Are the 5 star QBs really worth the money?

[HooahVol]

This is not another Nico thread although he fits the spirit of what I am trying to say. Saturday we saw Arch, the 6.8 million dollar man, really do nothing very impressive. We saw Klubnik, the 3.4 million dollar man, struggle mightily against LSU. We watched another 5 star, Ty Simpson, get destroyed by FSU. He just looked lost. Of course, we know the Nico story. Then you watch guys like JA and John Mateer at Oklahoma, both journey men who have learned the game at smaller schools and transfer in with experience just light the place up. While occasionally you get a Trevor Lawrence who comes in and changes everything their Freshman year that is very much the exception, not the rule. If Texas, for example, used some of that 6.8 million to get more offensive weapons I think they would be a better team.

I said all this on this forum instead of the around the NCAA one because I really think Heup has figured this out. He tried sticking with Milton because of the cannon for the arm but it did not fit. He got a little starried eyed with Nico because he was the prettiest girl at prom that year recruiting but Nico really never fit Heup's system. I think now Heupel knows divas can really screw up a locker room and his system needs a decent duel threat QB, not a NFL pocket passer. The extra money can be spent on important things like offensive line. Honestly, I think Heupel was the first coach to really embrace all the changes in college football and is now the first coach to start figuring out how to really make it work.

 

[YankeeVol]

I really think Heup has figured this out

Well he has another 5* coming in next year in Fazion

 

[Other_Guy]

He seemed to follow the Michigan model of paying to make sure his guys stayed (hence the senior laden team last year), as the wolverines weren't the most talented but the experience/continuity paid off (see ole miss and fsu for the opposite approach).
What no one outside of Tenn ever mentions is the dude doesn't miss with the transfers and has balanced how many to bring it. I heard pundits act like it was a negative they didnt do more in the portal.
Yeah, they probably could've got another WR with the money thet saved on nico, but they only play a couple of guys anyway. If they truly like the 2 FR and already have Jefferson (and plan to rely on a deep TE room), I'm not even sure that's much of a criticism.
Heupel may never be able to win a natty, but its clear hes one of the best program/team managers in the game in this new age of cfb.
Who has he missed on with portal gets?

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

MacIntyre was also a high 4 star, borderline 5 star and he’s waiting his turn.

 

[Vol8188]

When you get the right one it’s worth it. If you end up with J Daniels level play, most high level programs are going to turn that into a NC. How many elite QBs can perform at that level? Maybe 1/20?

But isn’t a 1 in 20 shot at a NC worth it? I’d say so.

 

[KoachKrab127]

There are 1st round QBs that teams invest millions upon millions of dollars into every year, and many of them end up being busts. It’s no different with college. Sometimes their skills just don’t translate to the next level, and it’s very difficult to evaluate that factor.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Giving millions to a 5* just because they are a 5* is not smart but giving millions to the QB you need to run your system and put you in position to win NC is worth the millions not matter how many stars they have…. You are not winning a NC without the right QB.

 

[UTFanForLife]

I do not feel any high school QB is worth 2+ Million. The step up to College is a lot to handle, especially in big time programs. But just like Coaches salaries, that is what the market is demanding.

 

[utvolpj]

I sure hope 5* and #1 ranked qb Faizon Brandon is worth it

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Giving HS QBs millions is buying futures and hope you guessed right but it you got the money to lose you can make a lot.

 

[LWSVOL]

This is not another Nico thread although he fits the spirit of what I am trying to say. Saturday we saw Arch, the 6.8 million dollar man, really do nothing very impressive. We saw Klubnik, the 3.4 million dollar man, struggle mightily against LSU. We watched another 5 star, Ty Simpson, get destroyed by FSU. He just looked lost. Of course, we know the Nico story. Then you watch guys like JA and John Mateer at Oklahoma, both journey men who have learned the game at smaller schools and transfer in with experience just light the place up. While occasionally you get a Trevor Lawrence who comes in and changes everything their Freshman year that is very much the exception, not the rule. If Texas, for example, used some of that 6.8 million to get more offensive weapons I think they would be a better team.

