Busting a Myth: Prohibitive Favorites in 2016

#1
VFL-82-JP

VFL-82-JP

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#1
The phrase, "prohibitive favorite" is being thrown around more and more often in these boards to describe the college football world's expectations for the Vols in 2016 in the SEC East race.

We probably should bust that myth now.

We weren't.

Favorites, yes. Widely selected to win the division, sure. Prohibitive favorites, not even close.

Prohibitive favorite means a team that is "so likely to win as to discourage competition." To. discourage. competition. Let those three words sink in.

Alabama is a prohibitive favorite in the SEC these days (look at the sadly numerous minority of Vols fans willing to give up the TSIO...that is "discouraged competition"). The Lady Vols were the prohibitive favorite in the SEC during Pat's tenure (and nationwide until UConn joined our ladies at the summit of the sport). The Yankees were the prohibitive favorites in MLB from 1998 to 2006. Few other teams achieve such an extreme level of dominance that they earn the descriptor "prohibitive favorite."

Tennessee was not even close to "prohibitive favorite" status in 2016 in the East.

Don't take my word for it--look at what the sports writers were actually saying before the season started:

  • Saturday Down South said the SEC East race has been "hard to predict" in recent years, and went on to say "that may not change in 2016." They did say that we seemed "to be the popular choice," but added the caveat that we would have to "battle through a tough early schedule," with FL, UGa, A&M, and Bama "on successive Saturdays."
  • Bleacher Report said "the hype is real" and predicted we'd win the East, going 11-1 in the regular season. But that's not saying "prohibitive favorite." Look at these qualifier statements: "If Tennessee can...get over the psychological hurdle by finally beating Florida...the season sets up well for the Vols." "Difficult games at Georgia and Texas A&M also appear daunting...." "Dobbs has to show he can pass the ball vertically...." "The defense needs to take a step forward under new coordinator Bob Shoop." Closing with, "But man, they sure do look tantalizing on paper, throughout the depth chart and when they step out on the field. Now they just have to perform." Favorites to win the East? Yes. "Prohibitive" favorites? Far from it.
  • SEC Country called the 24 Sept Vols-Gators game "a de facto SEC East title game," and then referenced the hump we faced in the then-11-game losing streak.
I could go on, but I think the point is made.

We were the media darlings, yes. We were the trendy pick. But we were not a prohibitive favorite.

Here's hoping we become just that in the not too distant future. Go Vols!






References:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/way-early-sec-east-predictions-2016/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ecord-projections-for-every-sec-football-team

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/predicting-every-sec-teams-first-loss-of-2016
 
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#2
#2
No need to down play 120's expectations. If they weren't high to start the season they sure were after we beat Fl and Ga.

We'll be picked to win the east again, maybe we will win the east without being picked, 2017 would be fine.
 
#3
#3
Iam4utalways said:
No need to down play 120's expectations. If they weren't high to start the season they sure were after we beat Fl and Ga.

We'll be picked to win the east again, maybe we will win the east without being picked, 2017 would be fine.
Click to expand...

A couple of things, Iam4:

(1) At the same time as we were beating Florida last year, breaking the streak, and beating UGa with that Hail Mary at the end of the game, exciting us all greatly, we were also having to come from behind and win very close games against other teams that shouldn't have challenged us. And that was getting people a little nervous at the same time. So the excitement and nervousness were running hand in hand for many in 2016. Weird combo, but real.

If you mean that you think we were prohibitive favorites last year, then I simply disagree with you.

(2) Don't think many are going to pick us to win the East in 2017. ESPN (Aschoff) has already come on board saying it's a 2-horse race (UGa and FL). I expect others will say something similar. At best, we'll probably be included as one of three possibles.
 
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#5
#5
www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/al-com-2017-sec-east-predictions/

Al.com 2016 SEC East projected order
1. Tennessee (Finished ranked 2nd)
2. Georgia (3rd)
3. Florida (1st)
4. Missouri (7th)
5. South Carolina (5th)
6. Kentucky (4th)
7. Vanderbilt (6th)

Al.com 2017 SEC East projected order
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Kentucky
T-4. Tennessee
T-4. South Carolina
6. Vanderbilt
7. Missouri
 
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#6
#6
BigOrangeTrain said:
All we had to do was beat South Carolina and Vandy. We didnt. Thats it.
Click to expand...

BOT, that really has nothing to do with this conversation. Which is not at all about how things turned out, but about expectations before the season began.

But thanks for dropping by.
 
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#7
#7
surely, as long as some of us have been following Volunteer football, we don't fall for that "prohibitive favorite" malarky anyway...we know better...:)

GO VOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
#8
#8
How often do we win the east when we're not supposed to and how many times have we won it when we were favorites?
 
#9
#9
VFL-82-JP said:
A couple of things, Iam4:

(1) At the same time as we were beating Florida last year, breaking the streak, and beating UGa with that Hail Mary at the end of the game, exciting us all greatly, we were also having to come from behind and win very close games against other teams that shouldn't have challenged us. And that was getting people a little nervous at the same time. So the excitement and nervousness were running hand in hand for many in 2016. Weird combo, but real.

If you mean that you think we were prohibitive favorites last year, then I simply disagree with you.

(2) Don't think many are going to pick us to win the East in 2017. ESPN (Aschoff) has already come on board saying it's a 2-horse race (UGa and FL). I expect others will say something similar. At best, we'll probably be included as one of three possibles.
Click to expand...

