Big 12 conference will have no choice

#1
molsen81

molsen81

San Francisco Bay Area Vol!
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#1
There's still a few weeks left but I think the Big 12 champ gets passed over and eliminated from the 4-team playoff bracket. They can't justify being better than the other big 5 conferences that have a conference championship game. I know the Big 12 has been waiting for quality schools to add but they don't have a choice anymore. They have to choose now.

BYU is not going to happen because they still think they're relevant as an independent. So I think one school from Texas and one school from Oklahoma.
Houston
Tulsa
 
#4
#4
There will be no expansion. There will a collapse and it'll all dissolve with each major member choosing their own destiny.

No one in the right mind would "join" the current Cow12 -2+1-1+2whatever
 
#6
#6
Big 12 is fine. They don't need Tulsa or Houston. Bob Bowlsby is smart and this conference is not going anywhere.
 
#7
#7
TXA&M07 said:
There will be no expansion. There will a collapse and it'll all dissolve with each major member choosing their own destiny.

No one in the right mind would "join" the current Cow12 -2+1-1+2whatever
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With the members it currently has, that conference will continue to exist unless Texas were to decide to leave. We both know that.

(Plus there's really no FBS school left of significant market size to add to begin with; any of the options available to the Big 12-2-1+1-1+1 would pretty much just result in each school taking in a smaller total share of their TV contract - and possibly bowl revenue - each season.)
 
#8
#8
molsen81 said:
There's still a few weeks left but I think the Big 12 champ gets passed over and eliminated from the 4-team playoff bracket. They can't justify being better than the other big 5 conferences that have a conference championship game. I know the Big 12 has been waiting for quality schools to add but they don't have a choice anymore. They have to choose now.

BYU is not going to happen because they still think they're relevant as an independent. So I think one school from Texas and one school from Oklahoma.
Houston
Tulsa
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wait, wut???

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#10
#10
While I highly doubt that the Big XII champ will be left out this year (assuming whoever it is doesn't have a second loss), there is so much wrong with the OP.

The Big XII doesn't need to expand to hold a title game. There is a proposal on the table to deregulate the conference title games, and it seems like it will pass in the near future. That would mean the Big XII could hold a title game with 10 members. But, they aren't going to, because Texas doesn't want one, which is why they stayed at 10 members in the first place.

Second, if the Big XII were to expand, they aren't going after a fifth Texas team, or a third Oklahoma team. BYU would certainly be on the table. The reason that BYU isn't currently in the Big XII is because Texas wanted to stay at 10. The Cougars are not content with staying independent. They threw themselves at the Big XII 3 years ago trying to get an invite.
 
#11
#11
If we are talking expansion been hearing Memphis and Cincy in the mix in the BigXII, they will be left off in the playoffs then the expansion talks begin if not already. T. Boone Pickens has been talking a lot about Memphis for some reason for the B12. Heard Louisville also but since they joined the ACC they're not going anywhere. I expect expansion this year. Could be wrong though.
 
#12
#12
Volz4lif3 said:
If we are talking expansion been hearing Memphis and Cincy in the mix in the BigXII, they will be left off in the playoffs then the expansion talks begin if not already. T. Boone Pickens has been talking a lot about Memphis for some reason for the B12. Heard Louisville also but since they joined the ACC they're not going anywhere. I expect expansion this year. Could be wrong though.
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Memphis is not sniffing an invite to the Big XII.
 
#14
#14
Volz4lif3 said:
If we are talking expansion been hearing Memphis and Cincy in the mix in the BigXII, they will be left off in the playoffs then the expansion talks begin if not already. T. Boone Pickens has been talking a lot about Memphis for some reason for the B12. Heard Louisville also but since they joined the ACC they're not going anywhere. I expect expansion this year. Could be wrong though.
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Volz4lif3 said:
If ya say so.. Been hearing talk here in Memphis and like I said T.Boone has been talking to Memphis..
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While Pickens does carry a lot of weight regarding Ok St. matters, he carries close to none when it comes to decisions the Big 12 conference will make...especially as he's not the University of Texas itself nor anyone who makes their decisions.

That said, there's really not anyway they likely add Cincy, unless they've already agreed to add a much larger market school and they just need a body.

