Any player that posts a 1.30 point per shot

[Volfan2012]

attempt or better has done their job on offense. Looking at last year's team you can easily determine which players did well offensively and which one didn't.

Simmons 1.18
Harrison 1.50
Massengale 1.31
Graves 1.43
Carter 1.31
Russell 1.42
Jones 1.00
Reynolds 0.99
Burdick 1.03
Moore 1.26 limited action

Top four liabilities on offense last season were Simmons, Jones,Burdick, and Reynolds.
The best offensive guards were Carter and Massengale.

All the post players had great offensive production.


Assist to turnover ratio should be at least 1.5 assists to 1 turnover

Massengale 2.3 to 1
Carter 1.7 to 1
Simmons 0.86 to 1
Graves 0.79 to 1
Harrison 0.36 to 1
Burdick 0.97 to 1
Russell 0.40 to 1
Jones 0.45 to 1
Reynolds 2.1 to 1
Moore 0.46 to 1

So only three players played at a high level in this stat they were Massengale, Carter, and Reynolds.

Massengale was clearly the best guard on last year's team and Carter second.

All the posts were great offensive players that were plagued by turnovers and failure to find many open players from the post for assists.

What this says is we can be a more efficient team and win more games with Carter and Massengale playing the one and two guard positions if they play at the same level. Both average 1.31 points per shot attempt last season. If they both took 10 shots per game this season and kept the same level both would average 13.1 ppg. People we don't want taking a lot of shots are Jones and Reynolds both only average 1 point per shot last season. We need for all the post to cut down on turnovers dramatically they were all turnover machines.

So based on the stats from last season I have come up with this starting lineup and rotation.


PG-Massengale
SG-Carter
C-Harrison
WF-Nared
PF-Graves

Back up point Reynolds needs to do more passing and less shooting.
Burdick by default is number seven.
Tucker depending on health is number eight
Dunbar and Middleton round out the top ten.

That leaves Jones and Moore on the bench. Jones needs to be dramatically improved in both shooting and floor game to see many minutes. I realize she is considered one of our best defenders but her floor game is awful on offense.

The stats show that Simmons who has now graduated, had a very poor season from an efficiency standpoint.
So did Burdick and Jones with Jones being the worst player on the team based on efficiency.

If this year's team can have a large reduction of post player turnovers, become better passers from the post and wing position and maintain the same offensive efficiency that they had last season. This team will be a final four team. Someone will have to step up and take 488 shots that Simmons took look forward to the season.

 

[stllvf]

good beginning for a thread. several fallacies - the first being the post players will by definition have more turnovers than assists because of how much pushing is allowed leading to steps (TOs) Also the inside out offense doesn't give an assist to a post who returns the ball OUT and the player shoots and hits, however a entry pass resulting in a score does get an assist.

My other response is if only the LVs played by the rules of the original women's rules.

Your five players played offense and then the better defensive players alternated. Not all the LV guards could disrupt dribble drives. One of them has graduated and one of them is on your starting team. And an agreed offensively player who at times was a liability on the floor is strong defensive presence on the perimeter.

A stat that would be telling is Unforced turnovers. Another would be turnovers-caused by the defensive player. Another is efficiency in boxing out. A fourth is number of times the person being guarded beat the player down the floor on offense.
(All those stats and more are kept and noted by coaches).

 

[AllforTenn]

good beginning for a thread. several fallacies - the first being the post players will by definition have more turnovers than assists because of how much pushing is allowed leading to steps (TOs) Also the inside out offense doesn't give an assist to a post who returns the ball OUT and the player shoots and hits, however a entry pass resulting in a score does get an assist.

My other response is if only the LVs played by the rules of the original women's rules.

Your five players played offense and then the better defensive players alternated. Not all the LV guards could disrupt dribble drives. One of them has graduated and one of them is on your starting team. And an agreed offensively player who at times was a liability on the floor is strong defensive presence on the perimeter.

A stat that would be telling is Unforced turnovers. Another would be turnovers-caused by the defensive player. Another is efficiency in boxing out. A fourth is number of times the person being guarded beat the player down the floor on offense.
(All those stats and more are kept and noted by coaches).

