Big East Bubble Teams

[hatvol96]

I think we can now safely place Georgetown in the NIT field. Cincinnati gets a shot at vastly improving their chances at home against West Virginia Thursday night. Providence gets a chance to at least place themselves back into the discussion against Pitt tomorrow night. Notre Dame still has a load of work to do.

 

[notverycrucial]

I can't remember the last time I saw a team that was so highly ranked (8th?) completely flameout and not even make the tourney. I remember a Louisville team that was pretty highly ranked (#2?) to start the '87 season after winning it all the year before, but that was a different situation. This Gtown fall has been epic.

 

[notverycrucial]

I can't remember the last time I saw a team that was so highly ranked (8th?) completely flameout and not even make the tourney. I remember a Louisville team that was pretty highly ranked (#2?) to start the '87 season after winning it all the year before, but that was a different situation. This Gtown fall has been epic.

nvm, i just thought of another one.

1994-95 Duke Blue Devils

 

[getyopopcornready]

The Friars failed miserably in their 4 game stretch that would have def put them in the tourney..

hat who do u think takes the championship this year? UCONN and Louisville don't seem to have that reliable scorer that past championship teams have had and I really cant picture either of them winning it all

I know UNC would be the other obvious choice but at the same time I believe UCONN and Louisville would destroy them..

I really dont see any team that stands out this year that can win the title but I cant help but think that some surprise team will take it this year

 

[lidderer]

Weird, I could have sworn all year long broadcasters and journalists and fans were talking about how this was maybe the best conference in ages, almost sure to send half of its league to the tourney, and likely even an unheard-of 10 teams.

Now it's looking like what? 7 teams? And the Pac is gonna send half, the ACC half, the sec might even send half(doubtful), the big 10 half, etc.

Seems like the BE has been a tad overvalued.

Go Mountaineers

 

[emainvol]

The Friars failed miserably in their 4 game stretch that would have def put them in the tourney..

hat who do u think takes the championship this year? UCONN and Louisville don't seem to have that reliable scorer that past championship teams have had and I really cant picture either of them winning it all

I know UNC would be the other obvious choice but at the same time I believe UCONN and Louisville would destroy them..

I really dont see any team that stands out this year that can win the title but I cant help but think that some surprise team will take it this year

Pitt could make a run. Defensively, they are a championship basketball team. Offensively, they are going to need someone to step it up big time in the tourney.

 

[Bassmanbruno]

Weird, I could have sworn all year long broadcasters and journalists and fans were talking about how this was maybe the best conference in ages, almost sure to send half of its league to the tourney, and likely even an unheard-of 10 teams.

Now it's looking like what? 7 teams? And the Pac is gonna send half, the ACC half, the sec might even send half(doubtful), the big 10 half, etc.

Seems like the BE has been a tad overvalued.

Go Mountaineers

Sure - but with that logic then the SEC in football is pretty overrated year in and year out as well.

 

[lidderer]

There truly is no clear favorite this season, and hardly even a good top 4 that you could say for sure of: "one of these teams will win it all".

Conn. kind of stands out, but if they meet a lower ranked team that is excellent and holding onto the ball(think: Gonzaga; Wisconsin) they could(<emphasis) be in a lot of trouble. That said, the '06 Gators did fine with the same sort of problem.

Pitt is almost the opposite, where both losses showed a tendency to give the ball up at a kentucky-like rate. Suit them up in a 3rd round game with missouri, ucla, or clemson, and some interesting things might(<emphasis) occur.

Really, this year seems more up for grabs than any in recent memory. I still wouldn't be totally bowled over if west virgina or missouri won. It's not likely, but it's not as unlikely as it might have been in any other year with teams like that.

 

[lidderer]

Sure - but with that logic then the SEC in football is pretty overrated year in and year out as well.

I see what you're saying, but the obvious differences here shouldn't be overlooked.

1) The formats are hugely different, and you have more than like 2 opportunities to play good OOC games.

2) Wins are contextualized in bball way more than in football, as in a 3-loss football team is basically out of the argument vs a 1-loss big conference team, whereas a 7-loss conference team in bball can still get a higher seed than a 4-loss big conference team.

3) I'm not entirely sure that our SEC isn't a tad bit overrated in football each year

4) It's not as though the mid-level teams are just suffering because the top teams are so good. Providence lost to baylor and northeastern; Syracuse to cleveland state; Seton to IUPUI and James Madison; the list goes on.

There is top-level talent 1-through-5, and that's great and all, but the law of numbers would indicate that this tends to be the case when you have 16 teams in a big conference pool. It's less than a 3rd, which is like asking of the PAC or ACC to supply 3 good teams, which is basically what they've done as well.