Regardless of that, though, there's little to no chance they would actually take a serious look/consideration at adding a school like Memphis either; it'd just be a body to make sure they had a number of members, and market-wise - since TV footprints and such are what these expansions have been all about - they'd bring almost nothing to the table in that regard.

The conference wouldn't be gaining anything financially (especially regarding network contracts with the addition of Memphis), and they'd just be splitting the same size pie / same amount of money they already were getting but between more teams (i.e., everyone would just be getting a smaller piece of the pie).
 
#15
#15
TrueOrange said:
While Pickens does carry a lot of weight regarding Ok St. matters, he carries close to none when it comes to decisions the Big 12 conference will make...especially as he's not the University of Texas itself nor anyone who makes their decisions.

That said, there's really not anyway they likely add Cincy, unless they've already agreed to add a much larger market school and they just need a body.

Regardless of that, though, there's little to no chance they would actually take a serious look/consideration at adding a school like Memphis either; it'd just be a body to make sure they had a number of members, and market-wise - since TV footprints and such are what these expansions have been all about - they'd bring almost nothing to the table in that regard.

The conference wouldn't be gaining anything financially (especially regarding network contracts with the addition of Memphis), and they'd just be splitting the same size pie / same amount of money they already were getting but between more teams (i.e., everyone would just be getting a smaller piece of the pie).
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It would actually bring a good/decent market for TV and help with recruiting also this brings two teams closer to West Virginia, they are the only ones out east...but who knows.

With them possibly missing out on the playoffs I see an expansion coming from them. I've heard BYU also but been hearing things are too complicated with them.. Gonna be interesting anyways..
 
#16
#16
bamawriter said:
While I highly doubt that the Big XII champ will be left out this year (assuming whoever it is doesn't have a second loss), there is so much wrong with the OP.

The Big XII doesn't need to expand to hold a title game. There is a proposal on the table to deregulate the conference title games, and it seems like it will pass in the near future. That would mean the Big XII could hold a title game with 10 members. But, they aren't going to, because Texas doesn't want one, which is why they stayed at 10 members in the first place.
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It might not just be Texas on that one. I think part of the reason that they're so content staying at 10 is the basis/baseline that their television contract's working off. When the other teams left and the overall number dropped to 10 in the conference, their TV deal never decreased following the chaos; in fact, Fox and ESPN agreed to leave the conference's TV contracts as they were rather than lower (and that's amount has likely served as the base relative to negotiations since then).

They're pretty much splitting up a 12-team-based TV contract across 10 teams. While theirs certainly isn't the most lucrative of all the conferences, they were (at least, pre-SEC network...we'll see what the numbers turn out to be after this year) getting more per school (while the 14 SEC schools, for example, received about $20.9 mil. each after 2013, the 10 Big 12 schools each go $23 mil after the same year).

I agree Texas has the main say in that conference, but the other schools might also be perfectly content keeping as is at the moment, since they're all getting a greater amount of money.

Second, if the Big XII were to expand, they aren't going after a fifth Texas team, or a third Oklahoma team. BYU would certainly be on the table. The reason that BYU isn't currently in the Big XII is because Texas wanted to stay at 10. The Cougars are not content with staying independent. They threw themselves at the Big XII 3 years ago trying to get an invite.
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I'm not sure the conference would really want to add BYU at this point, anyways.

Plus ESPN pretty much let the conference know during the last round of expansion that the only school addition that would increase their TV contract would have been Notre Dame.
 
#17
#17
Volz4lif3 said:
If we are talking expansion been hearing Memphis and Cincy in the mix in the BigXII, they will be left off in the playoffs then the expansion talks begin if not already. T. Boone Pickens has been talking a lot about Memphis for some reason for the B12. Heard Louisville also but since they joined the ACC they're not going anywhere. I expect expansion this year. Could be wrong though.
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Memphis does even own their own stadium...They won't get a sniff from the big 12.
 
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#18
#18
Volz4lif3 said:
It would actually bring a good/decent market for TV and help with recruiting also this brings two teams closer to West Virginia, they are the only ones out east...but who knows.
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No it really wouldn't. It's a terribly small school without a very large fanbase/following in the sport.

