BTO’s First 4 Report/Thoughts/Recap

#1

bleedingTNorange

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#1
Sorry for no individual postgame reports to this point, I hope for that to change starting with tonight’s game, depending on the time it will either be late tonight or sometime tomorrow I get it posted


1. You’ve got the start to the year we all obviously hoped for, not much in the way of major tests and clearly 3-1 should’ve been the floor, but an early game at Louisville in which you were slight dogs should look good on the resume come March, and considering the fashion in which it was done made it even more impressive.

2. We’ve all become accustomed to Tennessee having a Top 5 defense under Barnes and offense lagging behind and what has been a hot topic come tournament time. Heading into this year losing Knecht many weren’t sure what to expect, and in fairness it’s a very small sample size to this point, but Tennessee has climbed the offensive rankings on KenPom each time out and now is up to #18 nationally, not sure on in season rankings but that would be the highest number since the 2019-2019 team with Bone/Schofiedl/Williams etc. After the Indiana exhibition I made the claim I thought this team would likely shoot a ton of 3’s and their fate would likely depend on that, well that has most certainly not been the case lol. Averaging only 19.3 attempts per game from deep which ranks 318th nationally, however shooting a blistering 41.6% from deep which is good for 24th nationally. Even better than that though is the 67.1% from 2 they are shooting which is good for 6th nationally, huge reason for this is the efficiency from Milicic 80% and Okpara 63% from 2, those are absurd numbers from your bigs. Ziegler is also a huge part, a guy who’s struggled from 2 is finishing very well so far this year from 2, also at 63% from 2 so far on the year. None of these are likely sustainable, however something Tennessee is doing a fantastic job of is taking the right 2’s, they’ve attempted about 5 shots outside the paint and inside the 3pt line, meaning everything is pretty much at the rim or a 3pt line, that’s peak efficiency formula.

3. So what about the defense…well it too has probably been a bit better than expected to start the year, it ranks #4 nationally on KenPom and considering the number of new faces it feels like that has to be a win. We obviously knew about Mashack and Ziegler, but Chaz and Igor have both been very good early as defenders, and both Okpara and Phillips have done a very good job early this season as well, Okpara bringing what many expected as a big time shot blocker, but also a little more physical than what we had been getting from Aidoo, so far it seems like he’s provided exactly what the staff was hoping for.

4. Individually could say a lot about a lot of guys, but I’ll try not to…Ziegler has had a great start to the year and outside of his outlier turnover game again Louisville he’s playing at an elite level to start the year, he’s shooting the ball incredibly well and if he continues his play he’ll find himself on an All-American list at seasons end. Chaz has brought exactly what you hoped for imo, he’s a knockdown 3pt shooter and has shown a bit of moxy and ability to get a bucket that we weren’t really sure was there. Igor had a slow start to the season but has really come on of late, would like to see him let the 3 fly more and not hesitate when open, but he’s been great, his footwork in the paint is elite and his length combined with that allows him to finish with high efficiency around the rim. He kind of feels like one of those guys that maybe doesn’t realize just how productive he can be, feels like he could mess around and find himself getting drafted after this year imo.

5. Can’t all be sunshine and rainbows so what’s the bad, well the obvious would be injuries/depth. This was a roster that already only had 11 scholarship players, most expected Boswell the freshman to redshirt and take a backseat, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case. You haven’t seen transfer Darlinstone Dubar to this point and now you’ve got Cameron Carr & JP Estrella both expected to miss significant time, so for those keeping track that’s down to really 7 solid constant scholarship players. Now the silver lining might be that if you can avoid further injuries those 7 are arguably your top 7, and there’s a lot of new faces in that group, so those 7 getting as many minutes together as possible might not be a horrible thing, but obviously it’s not great having no depth and foul trouble would be a concern. Boswell continuing to develop will be something to monitor although we all know zeigler can give 35+mpg and realistically there’s no reason he shouldn’t in competitive games, the question mark will be Dubar and what he can bring, I would assume he’ll get opportunities in the Bahamas starting tonight so we should get a glimpse soon enough.