We were favored to win the east to begin the season. After beating FL then Ga, at that point many thought it was a lock due to what was left on our schedule and FL's and GA's schedule.

As for this year anyone that picks TN will do so with zero regards for their reputation.
 
#10
#10
VFL-82-JP said:
BOT, that really has nothing to do with this conversation. Which is not at all about how things turned out, but about expectations before the season began.

But thanks for dropping by.
Click to expand...

BOT is just saying the prediction of us winning the East was prescient until the losses to South Carolina and Vandy.
 
#11
#11
We could have ever predicted that we would be Florida and Georgia but lose to Vandy and SC. It was a weird season.
 
#12
#12
This season will be no different than previuos ones in the East. It will be a three horse race between UGA, FLA, and TN. I guess Ky could be a dark horse but I will have to see it to believe it.
 
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#13
#13
Not sure what the point of the OP is....UT has sH*t the bed so many times in the past we should have expected what happened last season?
 
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#15
#15
So, you're saying that in order for UT to have been capable of winning the SECe in 2016, they needed to be the "prohibitive favorite" for it to have been possible?:unsure:
 
#16
#16
Enki_Amenra said:
That comment has a striking similarity to a lot of VN posters.
Click to expand...

Because a lot of the VN posters watch UT football. In recent years, we're habitual bed sh***ers. I still can't believe the end of the UGA game. That type of stuff never falls in our favor. The end of the A&M game, that's the type of stuff I'm used to lol
 
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#17
#17
Nope. I'm saying only what I said in the OP.

This is about how we collectively remember the expectations going into the 2016 season. It's not about how the season turned out.
 
#18
#18
My bad JP....guess I should've stuck with overwhelming favorite, odds on favorite or near-unanimous favorite. 😁
 
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#19
#19
The only two modern teams that I can think of that might have ever been called 'prohibitive favorites' are Alabama under Saban, and 90's Florida State under Bowden.
 
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#20
#20
BigOrangeTrain said:
All we had to do was beat South Carolina and Vandy. We didnt. Thats it.
Click to expand...

S O S. Is this the only phrase you know how to type? Yes we did lose to those two teams; one when our QB played his worst game since his freshman year and one where we were playing a first year defensive end at tackle and the other defensive tackle was a second team defensive end who weighted 59 pounds. I think everyone knows you dislike Tennessee football. You act as if you were the caboose of the Tennessee train which was cut loose because it became useless and was a burden to the purpose of the train. I bet you used to be a Dobyns Bennett fan until they could no longer recruit high school athletes by getting their parents a job in Kingsport.
 
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#24
#24
dduncan4163 said:
This season will be no different than previuos ones in the East. It will be a three horse race between UGA, FLA, and TN. I guess Ky could be a dark horse but I will have to see it to believe it.
Click to expand...

Wildcats have some legitimate talent this year. Question is will they play like it? Vols better not be napping on them.
 
#25
#25
VFL-82-JP said:
The phrase, "prohibitive favorite" is being thrown around more and more often in these boards to describe the college football world's expectations for the Vols in 2016 in the SEC East race.

We probably should bust that myth now.

We weren't.

Favorites, yes. Widely selected to win the division, sure. Prohibitive favorites, not even close.

Prohibitive favorite means a team that is "so likely to win as to discourage competition." To. discourage. competition. Let those three words sink in.

Alabama is a prohibitive favorite in the SEC these days (look at the sadly numerous minority of Vols fans willing to give up the TSIO...that is "discouraged competition"). The Lady Vols were the prohibitive favorite in the SEC during Pat's tenure (and nationwide until UConn joined our ladies at the summit of the sport). The Yankees were the prohibitive favorites in MLB from 1998 to 2006. Few other teams achieve such an extreme level of dominance that they earn the descriptor "prohibitive favorite."

Tennessee was not even close to "prohibitive favorite" status in 2016 in the East.

Don't take my word for it--look at what the sports writers were actually saying before the season started:

  • Saturday Down South said the SEC East race has been "hard to predict" in recent years, and went on to say "that may not change in 2016." They did say that we seemed "to be the popular choice," but added the caveat that we would have to "battle through a tough early schedule," with FL, UGa, A&M, and Bama "on successive Saturdays."
  • Bleacher Report said "the hype is real" and predicted we'd win the East, going 11-1 in the regular season. But that's not saying "prohibitive favorite." Look at these qualifier statements: "If Tennessee can...get over the psychological hurdle by finally beating Florida...the season sets up well for the Vols." "Difficult games at Georgia and Texas A&M also appear daunting...." "Dobbs has to show he can pass the ball vertically...." "The defense needs to take a step forward under new coordinator Bob Shoop." Closing with, "But man, they sure do look tantalizing on paper, throughout the depth chart and when they step out on the field. Now they just have to perform." Favorites to win the East? Yes. "Prohibitive" favorites? Far from it.
  • SEC Country called the 24 Sept Vols-Gators game "a de facto SEC East title game," and then referenced the hump we faced in the then-11-game losing streak.
I could go on, but I think the point is made.

We were the media darlings, yes. We were the trendy pick. But we were not a prohibitive favorite.

Here's hoping we become just that in the not too distant future. Go Vols!






References:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/way-early-sec-east-predictions-2016/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ecord-projections-for-every-sec-football-team

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/predicting-every-sec-teams-first-loss-of-2016
Click to expand...

It's easy to bust a mythological prediction after the myth is proven false. Where were you this time last year?
 
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