Memphis itself is also not that large a market, and it doesn't really carry that area alone. While the metropolitan area is about #45 in size, it's an area that's designated with a part of Arkansas and Mississippi (it really isn't - as far as conference expansion markets go - a big footprint either...the ACC's most recent addition Louisville is about #41 and the two major metropolitan areas covered by the last SEC addition - Missouri - are about #26 and #21 in the country). It's also an area that's already split between Ole Miss, Arkansas, and UT...with each having a firmer grasp on the city in football, which is the determining sport in all this.

Let's say, though, for the purposes of the discussion, that the Big 12 were to go that route. They'd be investing money in a very small school (with quite a small following) pretty much in hopes that it could down the road possibly pull some market away from the 3 established, surrounding SEC state schools...and that would require quite a bit of work, invested money, and likely luck to grab even a worthwhile amount in that scenario. They wouldn't invite a school just to carry it for several years in the hopes of it turning out to be worthwhile; there'd be no significant monetary gain to offset the decreased amount annually the conference schools received.


The school's value was pretty much only enough for the then-Big East to not offer them an invite until when they reached the point of needing schools they knew would say yes to fill a body count replacing massive departures.



And they're really not going to add a small school without any major value, following, or monetary gain in football just to make West Virginia feel better.



With them possibly missing out on the playoffs I see an expansion coming from them. I've heard BYU also but been hearing things are too complicated with them.. Gonna be interesting anyways..
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You're just making stuff up for the heck of it now, aren't you?
 
#19
#19
Volz4lif3 said:
It would actually bring a good/decent market for TV and help with recruiting also this brings two teams closer to West Virginia, they are the only ones out east...but who knows.

With them possibly missing out on the playoffs I see an expansion coming from them. I've heard BYU also but been hearing things are too complicated with them.. Gonna be interesting anyways..
Click to expand...

The problem with Memphis is that their football fanbase is small, and it doesn't travel. This season, in a new new and supposedly better conference, they're averaging 56% capacity at the Liberty Bowl. And it's not like the Liberty Bowl is huge. Memphis simply isn't a big enough fish to be considered for a major conference.

Cincinnati is a slightly better option if a warm body is needed. The market is better, and the fanbase is a little stronger, too.

If the Big XII is going to expand, they'll start with BYU. I would consider San Diego State an option as well.
 
#20
#20
So WV could enjoy a night game in San Deigo? That'll be a fun trip for them both.
 
#22
#22
bamawriter said:
The San Diego market is much, much more attractive than the Memphis market in pretty much every way.
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If that were to ever happen, the NCAA and the schools could never again convince anybody that the "student" part of student-athlete actually matters. You're talking about travelling across the country to play a conference game.
 
#23
#23
GoBigOrangeUT said:
If that were to ever happen, the NCAA and the schools could never again convince anybody that the "student" part of student-athlete actually matters. You're talking about travelling across the country to play a conference game.
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Don't forget, two years ago San Diego State had accepted an invite to the Big East. Had the confererence not split apart, they'd be playing conference games against UConn, Central Florida, and East Carolina.
 
#24
#24
Well, I say the should invite Rutgers, Washington State, UC Santa Barbara, and Coastal Carolina. Then they can change their cute little slogan from "We play each other" to "We play all over the gotdam country".

It'd be awesome.
 
#25
#25
Volz4lif3 said:
It would actually bring a good/decent market for TV and help with recruiting also this brings two teams closer to West Virginia, they are the only ones out east...but who knows.

With them possibly missing out on the playoffs I see an expansion coming from them. I've heard BYU also but been hearing things are too complicated with them.. Gonna be interesting anyways..
Click to expand...

If, IF the BIG XII were to expand it will be to the east. The Oklahoma and Texas schools would insist on remaining together for geography and recruiting reasons.

Two most logical teams to add would be Cincy and UCF...two very furtile grounds., both are already the #2 programs in their states. OU President Boren is already on board with Cincy and it wouldn't take too much to get the others to follow. Throw those two programs some P5 money and see what they can do. If they flop it's easy trip to the title game in their east for K State or WVU.
 
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