6. So we sit at 4-0 with 27 to go lol, so what’s the goal, what’s realistic, where do things stand. Barttorvik has us projected at 23-7 without game 2 of Bahamas figured into that, depending on the opponent gotta think odds of that game are around 50/50 so it’s fair to say projections today would be like 23.5-7.5, this is as of today one of the softer OOC of Barnes tenure, things can obviously change but tomorrows game against Baylor/St. John’s very well might be the only ranked OOC game we play, which obviously is an anomaly for a Barnes team. With that said with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma this is likely the toughest the SEC has ever been so that has to be factored into the equation. 23-8/24-7 based on previous years should have Tennessee firmly in the 2 seed discussion with an outside shot of a 1/3 seed, which once again is all you can ask for and hope for as a Tennessee fan for March. But that’s a long ways away, so let’s enjoy some Tennessee Basketball in the meantime.



GBO!!!
 
#4
#4
I usually do start paying attention to BB until Dec/Jan ((it’s harder to see those games here in Germany anyway), but it’s good to hear CRB has our program where we’d like it. Hard to imagine us not dropping off a bit after having a generational talent like Knecht.
Thanks for the early season analysis!
 
#5
#5
Sorry for no individual postgame reports to this point, I hope for that to change starting with tonight’s game, depending on the time it will either be late tonight or sometime tomorrow I get it posted


1. You’ve got the start to the year we all obviously hoped for, not much in the way of major tests and clearly 3-1 should’ve been the floor, but an early game at Louisville in which you were slight dogs should look good on the resume come March, and considering the fashion in which it was done made it even more impressive.

2. We’ve all become accustomed to Tennessee having a Top 5 defense under Barnes and offense lagging behind and what has been a hot topic come tournament time. Heading into this year losing Knecht many weren’t sure what to expect, and in fairness it’s a very small sample size to this point, but Tennessee has climbed the offensive rankings on KenPom each time out and now is up to #18 nationally, not sure on in season rankings but that would be the highest number since the 2019-2019 team with Bone/Schofiedl/Williams etc. After the Indiana exhibition I made the claim I thought this team would likely shoot a ton of 3’s and their fate would likely depend on that, well that has most certainly not been the case lol. Averaging only 19.3 attempts per game from deep which ranks 318th nationally, however shooting a blistering 41.6% from deep which is good for 24th nationally. Even better than that though is the 67.1% from 2 they are shooting which is good for 6th nationally, huge reason for this is the efficiency from Milicic 80% and Okpara 63% from 2, those are absurd numbers from your bigs. Ziegler is also a huge part, a guy who’s struggled from 2 is finishing very well so far this year from 2, also at 63% from 2 so far on the year. None of these are likely sustainable, however something Tennessee is doing a fantastic job of is taking the right 2’s, they’ve attempted about 5 shots outside the paint and inside the 3pt line, meaning everything is pretty much at the rim or a 3pt line, that’s peak efficiency formula.

3. So what about the defense…well it too has probably been a bit better than expected to start the year, it ranks #4 nationally on KenPom and considering the number of new faces it feels like that has to be a win. We obviously knew about Mashack and Ziegler, but Chaz and Igor have both been very good early as defenders, and both Okpara and Phillips have done a very good job early this season as well, Okpara bringing what many expected as a big time shot blocker, but also a little more physical than what we had been getting from Aidoo, so far it seems like he’s provided exactly what the staff was hoping for.

4. Individually could say a lot about a lot of guys, but I’ll try not to…Ziegler has had a great start to the year and outside of his outlier turnover game again Louisville he’s playing at an elite level to start the year, he’s shooting the ball incredibly well and if he continues his play he’ll find himself on an All-American list at seasons end. Chaz has brought exactly what you hoped for imo, he’s a knockdown 3pt shooter and has shown a bit of moxy and ability to get a bucket that we weren’t really sure was there. Igor had a slow start to the season but has really come on of late, would like to see him let the 3 fly more and not hesitate when open, but he’s been great, his footwork in the paint is elite and his length combined with that allows him to finish with high efficiency around the rim. He kind of feels like one of those guys that maybe doesn’t realize just how productive he can be, feels like he could mess around and find himself getting drafted after this year imo.

