Big injury news coming from Indiana....

#76

Woodlawn VOL

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#76
Everybody has injuries this time of year they are no excuse for anyone. It's time to go out and play some good Tennessee football and get the victory. The time for talking is over, it's time for us to show the Hoosiers and the country we are better. GBO!!!!!
 
#79

wmcovol

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#79
Yes, it means Vegas "expects" us to win by about 3 points.
No, it means Vegas expects the public money will be split evenly between Tenn & Indiana if Tenn is giving Indy 3 pts.

If a boat load of money comes in on Indy, the line will change to less than 3 pts or maybe even. Why would Vegas change the line simply due to money if they “think Tenn will win by 3”?

Vegas don’t predict games. They manage money.
 
#80

Ten_Titans

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#80
No, it means Vegas expects the public money will be split evenly between Tenn & Indiana if Tenn is giving Indy 3 pts.

If a boat load of money comes in on Indy, the line will change to less than 3 pts or maybe even. Why would Vegas change the line simply due to money if they “think Tenn will win by 3”?

Vegas don’t predict games. They manage money.
I knew somebody was going to be "that guy", hence the quotes around the word "expects".

Saying Vegas expects UT to win by about 3, and they expect the money to be evenly split on a line of -3 are two ways of saying the same thing.
 
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#83

wmcovol

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#83
I knew somebody was going to be "that guy", hence the quotes around the word "expects".

Saying Vegas expects UT to win by about 3, and they expect the money to be evenly split on a line of -3 are two ways of saying the same thing.
No, the line has nothing to do with their expectation of the final score. Why you even go there to begin with? Again, if that were the case, why do they change the line with money flows?
 
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#89

Russdaddy2027

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#89
you forgot one important one

Penix fires one deep to the TE!!
Penix overshot his intended target
Penix plowed up the middle then reversed direction
The pocket presence of Penix is remarkable
Not to overshadow the pocket presents of Penix
Penix came up short
Penix was manhandled by a host of Vols
 
#92

Sarms58

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#92
Bold Prediction. JG's senior Season will mirror Dobbs'
Being quite serious because as a passer so far JG has put up better numbers than Dobbs each year as a passer. JG will never bee Doobs on the ground but his is that much better as a passer that it will even out. Sophomore and Junior year they both got the same hate from fans. Perception for Dobbs started turning around after a Jan 2 drubbing of Iowa in the Taxslayer bowl.
would love for him to have a great game tonight and a great season next year...
 
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#93

Ten_Titans

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#93
No, the line has nothing to do with their expectation of the final score. Why you even go there to begin with? Again, if that were the case, why do they change the line with money flows?
It was an informal definition.. That's what I'm trying to tell you with the quotes...

The line obviously moves with the money, but the initial spread is absolutely the expectation of the final score.

Statistically speaking, the money will come in evenly distributed around the perceived expected value for the result of the game.

In that sense, coming up with the expected value for the point differential and predicting the scores point differential are the same thing. That doesn't include bias or anything like that, but like I said, it's an informal definition.

Saying the spread is unrelated from the sport book's prediction of the result is confusing and disingenuous... And is just semantics when explaining how betting lines operate. They aren't the same... They are just virtually the same.
 
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#95

DoyleMcOrange

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#95
I don't know why people say this. I don't care at all if they are at full strength..
Yep. We're not at 'full strength'. No one is by the end of the season, really. It's one of those things that folks say to sound....i dunno, brave? Something.

It's a better measuring stick to play a team with their best players. Who cares to beat up on scrubs? Will be fun to watch for Vols though
Pfft. We haven't been at full strength for nearly a decade. We've had so many injuries it's not even funny. I didn't hear the opposing teams talking about how it doesn't really count as we weren't at 'full strength'.
 
#96

PulaskiVolFan

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#96
No, it means Vegas expects the public money will be split evenly between Tenn & Indiana if Tenn is giving Indy 3 pts.

If a boat load of money comes in on Indy, the line will change to less than 3 pts or maybe even. Why would Vegas change the line simply due to money if they “think Tenn will win by 3”?

Vegas don’t predict games. They manage money.
Vegas ABSOLUTELY and without a doubt does predict games. If you think that they don't put forth every single effort to predict the outcome of games and they just base the line on what they think people will bet that's the exact opposite of what they do. They have the best game predictors in the world working for them and setting lines.
 

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