I said all this on this forum instead of the around the NCAA one because I really think Heup has figured this out. He tried sticking with Milton because of the cannon for the arm but it did not fit. He got a little starried eyed with Nico because he was the prettiest girl at prom that year recruiting but Nico really never fit Heup's system. I think now Heupel knows divas can really screw up a locker room and his system needs a decent duel threat QB, not a NFL pocket passer. The extra money can be spent on important things like offensive line. Honestly, I think Heupel was the first coach to really embrace all the changes in college football and is now the first coach to start figuring out how to really make it work.

it is not going to stop but IMO it is crazy to pay a million plus to any high school recruit (and we offered Hiter over a million). You never know what you're getting. I also think that is true for these kids in college that they are paying high dollars for.

I don't think Nico applied / applies himself to football to develop his talents and its mostly due to the fact he has so much money. Many kids would not know how to handle that influx of dollars at that age.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

it is not going to stop but IMO it is crazy to pay a million plus to any high school recruit (and we offered Hiter over a million). You never know what you're getting. I also think that is true for these kids in college that they are paying high dollars for.

I don't think Nico applied / applies himself to football to develop his talents and its mostly due to the fact he has so much money. Many kids would not know how to handle that influx of dollars at that age.

You nailed it, man. This bugged me about Nico all these years, but I couldn't put my finger on it. His heart doesn't seem to be in the game. He's a volleyball player doing the football thing because that's where the money is. He doesn't love this sport.

And so he will never be successful at the highest levels of the game, where _everyone_ has extreme physical talent and so that's not enough, gotta have great drive too.

Go Vols!

 

[Carp]

Much like NFL draft, recruiting is crap shoot. The best you can do is pull the best talent that fits your scheme and hope you can develop him. But there are plenty of 5 stars that work out. Drew Allar is really good. DJ Lagway has looked good. Dylan Raiola has been a bit of a mixed bag, but he'e been mostly good. Quinn Ewers, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye were really, really good from the same class. And despite his performance Saturday, Klubnik has been really good for Clemson the past couple of years.

It seems the 2023 class was a good bit overrated. Obviously it's too early to proclaim them all as busts, but none of them have looked super impressive, or they haven't been good enough to get on the field until now.


But I can see the argument that the 5 star QB money might be better spent building up other positions. With our offense, you could pull the best G5 QB in the portal every year or every other year, and you wouldn't have to pay them as much as some of these 5 star HS Qbs.

 

[Oldvoldad]

This is not another Nico thread although he fits the spirit of what I am trying to say. Saturday we saw Arch, the 6.8 million dollar man, really do nothing very impressive. We saw Klubnik, the 3.4 million dollar man, struggle mightily against LSU. We watched another 5 star, Ty Simpson, get destroyed by FSU. He just looked lost. Of course, we know the Nico story. Then you watch guys like JA and John Mateer at Oklahoma, both journey men who have learned the game at smaller schools and transfer in with experience just light the place up. While occasionally you get a Trevor Lawrence who comes in and changes everything their Freshman year that is very much the exception, not the rule. If Texas, for example, used some of that 6.8 million to get more offensive weapons I think they would be a better team.

I said all this on this forum instead of the around the NCAA one because I really think Heup has figured this out. He tried sticking with Milton because of the cannon for the arm but it did not fit. He got a little starried eyed with Nico because he was the prettiest girl at prom that year recruiting but Nico really never fit Heup's system. I think now Heupel knows divas can really screw up a locker room and his system needs a decent duel threat QB, not a NFL pocket passer. The extra money can be spent on important things like offensive line. Honestly, I think Heupel was the first coach to really embrace all the changes in college football and is now the first coach to start figuring out how to really make it work.