5. Can’t all be sunshine and rainbows so what’s the bad, well the obvious would be injuries/depth. This was a roster that already only had 11 scholarship players, most expected Boswell the freshman to redshirt and take a backseat, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case. You haven’t seen transfer Darlinstone Dubar to this point and now you’ve got Cameron Carr & JP Estrella both expected to miss significant time, so for those keeping track that’s down to really 7 solid constant scholarship players. Now the silver lining might be that if you can avoid further injuries those 7 are arguably your top 7, and there’s a lot of new faces in that group, so those 7 getting as many minutes together as possible might not be a horrible thing, but obviously it’s not great having no depth and foul trouble would be a concern. Boswell continuing to develop will be something to monitor although we all know zeigler can give 35+mpg and realistically there’s no reason he shouldn’t in competitive games, the question mark will be Dubar and what he can bring, I would assume he’ll get opportunities in the Bahamas starting tonight so we should get a glimpse soon enough.

6. So we sit at 4-0 with 27 to go lol, so what’s the goal, what’s realistic, where do things stand. Barttorvik has us projected at 23-7 without game 2 of Bahamas figured into that, depending on the opponent gotta think odds of that game are around 50/50 so it’s fair to say projections today would be like 23.5-7.5, this is as of today one of the softer OOC of Barnes tenure, things can obviously change but tomorrows game against Baylor/St. John’s very well might be the only ranked OOC game we play, which obviously is an anomaly for a Barnes team. With that said with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma this is likely the toughest the SEC has ever been so that has to be factored into the equation. 23-8/24-7 based on previous years should have Tennessee firmly in the 2 seed discussion with an outside shot of a 1/3 seed, which once again is all you can ask for and hope for as a Tennessee fan for March. But that’s a long ways away, so let’s enjoy some Tennessee Basketball in the meantime.



GBO!!!
Milicic is a Knecht clone in that he can score at all 3 levels.

Dubar and Phillips have to take a big step forward with Carr and Estrella missing extended amounts of time.

The Baylor game tomorrow night will be a test of stopping an elite offense that likes to push the pace and shoot a lot of threes.

Our depth will be tested in the Baylor game.

Nice write up.
 
#6
#6
Milicic is a Knecht clone in that he can score at all 3 levels.

Dubar and Phillips have to take a big step forward with Carr and Estrella missing extended amounts of time.

The Baylor game tomorrow night will be a test of stopping an elite offense that likes to push the pace and shoot a lot of threes.

Our depth will be tested in the Baylor game.

Nice write up.
Baylor playing extra 10 minutes could make some difference, also one their top
Players is battling a hamstring issue
 
#7
#7
As usual, at this early point of the season, I experience those wild swings of confidence/no confidence. You watch some stretches and think we’ll be middle of the pack, then a stretch will come, and I think we’re elite. I suspect by January it will become more clear. But, I do see great promise in Lanier and Milicic. And BTO, thanks for all the effort in the write ups. I look forward to them. I hope you continue this year.
 
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#10
#10
Phillips had a poor game in limited minutes. Zeigler gave a ton of effort but his history has been several really poor shooting performances each year, and last night was one of those. I re-watched stretches from the game, and Dubar (AKA Dunbar) absolutely hustles his butt off consistently. Barnes has got to love that.

The sum of the parts for this team just might exceed the sum for last year’s team. I say that cautiously, but we’re hard to guard, and good shooting covers any weakness we might have.
 
#12
#12
Lots of opposing fans thinking we are going to be an easy win after the game last night. Mainly UK fans. I find that hilarious, we’ve been winning despite not putting it all together. Once everything clicks this team may be better and deeper than last seasons
 
#13
#13
Lots of opposing fans thinking we are going to be an easy win after the game last night. Mainly UK fans. I find that hilarious, we’ve been winning despite not putting it all together. Once everything clicks this team may be better and deeper than last seasons
UK fans are riding high right now, but will soon be brought back down to earth. They've not even played a true road game yet. They beat a Duke team that might not even be good. Duke has a legit chance at losing the next 3 out of 4 games... @ Arizona, Kansas, and Auburn.
 
#14
#14
UK fans are riding high right now, but will soon be brought back down to earth. They've not even played a true road game yet. They beat a Duke team that might not even be good. Duke has a legit chance at losing the next 3 out of 4 games... @ Arizona, Kansas, and Auburn.
Duke will be scary later in the year
 
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#15
#15
Lots of opposing fans thinking we are going to be an easy win after the game last night. Mainly UK fans. I find that hilarious, we’ve been winning despite not putting it all together. Once everything clicks this team may be better and deeper than last seasons
Anyone who thinks a team sitting a fifth in KenPom will be an "easy win" is a moron. Of course, Kentucky fans are genetically incompatible with objectivity as it relates to any Tennessee sports team.
 