I'm more just pointing out how silly ESPN and the like are for trying to make too big a deal out of something that really isn't so special after all.

 

[emainvol]

4) It's not as though the mid-level teams are just suffering because the top teams are so good. Providence lost to baylor and northeastern; Syracuse to cleveland state; Seton to IUPUI and James Madison; the list goes on.

The only glaringly bad losses there are Seton Hall's. Northeastern, Baylor and Cleveland State are all top 100 RPI teams.

 

[lidderer]

The only glaringly bad losses there are Seton Hall's. Northeastern, Baylor and Cleveland State are all top 100 RPI teams.

you say top 100 RPI like that means something really significant. Let's list some other top 100 rpi teams that are garbage and would be bad to lose to:

binghamton!
Bradley!
Wyoming!
Evansville!
Weber state!
Northern Iowa!
Hofstra!

etc.

Even if you want to view them as worthy losses, it's not the kind of company a team should be in if they're being bandied about as an integral part in the universe's greatest conference of all time.

 

[emainvol]

you say top 100 RPI like that means something really significant. Let's list some other top 100 rpi teams that are garbage and would be bad to lose to:

binghamton!
Bradley!
Wyoming!
Evansville!
Weber state!
Northern Iowa!
Hofstra!

etc.

Even if you want to view them as worthy losses, it's not the kind of company a team should be in if they're being bandied about as an integral part in the universe's greatest conference of all time.

Seton Hall isn't an integral part. Syracuse is in so it doesn't matter who they lost to. Providence has a decent shot at getting in and has the best losses of the bunch.

This year's Big East isn't the best conference ever, but it is easily the best conference we have seen in more than a decade.

 

[lidderer]

Seton Hall isn't an integral part. Syracuse is in so it doesn't matter who they lost to. Providence has a decent shot at getting in and has the best losses of the bunch.

This year's Big East isn't the best conference ever, but it is easily the best conference we have seen in more than a decade.

Every team is 'integral' except i suppose you could dismiss the bottom 3rd of each league, as things tend to work that way.

I'd hardly say it's 'easily' the best conference ever. 2007's and 2005's and 2004's ACC come to mind, and that's just one conference over the past 5 years. A solid case could be made for any of those over this year's big east, and with 5 and 4 and 7 less teams to wit.

Great, so Pitt and Uconn are stellar and lousville is showing some signs of life(though recent losses to ND and earlier slumps at Wky. aren't the stuff of dreams), and marquette's last 7 wins in 9 games have been against depaul, st johns, notre dame, georgetown and the apparently non-integral seton hall. There's a loss to mighty south florida somewhere in there too.

That measures at, what?, 2 great teams, 1 near-great team, and a decent 2 trailing.

UNC, Duke. Wake. Clemson, Florida State.

The distant is not so great as they'd like us to believe.

 

[emainvol]

Every team is 'integral' except i suppose you could dismiss the bottom 3rd of each league, as things tend to work that way.

I'd hardly say it's 'easily' the best conference ever. 2007's and 2005's and 2004's ACC come to mind, and that's just one conference over the past 5 years. A solid case could be made for any of those over this year's big east, and with 5 and 4 and 7 less teams to wit.

Great, so Pitt and Uconn are stellar and lousville is showing some signs of life(though recent losses to ND and earlier slumps at Wky. aren't the stuff of dreams), and marquette's last 7 wins in 9 games have been against depaul, st johns, notre dame, georgetown and the apparently non-integral seton hall. There's a loss to mighty south florida somewhere in there too.

That measures at, what?, 2 great teams, 1 near-great team, and a decent 2 trailing.

UNC, Duke. Wake. Clemson, Florida State.

The distant is not so great as they'd like us to believe.

On a neutral floor, the entire top half or so of the Big East would beat Clemson and Florida St. more often than not. Wake would have a hard time hanging with the top 5 or so. Duke would be in much the same boat as Wake. UNC is probably the only team in the ACC that could hang in the Big East this year, and they would still probably lose 4 conference games

 

[lidderer]

On a neutral floor, the entire top half or so of the Big East would beat Clemson and Florida St. more often than not. Wake would have a hard time hanging with the top 5 or so. Duke would be in much the same boat as Wake. UNC is probably the only team in the ACC that could hang in the Big East this year, and they would still probably lose 4 conference games

Well see now that's just pure conjecture. I mean I could say "On a neutral floor, the entire top half or so of the ACC would beat Marquette and Louisville more often than not". Saying so doesn't make it so, and though we're both entitled to such opinions, treating them as any kind of successful type argument isn't really wise.