If you are watching CFB closely the last few years, there is something to be said about getting an older guy that has been in the fire and understands what defenses are trying to do.

Can a hott shot freshman get it done? Yes. But what do the odds say?

 

[ArmchairQB]

There was some upside to signing Nico regardless of how it panned out. How many other recruits that we signed, don't, if we hadn't pulled a marquee QB? Chalk it up to being one step on the journey to where we want to be. Unless we suddenly become clairvoyant, there's not a lot of choice but to just try stuff and hope we've made good decisions and then see how it pans out.

 

[77' Vol]

I sure hope 5* and #1 ranked qb Faizon Brandon is worth it

Having Faizon committed makes it possible to recruit highly rated WRs such as Tristen Keys. Otherwise, VOLS would have had no chance at Keys.

 

[scottvols69]

The problem with Nico and with honestly some other of the 5 stars is they are thinking past the moment and playing for stats and draft day. They look for the easy dink and dunk high percentage throws to boost their stats instead of throwing the low percentage down field shots.

When you find the 5 stars who aren't afraid of stats then you find the T. Lawrence J Daniel’s types.

 

[Godfatha]

I understand you still have to recruit high school kids as a base, but I'd rather pay a proven guy the $2 million a year (or whatever Nico was getting). The thing with paying these high school kids that kind of money is that: 1) you don't know how they're going to translate to the college game, 2) you're likely paying a freshman good money to not even play. Whatever you paid Nico in the year and a half or so that he didn't play, could have been spent on someone who could contribute.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

You nailed it, man. This bugged me about Nico all these years, but I couldn't put my finger on it. His heart doesn't seem to be in the game. He's a volleyball player doing the football thing because that's where the money is. He doesn't love this sport.

And so he will never be successful at the highest levels of the game, where _everyone_ has extreme physical talent and so that's not enough, gotta have great drive too.

Go Vols!

I had a very wise multi-biilionaire CEO of a retail company tell me one day: “We have to get up every day and believe with all our heart that we suck and are not good enough and strive to get better or else we will become K-Mart.” BTW…He was CEO of the largest Home Improvement retailer in the world and was fired from his previous retailer for trying to make changes to make the company better…LOL

Nico has been told all his life he was great by those around him and he believed it. Think about it, his dad blamed others on the team.

To be the best you have to get up every day and believe you need to be better and put in the work to get better.

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

Top rated recruits want to play with top rated recruits. Unfortunately I don't think we can just stop recruiting the 5 star types because we had a bust.

 

[Other_Guy]

Did anyone notice nico is throwing to a Mikey matthews?

 

[TNSlaytanic]

Found on Reddit. Not my post, but interesting.

I was simply curious how often QBs who played in and won the national championship game in college amounted to anything in the NFL, my intuition was not much. I decided to include QBs who played for a team that won the national championship by some random poll or computer (shown in the chart).

