Can anyone explain Pomeroy's ratings?

[Vercingetorix]

I think Pomeroy could be interesting, but I'm still not clear on his schtick. And BTW, Pomeroy apparently has calculated the likelihood of each ACC team winning the ACC Tourney. A lot of UNC fans even agree that 50% is way too high for them, considering how tough it is evidenced by the fact that they haven't won it in 10 years.

He gives UF a 50% chance against the field, too:

Qtrs Semis Finals Champs
1E Florida 100 83.3 67.6 50.7
4E Kentucky 71.5 45.8 31.1 13.9
1W MSU 100 42.3 23.0 7.5
3W Ark 81.2 46.6 21.0 7.0
3E Tenn 55.4 37.1 10.9 5.3
2E Vandy 100 49.0 18.7 5.1
5E Georgia 68.2 13.5 7.0 3.1
6W LSU 44.6 27.6 7.0 3.1
2W Miss 100 35.3 6.3 2.1
5W Alabama 28.5 11.9 4.8 1.3
4W Auburn 31.8 3.3 1.1 0.3
6E USC 18.8 4.4 0.7 0.1

(Here's the link to a better-formatted table. Scroll down a bit.)

 

[TennNC]

He gives UF a 50% chance against the field, too:

Qtrs Semis Finals Champs
1E Florida 100 83.3 67.6 50.7
4E Kentucky 71.5 45.8 31.1 13.9
1W MSU 100 42.3 23.0 7.5
3W Ark 81.2 46.6 21.0 7.0
3E Tenn 55.4 37.1 10.9 5.3
2E Vandy 100 49.0 18.7 5.1
5E Georgia 68.2 13.5 7.0 3.1
6W LSU 44.6 27.6 7.0 3.1
2W Miss 100 35.3 6.3 2.1
5W Alabama 28.5 11.9 4.8 1.3
4W Auburn 31.8 3.3 1.1 0.3
6E USC 18.8 4.4 0.7 0.1

(Here's the link to a better-formatted table. Scroll down a bit.)

Thanks for the link. Didn't know he'd done one for the SEC.

I don't disagree with Florida's 50% shot, b/c I think the SEC field isn't as tough for them as the ACC is for UNC.

What smells like poop is UT with barely a 1 in 20 shot at winning it all, when there are only 12 teams in the league, and when UT beat all but 2 teams this year (who happen to have a combined 2.5% of winning the tourney). How does that make sense?

And sorry for the foul language. I'll clean it up.

 

[Vercingetorix]

What smells like poop is UT with barely a 1 in 20 shot at winning it all, when there are only 12 teams in the league, and when UT beat all but 2 teams this year (who happen to have a combined 2.5% of winning the tourney). How does that make sense?

I was thinking about that. At first, that seemed like a slap in the face, but I'm not sure that it's THAT off. I am just going to make some figures up here, just for illustrative purposes. Let's say UT has a 70% chance to beat LSU tomorrow night and then a 70% chance to beat Ole Miss in the second round. That gives UT a 49% chance to play UF on Saturday. Let's be pessimistic and say that UT has only a 30% chance to win that game, since we'd be playing our third game in three days after two late nights, and our second game fifteen hours after the first. Now we're down to about a 15% chance that UT even gets to the final. If you give them a 50-50 shot at winning that game (against a team that's probably better rested), then you come up with a 7.5% chance to win it.

If you want to be more optimistic (and I do), then maybe you go with a 75% chance to win the first two games and a 50% chance to beat Florida and whoever else is in the final. That gives you a 14% chance for UT to win the whole thing.

It's interesting to think about, at least.

 

[TennNC]

If you want to be more optimistic ... That gives you a 14% chance for UT to win the whole thing.

It's interesting to think about, at least.

Good point. I guess the extra game cuts our chances down significantly. I didn't think about that.

 

[ckile]

Pomeroy ratings consider INPUTS (Fg%, % possessions ending in turnover,, things that determine game outputs) Sagarin considers OUTPUTS (scores of games played and opponents) and utilizes linear algebra to determine team strength. Pomeroy in essence, reconstructs games from the inside out and predicts team strength that way.