Marquette got killed by freakin UT on a neutral court, and I certainly don't see UT as being a top 5 ACC team. Louisville lost to Minnesota--MINNESOTA--on a neutral court too, so let's not be so quick to start talking about how great these top teams are on neutral courts.

None of them played many neutral court games, but here's those results for the top 5(wins unless otherwise stated):

NC: Michigan State
Duke: Xavier
FSU: Cal, Cincy
Wake: Baylor, UTEP
Clemson: N/A

UConn: wisconsin
Louisville: LOSSES to W. Ky and Minny
Pitt: Wash state
Marquette: LOSSES to Dayton, UT
Nova: LOSS to Texas

I mean...

 

[emainvol]

Well see now that's just pure conjecture. I mean I could say "On a neutral floor, the entire top half or so of the ACC would beat Marquette and Louisville more often than not". Saying so doesn't make it so, and though we're both entitled to such opinions, treating them as any kind of successful type argument isn't really wise.

Marquette got killed by freakin UT on a neutral court, and I certainly don't see UT as being a top 5 ACC team. Louisville lost to Minnesota--MINNESOTA--on a neutral court too, so let's not be so quick to start talking about how great these top teams are on neutral courts.

None of them played many neutral court games, but here's those results for the top 5(wins unless otherwise stated):

NC: Michigan State
Duke: Xavier
FSU: Cal, Cincy
Wake: Baylor, UTEP
Clemson: N/A

UConn: wisconsin
Louisville: LOSSES to W. Ky and Minny
Pitt: Wash state
Marquette: LOSSES to Dayton, UT
Nova: LOSS to Texas

I mean...

I don't recall stating it as some kind of be all, end all argument. Through the beauty of internet archiving, I can see that I said no such thing.

That said, I have the utmost confidence that Clemson and Florida St. couldn't hang with any of the top 5 Big East teams, and stand a good chance of getting beat by any tournament worthy BE squad. Hopefully, we'll see in March.

 

[lidderer]

I don't recall stating it as some kind of be all, end all argument. Through the beauty of internet archiving, I can see that I said no such thing.

That said, I have the utmost confidence that Clemson and Florida St. couldn't hang with any of the top 5 Big East teams, and stand a good chance of getting beat by any tournament worthy BE squad. Hopefully, we'll see in March.

My point was simply that your response was entirely opinion, and through the beauty of internet archiving we can see that that was the case.

But my other earlier point was the marked similarities in the 2 conferences:

2 top teams each: PITT/UCONN DUKE/UNC
1 near-great team: LOUISVILLE WAKE
2 decent teams behind: MARQ/NOVA CLEMSON/FSU

Minor points can be made in favour of any of those above, but one matter of interest to note of the top 5 in both:

OOC LOSSES: 3

OOC LOSSES: 6

Can you guess which is which?

 

[BigPapaVol]

My point was simply that your response was entirely opinion, and through the beauty of internet archiving we can see that that was the case.

But my other earlier point was the marked similarities in the 2 conferences:

2 top teams each: PITT/UCONN DUKE/UNC
1 near-great team: LOUISVILLE WAKE
2 decent teams behind: MARQ/NOVA CLEMSON/FSU

Minor points can be made in favour of any of those above, but one matter of interest to note of the top 5 in both:

OOC LOSSES: 3

OOC LOSSES: 6

Can you guess which is which?

The OOC loss stuff is garbage.

I'd take the Big East in almost every conceivable matchup you can put together in those categories.

Duke also belongs in the near great category with Wake and certainly no higher. They have no business in a conversation including Pitt and UConn.

 

[getyopopcornready]

Pitt could make a run. Defensively, they are a championship basketball team. Offensively, they are going to need someone to step it up big time in the tourney.

Yea i thought that too, but then I thought I could also see them losing to a Butler in the 2nd round or S16..

Hard to picture any team winning it this year honestly

 

[emainvol]

My point was simply that your response was entirely opinion, and through the beauty of internet archiving we can see that that was the case.

But my other earlier point was the marked similarities in the 2 conferences:

2 top teams each: PITT/UCONN DUKE/UNC
1 near-great team: LOUISVILLE WAKE
2 decent teams behind: MARQ/NOVA CLEMSON/FSU

Minor points can be made in favour of any of those above, but one matter of interest to note of the top 5 in both:

OOC LOSSES: 3

OOC LOSSES: 6

Can you guess which is which?