Season	Quarterback	College	BCS/CFP Champion?	Random Poll Champion?	Heisman Winner?	College HOF	NFL Draft Status	NFL Career Length (in Years)	Pro-Bowls	All-Pros	MVPs	Super Bowl Championships
1998	Tee Martin	Tennessee	Yes				5th rd	2
1999	Chris Weinke	Florida State	Yes		Yes		4th rd	5
2000/2001	Ken Dorsey	Miami	No/Yes	NYT(2000)			7th rd	4
2000	Josh Heupel	Oklahoma	Yes				6th rd	0
2002	Craig Krenzel	Ohio State	Yes				5th rd	1
2002	Carson Palmer	USC	No	DuS, MGR, SR	Yes	Yes	1st Overall	14	3
2003	Matt Mauck	LSU	Yes				7th rd	1
2003	Matt Leinart	USC	No	AP	Yes	Yes	1st rd	6
2003	Jason White	Oklahoma	No	B(QPRS)	Yes		XXX	0
2004	VACATED
2005	Vince Young	Texas	Yes			Yes	1st Rd	6	2
2006	Chris Leak	Florida	Yes				XXX	0
2006	Troy Smith	Ohio State	No	DeS, R(FACT)	Yes		5th rd	4
2007	Matt Flynn	LSU	Yes				7th rd	7				1
2007	Chase Daniel	Missouri	No	A&H			XXX	13
2007	John David Booty	USC	No	DuS			5th rd	0
2008	Tim Tebow	Florida	Yes		Yes	Yes	1st rd	3
2008	Brian Johnson	Utah	No	A&H. W			XXX	0
2009	Greg McElroy	Alabama	Yes				7th rd	1
2010	Cam Newton	Auburn	Yes		Yes		1st Overall	11	3	1	1
2010	Andy Dalton	TCU	No	CCR			2nd rd	14*	3
2011/2012	AJ McCarron	Alabama	Yes/Yes				5th rd	7
2011^	Jarrett Lee	LSU	No	A&H, CCR			XXX	0
2011^	Jordan Jefferson	LSU	No	A&H, CCR			XXX	0
2011	Brandon Weeden	Oklahoma State	No	CM			1st rd	5
2012	Everett Golson	Notre Dame	No	CM			XXX	0
2013	Jameis Winston	Florida State	Yes		Yes		1st Overall	10*	1
2014	JT Barrett^	Ohio State	Yes				XXX	0
2014	Cardale Jones^	Ohio State	Yes				4th rd	1
2015	Jake Coker	Alabama	Yes				XXX	0
2016	Deshaun Watson	Clemson	Yes				1st rd	7*	3
2016/2017	Jalen Hurts	Alabama	No/Yes	CM(2016)			2nd rd	5*
2017	Tua Tagovailoa	Alabama	Yes				1st rd	5*	1
2017	McKenzie Milton	UCF	No	CM			XXX	0
2018	Trevor Lawrence	Clemson	Yes				1st Overall	4*	1
2019	Joe Burrow	LSU	Yes		Yes		1st Overall	5*	2
2020	Mac Jones	Alabama	Yes				1st rd	4*	1
2021/2022	Stetson Bennett	Georgia	Yes/Yes				4th rd	2**
2023	JJ McCarthy	Michigan	Yes				1st rd	1**
2024	???	???	???	???			???

^Jarett Lee and Jordan Jefferson shared duties in 2011 for LSU. Lee was used the most, while Jefferson played in the BCSNCG, so was included. Thanks to u/Kinder22 for correcting me.
^^JT Barrett was injured for the BCSNCG; Cardale Jones played in the NCG, so was included. Thanks to u/LittleTension8765 for bringing attention to the asterisk I included on Cardale Jones, which was originally put in to indicate what is now in this place.
*Currently on an NFL roster
**Currently on an NFL roster but has not played a snap
By my account, there are 38 different quarterbacks (title says 37 but I originally missed Jordan Jefferson) who have won a national championship by winning the BCSNCG, CFP, or some end-of-the-year poll since the beginning of the BCS era.
Of those 38 QBs, 9 of them won a Heisman trophy, 4 have been enshrined in the CFB HOF, 10 have had at least one NFL Pro-Bowl appearance with 15 total instances, 1 player has made an All-Pro team (once, Cam Newton), 1 player has won the MVP (once, Cam Newton), 1 player has won a Super Bowl ( Matt Flynn as a backup), 2 players won rookie of the year (Vince Young & Cam Newton), and 2 players have won comeback player of the year (Vince Young, Joe Burrow). Thanks to u/StreetReporter and u/KerryonsCrayons for corrections on Cam Newton winning rookie of the year and spelling of Auburn (my in-laws will kill me)
Of these 38 QBs, they averaged being drafted in the 4th rd (including undrafted players, which I counted as being drafted in a hypothetical 8th round). There were 13 players drafted in the first round, with 5 players being drafted 1st overall. 10 players went undrafted, but 11 players never played in the NFL (JJ McCarthy and Stetson Bennett not included). The average career length is 3.8 years.
I don't know how the polls will shake out this year (if they update after ND/OSU play each other or not), but make your own conclusions/predictions about Riley Leonard/Will Howard/Dillon Gabriel, etc with these data.
I don't know how I missed the data on Tee Martin's playing time in the NFL, but he did play for two seasons. I think I saw no stats in the first season and moved on, my bad.

