters and then fight for the more mobile ones... Bama is what Bama is in the eyes of the recruiting base... NOW, they can screw it up... maybe they can dig down and find a guy named Mike to replace Saban when the time comes.... But all those blessed guys need less budget, and can afford losses in there natural area... not simply state lines, AU is walking distance for a lot of schools in GA.... FSU has always been closer that GA to the very southern GA prospects. so those areas are in their base not GA. We are close enough to parts of GA to be in play as well... But we have to be trending the right way to take advantage. FL can typically miss on 30 4 and 5 star guys in state and still sign 25., especially when FSU and UM are not trending strong.. GA is close. LA is an odd dynamic for LSU... but portions of MS and TX are in their wheelhouse. Texas has plenty of guys for the instate schools to divide.

I think TN is a a second tier with AU and probably SC where national historical perspective gets them deep into living rooms in border states and in some instances kids nationally willing to travel to play in the SEC. UM, MSU, MIZ, ARK, and KY are in a tougher pool, and Vandy is what Vandy is....

Pruitt could sign 25 bigtimers this year, and still not change the dynamics and win totals next year... it is possible to salt in some 5 start talent as FR, but our OL will not be top tier next year even if we get the guys we want in this class... better yes, trending the right way, yes. fixed no... the fight is beginning... but can we sell playing time two years in a row for our next class? We have a lot to sell, none of our facilities are shabby... our LOYAL fan base is not selling like it used to... and for good reason. Read this board... I assure you decision makers with top targets will... Not a show stopper, but I would bet it is a factor in their Risk/reward calculator since I doubt they simply bury their heads.

We can close the talent gap, really hope that is evident when we complete this class.. The rich and successful have their issues to deal with as well... especially with all the grad transfer opportunities... They can lose depth after losing out on players who calculated these guys in their playing time calculator.... all is not lost, but it will not be easy...
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Vandy is what vandy is? So you think we can hopefully be competitive with them next year?
 
#149
#149
rjd970 said:
UT could be that I guess. Again, we play UGA and Bama every year and both are loaded. With the exception of maybe a AU or UF upset, Bama/UGA is your championship game going forward.

I think it would take UGA falling moreso than UT taking it. Definitely true with Bama, they are going nowhere as long as Saban is there. UT will get better, but 9 wins with the occasional 10 win season is the ceiling.

I also forgot to add that we basically have a built in loss to UF too. It just happens, for whatever reason. This 10-win season with occasional division championships isn’t happening unless 1-2 of the top programs falls off the map it gets sanctioned or whatever. Nothing in the conference seems to “cycles” anymore, at least not at the top.
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We just need to show steady improvement year in and year out. just like Ky. has done over the past 12 or so years. Ky. went from yearly losing seasons to occasionally making a bowl game. Then from occasion bowl game to annually making a bowl game. Then beating ranked teams. Then to where they are now, which is in the top #25 annually.

IF we made steady improvements and things fall the right way, we can be on top again. What do I mean by that?

Bama had NCAA restrictions placed on them. UGA had a horrible coach. LSU had a horrible coach. (Gerry DiNardo) (Mike Archer) & Florida had an off season and thus we won in 1998.

We need to be in position to move up, if/when other programs in the SEC stumble.
 
#150
#150
Devo182 said:
A bit fatalist there. What if Pruitt can simply bump up recruiting to a new level? If we could even recruit like Auburn or LSU (we are within reasonable grasp of them) and develop better than CBJ did, then we should have every opportunity to at least beat one of them here and there. Aub and LSU have been able to. He's already shown himself quite the recruiter, so let's see how it plays out.
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Yes I guess I am a bit fatalistic, just by disposition. Still, I think being the only SEC east team that plays bama every season is a significant competitive disadvantage for TN relative to its eastern division foes. Some day, the wheel will turn and perhaps it won’t be. But I am not sure I will live to see it. How’s that for fatalism?!!
 
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