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Bleedin' Orange...
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Week Three was the Big Ten's week, much as Week One was.
The SEC has the slightest of statistical advantages in Week Three when you compare records against all OOC opponents, at 83% to 82% (5-1 versus 9-2). But the B10 greatly surpasses the SEC, and every other conference, in P5-vs-P5 results, with a dominating 5-0 result this weekend. The "5" includes compelling wins over the B12 (Ohio State beat Oklahoma 45-24), the PAC (Michigan over Colorado, 45-28, and Nebraska beat Oregon, 35-32), and Notre Dame (Mich State beat them, 36-28). Even Northwestern got into the act, pummelling fellow smart-school Duke of the ACC, 24-13. Yes, this was the B10's week.
Meanwhile the SEC, which started conference play in earnest, lost its lone P5-vs-P5 game when Vandy choked on Georgia Tech's wishbone, 38-7. The conference did well otherwise in OOC play, 5-0 not counting Vandy, but all against lighter competition.
The PAC was right up there with the top conferences in OOC results, at 8-2 (80%), but results were more decidedly mixed when you look specifically at P5-vs-P5: 2-2 (50%). That's still enough to outshine the ACC and B12, both of whom went 1-2 (33%) versus P5 opponents. The B12 was once again tail-end Charlie among Power 5 conferences, with a 4-3 (57%) win rate against all OOC competition this weekend.
Looking at the season to date, the B10 is making a compelling case for the title, King of the Power 5 Hill. At 30-8 (almost 80%) versus all OOC opponents to date, and a dominating 8-3 (73%) record against Power 5, it's hard to argue they're not the best conference in college football so far.
Can the SEC catch them? Maybe, but the window of opportunity closes a little more each week. We have already played ten of our P5-vs-P5 games of the regular season; only five more remain. It seems highly unlikely we will sweep those, since four of the five games come in the final week with the traditional SEC-vs-ACC in-state battles (FL-FSU, UGa-GaTech, USCe-Clemson, and KY-Louisville). Even if we were to win all five remaining P5 matches, the best we can do on the regular season is 10-5 (67%), a record the B10 is already surpassing and looks to have a good chance to maintain.
The B10 front-loaded their OOC schedule even more than the SEC. They only have four games left out-of-conference. Three of those will happen this coming weekend (Indiana-Wake Forest, Minnesota-Colorado State, and Purdue-Nevada), and then the final OOC game takes place in early October, with Michigan State vs BYU. Note: only two of those games are against P5+I2 teams: Indiana-Wake, and Mich St-BYU. And that's it; the rest of the year for them, all 14 teams, is conference play.
So here's the only way the SEC retains the title as best conference in college football (based on regular season results): sweep the ACC at the end of the year, end up 10-5 (67%) vs P5 opponents, while the B10 loses its last two P5-v-P5 games, ending the season 8-5 (62%). If the B10 wins either one of those games against Wake and BYU, we can't catch them.
How likely is all this? Not very. Kentucky looks to be in no position thus far to beat Louisville, nor USCe to beat Clemson. Florida winning over FSU is a crap shoot.
Bottom line from Week 3 is, don't be surprised to hear the National Media take up the hue and cry that the SEC's crown has been usurped by the B10. The on-field results are on their side, and will likely remain that way until we get to bowl season.
Here's hoping we can reverse those fortunes in December and January; the regular season is all but over for out-of-conference play, already.
p.s. Last season, I kept reporting on Power 5 out-of-conference standings through the entire year. At this point in 2016, that seems a bit superfluous (not to mention masochistic). So, for now, I'm planning on NOT reporting each of the coming weeks; will continue to track it, but will only post if there seems to be something significant and new. Go Vols!
The SEC has the slightest of statistical advantages in Week Three when you compare records against all OOC opponents, at 83% to 82% (5-1 versus 9-2). But the B10 greatly surpasses the SEC, and every other conference, in P5-vs-P5 results, with a dominating 5-0 result this weekend. The "5" includes compelling wins over the B12 (Ohio State beat Oklahoma 45-24), the PAC (Michigan over Colorado, 45-28, and Nebraska beat Oregon, 35-32), and Notre Dame (Mich State beat them, 36-28). Even Northwestern got into the act, pummelling fellow smart-school Duke of the ACC, 24-13. Yes, this was the B10's week.
Meanwhile the SEC, which started conference play in earnest, lost its lone P5-vs-P5 game when Vandy choked on Georgia Tech's wishbone, 38-7. The conference did well otherwise in OOC play, 5-0 not counting Vandy, but all against lighter competition.
The PAC was right up there with the top conferences in OOC results, at 8-2 (80%), but results were more decidedly mixed when you look specifically at P5-vs-P5: 2-2 (50%). That's still enough to outshine the ACC and B12, both of whom went 1-2 (33%) versus P5 opponents. The B12 was once again tail-end Charlie among Power 5 conferences, with a 4-3 (57%) win rate against all OOC competition this weekend.
Looking at the season to date, the B10 is making a compelling case for the title, King of the Power 5 Hill. At 30-8 (almost 80%) versus all OOC opponents to date, and a dominating 8-3 (73%) record against Power 5, it's hard to argue they're not the best conference in college football so far.
Can the SEC catch them? Maybe, but the window of opportunity closes a little more each week. We have already played ten of our P5-vs-P5 games of the regular season; only five more remain. It seems highly unlikely we will sweep those, since four of the five games come in the final week with the traditional SEC-vs-ACC in-state battles (FL-FSU, UGa-GaTech, USCe-Clemson, and KY-Louisville). Even if we were to win all five remaining P5 matches, the best we can do on the regular season is 10-5 (67%), a record the B10 is already surpassing and looks to have a good chance to maintain.
The B10 front-loaded their OOC schedule even more than the SEC. They only have four games left out-of-conference. Three of those will happen this coming weekend (Indiana-Wake Forest, Minnesota-Colorado State, and Purdue-Nevada), and then the final OOC game takes place in early October, with Michigan State vs BYU. Note: only two of those games are against P5+I2 teams: Indiana-Wake, and Mich St-BYU. And that's it; the rest of the year for them, all 14 teams, is conference play.
So here's the only way the SEC retains the title as best conference in college football (based on regular season results): sweep the ACC at the end of the year, end up 10-5 (67%) vs P5 opponents, while the B10 loses its last two P5-v-P5 games, ending the season 8-5 (62%). If the B10 wins either one of those games against Wake and BYU, we can't catch them.
How likely is all this? Not very. Kentucky looks to be in no position thus far to beat Louisville, nor USCe to beat Clemson. Florida winning over FSU is a crap shoot.
Bottom line from Week 3 is, don't be surprised to hear the National Media take up the hue and cry that the SEC's crown has been usurped by the B10. The on-field results are on their side, and will likely remain that way until we get to bowl season.
Here's hoping we can reverse those fortunes in December and January; the regular season is all but over for out-of-conference play, already.
p.s. Last season, I kept reporting on Power 5 out-of-conference standings through the entire year. At this point in 2016, that seems a bit superfluous (not to mention masochistic). So, for now, I'm planning on NOT reporting each of the coming weeks; will continue to track it, but will only post if there seems to be something significant and new. Go Vols!