This is better reasoning as to a player's efficiency and value to a team.

 

[Amb3096]

Simmons never met a shot she didn't like, but she was willing to take them. She was the most tightly defended guard, but she still put up shots and scored points. Carter was never a priority for opposing teams defensive plays. Sure, her pts per attempt were better than Simmons, but Holly has to beg her to shoot. Graves was same as Carter in a lot of ways...she was afraid to shoot in a lot of games. This is an example where I don't think stats tell the true story.

The best offensive players for Tennessee were Simmons, Harrison and Massengale. They were the ones who were committed to making things happen on offense. I'd put Graves next. Russell was soft and should have powered her way to the basket more...otherwise, I'd put her in the first tier. The rest of the team was ehhh....

Carter gets a lot of love on this board, but if she is the starting SG this season and still is afraid to shoot, then Tennessee will not be a top 10 team. She's a big guard, athletic and fast. She should be looking for her shot more. Otherwise, she can be Ariel's backup at PG.

 

[Volfan2012]

good beginning for a thread. several fallacies - the first being the post players will by definition have more turnovers than assists because of how much pushing is allowed leading to steps (TOs) Also the inside out offense doesn't give an assist to a post who returns the ball OUT and the player shoots and hits, however a entry pass resulting in a score does get an assist.

My other response is if only the LVs played by the rules of the original women's rules.

Your five players played offense and then the better defensive players alternated. Not all the LV guards could disrupt dribble drives. One of them has graduated and one of them is on your starting team. And an agreed offensively player who at times was a liability on the floor is strong defensive presence on the perimeter.

A stat that would be telling is Unforced turnovers. Another would be turnovers-caused by the defensive player. Another is efficiency in boxing out. A fourth is number of times the person being guarded beat the player down the floor on offense.
(All those stats and more are kept and noted by coaches).

Bigs will have more turnovers than assists unless you play for UConn. Their big 6'5" player from last season had 135 assists and 103 turnovers. 1.3 to 1. Stewart 122 assists 67 turnovers 1.8 to 1, so you compare that to Graves and Harrison and you see that our posts are not doing the job in turnover assist ratio. Matter of fact our bigs rank as the worst in the top ten teams. If they have a system where their big players can generate 225 assist to 170 turnovers then our players should be able to at least be better than what their numbers show.
Getting the ball stuck in your hands is the worst thing that can happen to a post. Ours do it all the time and that is why they turn it over. You either catch and shoot or you pass there is no dribbling or deciding you can overcome a double team allowed. Our turnovers come from players trying to make a play when there is no play. That is why their turnovers to assist is so high and will continue to be until they get a better IQ of how to play the game.

 

[armchair]

Since when does a Big not get an assist for making a pass that results in a basket? That cannot be true--why would it not be an assist? An assist is an assist. Scoring points does not make you, ipso facto, a good basketball player. Anybody can score points if they shoot the ball enough--and that was the problem with Simmons: her shooting percentage was not as high as it should be, and she never created good shots for others. As Volfan's numbers show, she was an /inefficient/ player--and inefficiency hurts you rather dramatically against good teams. This is PRECISELY why ND and Ct. are such good teams--because they are excellent passing teams, which translates into offensive efficiency. UT has not been a good passing team for at least a decade, and that's about as long as I have been screaming about the problem. You would think that the coaches would catch on to this issue at some point--but our coaches never do because we have the same problem EVERY YEAR! We do not know how to run an efficient team offense. We do not pass the ball well enough to beat the top teams. Does anybody remember when ND came to Thompson-Bolling a couple of years ago? They absolutely embarrassed us with their deft passing and our horrible defense. We have this philosophy, a remnant of PS's old-school approach, that you try at all costs to get the ball inside, and then the big inside is supposed to score. Unfortunately, we too often try to force the ball inside when a big is not open--turnover, or, if we get it inside, often the big tries to score despite being well covered--turnover or bad shot. Better to keep moving the ball. If you move the ball efficiently, and pass well, you will get good shots and you will have a good shooting percentage. The point is that you run the offense until somebody gets a good look--doesn't matter who; it's not 'we have to get the ball to Harrison at all costs and let's hope she can find a way to score.' That is not the way to play.