I think you rely entirely too much on numbers and not enough on the "eye test"

 

[lidderer]

The OOC loss stuff is garbage.

I'd take the Big East in almost every conceivable matchup you can put together in those categories.

Duke also belongs in the near great category with Wake and certainly no higher. They have no business in a conversation including Pitt and UConn.

OOC loss stuff is garbage? Why is that? I'm with you up to a point, it being early in the year and teams scheduling different opponents(though the BE didnt really schedule much quality; nor did the ACC actually(another similarity!), but those games do matter, even if not as much as certain other games.

The point being though: in a conversation about the relative merits of 1 conference over another, it would seem a bit strange to focus merely on within-conference records, since every game evens the ledger, and for certain parties a low-ranked team beating a higher-ranked team means "quality of depth" and to another observer it means "no great team". You can see where the problem lies.

I'd take UNC over Pitt, UCONN over Duke, Wake over Marquette, Louisville over Clemson, FSU over nova.

That, of course, too, is just opinion, and more a matter of what might probably happen in some idealized best of whathaveyou situation. Sadly, that doesn't really happen.

I'm sure, however, that if any of them meet-up in the tourney and, say, Wake beats a marquette, it would be because of 'luck' or some such thing, and to a certain extent vice versa. Such is a messageboard at times.

 

[BigPapaVol]

Yea i thought that too, but then I thought I could also see them losing to a Butler in the 2nd round or S16..

Hard to picture any team winning it this year honestly

With UConn's unfortunate injury situation, UNC had to become the odds favorite, but Pitt, Louisville or UConn still can lay claim to having the capability. OU has some youth and guard play issues IMO and have benefitted from a relatively weak conference. Dark horse: Memphis with that D.

 

[BigPapaVol]

I'd take UNC over Pitt, UCONN over Duke, Wake over Marquette, Louisville over Clemson, FSU over nova.

.

But you can't take Wake over Marquette. By your list they have to play Louisville where they would be housed. Clemson has to play Marquette or Nova and I don't think they can beat either. Same for FSU.

UNC might handle Pitt, but they weren't prepared to handle a healthy UConn. I don't like them that much against a nasty D playing Pitt team. Pitt's offense might kill them in the end, but I would always default to the elite defensive squad.

 

[lidderer]

I think you rely entirely too much on numbers and not enough on the "eye test"

Saying "I think X is awesome and Y sucks" is empty and doesn't really indicate an 'eye test'-ing having occurred.

I suppose I could have just said "ya well actually umm no, I think Y is awesome and X sucks", but I mean then where are we?

We're on a messageboard at 630pm on a tuesday night when 'our' team isn't even playing, it's safe to assume we've watched other games and know that Thabeet is tall! Scheyer makes funny faces! Syracuse gets too 3-heavy and ignores the inside game too soon; ASU fails to extend their zones when need be; FSU underutilized their best new threat; etc.

We've seen the same things, and we can mention those things, but numbers are often just another way of expressing those very same things. I can gladly change the numbers into cliche phrases, but then it just comes off like yet another boring opinion on the world's 83rd millionth messageboard.

Lidderer said "OOC: 3 Losses"...now translate that to "the top part of the ACC ran through their pre-conference games mostly untouched, and even though they didn't have many tough foes, they still beat most of the teams they should've. That didn't happen as much over in the Big east, where..." and you get the idea.

Or "Jeff Pendergraph shoots 67% 2 pt fgs and shoots on 22% of possible possessions"...now translate that to "For a big guy that scores down low better than anyone else, he doesn't just do so by taking only the easy shots, so he's someone to look out for come march."

Citing a number/stat is usually just an easy way to say something concisely, unlike this long entry(apologies).

 

[lidderer]

But you can't take Wake over Marquette. By your list they have to play Louisville where they would be housed. Clemson has to play Marquette or Nova and I don't think they can beat either. Same for FSU.

UNC might handle Pitt, but they weren't prepared to handle a healthy UConn. I don't like them that much against a nasty D playing Pitt team. Pitt's offense might kill them in the end, but I would always default to the elite defensive squad.

good point, I was just listing them off as they came to mind, where earlier i had the conf. standings in front of me.

And you're right, I probably would take Louisville over Wake, though it's awfully close. I'd still take clemson over marquette(who I just don't like at all). And while the nova/fsu game would be a toss-up, I'd lean towards fsu.

As for the pitt stuff: that's my big concern really, their O, and though the D is phenomenal, I'd be more tempted to go with UNC in that one, mostly because the heels hold on to the ball really well and pitt just has no clue how to create a turnover, no matter how great they are in every other facet.