#16
#16
After watching last night's game, two observations -
concern for ZZ's offensive woes
very optimistic from watching Dubar - he has amazing potential, capable of All-SEC next year

Overall, happy with everyone's performance, especially Milicic and Gainey

Good writeup as usual BTO
 
#17
#17
After watching last night's game, two observations -
concern for ZZ's offensive woes
very optimistic from watching Dubar - he has amazing potential, capable of All-SEC next year

Overall, happy with everyone's performance, especially Milicic and Gainey

Good writeup as usual BTO
Dubar is a senior, so hopefully he fast-tracks that potential. 😀

Gainey was very inefficient (1-6 shooting), but contributed in a lot of other areas like defense and rebounding (he had 7).

ZZ also very inefficient (1-9 shooting) but same thing where he contributed elsewhere. 6 assts, 4 rebs, 2 stls, 1 blk.

Mashack is kind of an unsung hero from the UVA game. 7 pts on 3-6 shooting, 5 rebs, 4 stls, 2 blks, 1 asst, 0 TOs, and he ate up anyone he guarded while committing only 1 foul.
 
#18
#18
Rats!!

Didn't know he was a senior. Dubar is a special player, I now see why there was so much concern over
his absence!

My concern over ZZ is his offensive woes have shown up 2 games out of 5. Hopefully that is aberration.

My comment on Gainey is more of overall he has been a pleasant improvement for the year thus far.
 
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#19
#19
I'm a little confused that people here are not raving about Lanier. Maybe folks are simply not bothering to state the obvious, but he's looking to me like a first team all SEC type player. In fact, I could absolutely see him challenging for the league scoring title. Such a quick release on his shot, plus he can get in the lane and elevate on his jump shot, looking almost unstoppable at times. I, for one, am stoked about this young man's potential.
 
#20
#20
I'm a little confused that people here are not raving about Lanier. Maybe folks are simply not bothering to state the obvious, but he's looking to me like a first team all SEC type player. In fact, I could absolutely see him challenging for the league scoring title. Such a quick release on his shot, plus he can get in the lane and elevate on his jump shot, looking almost unstoppable at times. I, for one, am stoked about this young man's potential.
I think high expectations for Lanier were already baked in around here. Unlike Igor, for example..he's been the biggest surprise of the portal group imo. And now the Dubar watch is full go....exciting days ahead.
 
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#21
#21
I'm a little confused that people here are not raving about Lanier. Maybe folks are simply not bothering to state the obvious, but he's looking to me like a first team all SEC type player. In fact, I could absolutely see him challenging for the league scoring title. Such a quick release on his shot, plus he can get in the lane and elevate on his jump shot, looking almost unstoppable at times. I, for one, am stoked about this young man's potential.
I won't entirely dismiss that he could challenge for the scoring title, but he'd likely have to have a Chris Lofton like shooting season from 3 because he hasn't, thusfar, been much of a scorer from elsewhere (worst 2-pt% on the team, but best 3-pt%).
 
#22
#22
I think high expectations for Lanier were already baked in around here. Unlike Igor, for example..he's been the biggest surprise of the portal group imo. And now the Dubar watch is full go....exciting days ahead.
I’ll admit to being a little skeptical going for nearly zero production the yr before last to what he did last year. But he’s just got a scorer’s mentality it appears to me so far. Not a great elevator but transitioned smoothly into that peak jump for those mid range. Know CRB loves that.
He’s played really well so far and more important plays w a lot of confidence so far. So does Igor… they may have been ranked 14th best portal adds but the fit makes them top 5. IMO
 
#23
#23
I won't entirely dismiss that he could challenge for the scoring title, but he'd likely have to have a Chris Lofton like shooting season from 3 because he hasn't, thusfar, been much of a scorer from elsewhere (worst 2-pt% on the team, but best 3-pt%).
I'm very surprised by that stat and definitely don't expect it to continue. While being primarily a 3-point specialist, I believe he can score in bunches from all three levels. I guess we shall see.
 
#25
#25
Lots of opposing fans thinking we are going to be an easy win after the game last night. Mainly UK fans. I find that hilarious, we’ve been winning despite not putting it all together. Once everything clicks this team may be better and deeper than last seasons
Barns has them just where he wants them.
 
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