If I were Holly, I'd have Jones and Graves competing for the 4 spot right now. Jones should play closer to the basket; she might commit fewer turnovers and add more to our low-post offense--which we will need since Russell is out. Indeed, other than Harrison we have nobody who can score close to the basket--and I'm not talking putbacks. Jones, unlike Graves, has some offensive game and can shoot it some. At the 3 position, it would be nice to see some production from Tucker and/or Nared this year. Let's hope as the season unfolds that at least one of them shows out.

 

[Amb3096]

Scoring points does not make you, ipso facto, a good basketball player. Anybody can score points if they shoot the ball enough--and that was the problem with Simmons: her shooting percentage was not as high as it should be, and she never created good shots for others. As Volfan's numbers show, she was an /inefficient/ player--and inefficiency hurts you rather dramatically against good teams.

I'm not saying that it's great to score by being a volume shooter, but I will take the volume shooter with the low % any day over the "efficient player" who is afraid to shoot. What good is Carter's efficiency if she won't shoot the basketball? Someone has to score points.

ND and UConn are better than Tennessee because every player on the team takes the open shot when it presents itself. How many times did we see Carter, Graves, Burdick and Jones receive a pass and freeze for like 5 seconds while deciding if they should shoot the midrange/perimeter shot the defense was allowing, or pass it. It's like they play hot potato not because they are guarded, but because they don't want the ball in their hands.

Holly needs to get a good therapist on the bench.

 

[UCMiami]

New poster - first post - and yes I am a fan of Uconn. Find this board much more interesting than the last TN board I visited with interesting discussions like this one.
A couple of thoughts -
1. On turnovers - generally official scorers give a turnover to the player to last touch the ball whether they were ever in control of the ball or not. That tends to hurt post players more than guards as the post tends to be much more cluttered and the passes into the post more difficult. A bad pass that the post player cannot control or to a player being double or triple teamed is more likely to be stolen or lost out of bounds after the post has touched it.
2. On assists - yes a post gets an assist on a pass out to a shooter, but shooting percentages 15' and further from the basket are generally 30-50% worse than those 15' and closer so there is less chance of getting an assist on a pass out than on a pass in.
3. The stats in the OP are really interesting but because of #1 and #2 above I think the A/TO numbers are a little unfair to the post players. Not letting them off the hook completely, but guards and wings generally should have better numbers because of the position they play.
4. ND and Uconn were the only teams last year who shot better than 50% from the field. And it wasn't because they had the two best line-ups of shooters. They also were 1 and 2 in total assists and both were top 5 in A/TO ratio. Beyond transition offense, their set offenses worked on getting easy open shots by passing the ball well. And they didn't just take the first open shot - they worked to get the open shot at the exact spot on the floor that the shooter had practice shooting from in the flow they had practiced.
5. Good offense depends on spacing, orchestrated movement, screening, and good passing, and it depends on players doing repetitive actions that they have practiced ad infinitum. And good coaching instills those things in a team, and in identifying players strengths and designing the offensive flow to put each of them in position to play to those strengths and succeed. Women's basketball always has a few players that have the ability to score one on one but they are pretty rare and their teams are seldom successful unless they are able to add that skill within a good offensive system with good teammates.

I didn't watch a lot of Vols basketball last year but what I did see wasn't very inspiring - the offensive sets just didn't have flow - spacing broke down, a pass into the a post wasn't followed by players moving to open spots to provide a good option for a pass back out, not a lot of purposeful movement or ball reversals and too much dribbling around. Individual players would make great plays, but in general the offense was not challenging/stressing the defense or giving them a chance to make 'mistakes'. (I think that has been true of TN offense for a number of years.) The challenge for TN coaching is to change that - they have the talent to work with.

Just an aside - I watched Graves on the USA team two summers ago and was really impressed - she was easily one of the top 4 players on that squad - strong, smart. I know she was injured some last year, but I was really depressed watching her play for TN - she just looked frustrated and at times like she was so frustrated she almost gave up.