 

[EastTNVol6240]

This is not another Nico thread although he fits the spirit of what I am trying to say. Saturday we saw Arch, the 6.8 million dollar man, really do nothing very impressive. We saw Klubnik, the 3.4 million dollar man, struggle mightily against LSU. We watched another 5 star, Ty Simpson, get destroyed by FSU. He just looked lost. Of course, we know the Nico story. Then you watch guys like JA and John Mateer at Oklahoma, both journey men who have learned the game at smaller schools and transfer in with experience just light the place up. While occasionally you get a Trevor Lawrence who comes in and changes everything their Freshman year that is very much the exception, not the rule. If Texas, for example, used some of that 6.8 million to get more offensive weapons I think they would be a better team.

I said all this on this forum instead of the around the NCAA one because I really think Heup has figured this out. He tried sticking with Milton because of the cannon for the arm but it did not fit. He got a little starried eyed with Nico because he was the prettiest girl at prom that year recruiting but Nico really never fit Heup's system. I think now Heupel knows divas can really screw up a locker room and his system needs a decent duel threat QB, not a NFL pocket passer. The extra money can be spent on important things like offensive line. Honestly, I think Heupel was the first coach to really embrace all the changes in college football and is now the first coach to start figuring out how to really make it work.

Figured this out? We have 5 star QBs en route as you typed this. And I bet they’ll get a nice payday. Heup isn’t the rain man you want him to be. Sometimes those stars translate from HS to college, sometimes they don’t. It’s that simple.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Did anyone notice nico is throwing to a Mikey matthews?

Did you mean throwing TO him, or throwing SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VAGUE VICINITY OF HIM, PARTICULARLY 5 YARDS DEEPER?

Heh.

Go Vols!

 

[VOLINVONORE]

This is not another Nico thread although he fits the spirit of what I am trying to say. Saturday we saw Arch, the 6.8 million dollar man, really do nothing very impressive. We saw Klubnik, the 3.4 million dollar man, struggle mightily against LSU. We watched another 5 star, Ty Simpson, get destroyed by FSU. He just looked lost. Of course, we know the Nico story. Then you watch guys like JA and John Mateer at Oklahoma, both journey men who have learned the game at smaller schools and transfer in with experience just light the place up. While occasionally you get a Trevor Lawrence who comes in and changes everything their Freshman year that is very much the exception, not the rule. If Texas, for example, used some of that 6.8 million to get more offensive weapons I think they would be a better team.

I said all this on this forum instead of the around the NCAA one because I really think Heup has figured this out. He tried sticking with Milton because of the cannon for the arm but it did not fit. He got a little starried eyed with Nico because he was the prettiest girl at prom that year recruiting but Nico really never fit Heup's system. I think now Heupel knows divas can really screw up a locker room and his system needs a decent duel threat QB, not a NFL pocket passer. The extra money can be spent on important things like offensive line. Honestly, I think Heupel was the first coach to really embrace all the changes in college football and is now the first coach to start figuring out how to really make it work.

It’s a crap shoot. If the QB is really what fits your, system and has way above average ability to read defenses, can run the ball when required ,and make quick/accurate decisions, then, yes he is worth every penny you are willing or can afford to pay him. This takes a lot of effort on the coaches doing the evaluation of the player and the strength of the defense he plays against. Nico doesn’t have the football knowledge to play championship football. Based on what I have seen and heard, we have the real thing coming in foe 2026.