An Experiment: Part I

What will our final 2019 record be?

  • 1-11

    Votes: 12 5.0%

  • 2-10

    Votes: 47 19.5%

  • 3-9

    Votes: 74 30.7%

  • 4-8

    Votes: 59 24.5%

  • 5-7

    Votes: 30 12.4%

  • 6-6

    Votes: 15 6.2%

  • 7-5

    Votes: 1 0.4%

  • 8-4

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 9-3

    Votes: 3 1.2%
  • Total voters
    241
  • Poll closed .
#1
mrmax86

mrmax86

Fight. Strain. Compete.
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#1
I've listed every possible record that we can have at the end of the regular season (bowl excluded). I would like to see if we, the populous, can predict our actual record. Have you ever seen the episode of Brain Games where a group of 20 people predicted the number of gumballs in a machine within 22 gumballs? There were over 2000.

I figure if we apply this to our record, then all the varying positive and negative opinions on this board, will average out at our likely record.

Please respond to the poll above, and I will average them all together after 1 week.

 
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#4
#4
historically, at the end of the season, we have had 4 games we're favored in, and many people on the board would be claiming that we will win them all. At that point, I point out that even if we are favored in all 4 games, statistically we will likely lose at least one of those games. To which i get responses of 'you're crazy that we could lose to Vandy' etc.

This time around, we are going to be big underdogs in almost every game. but, i finally get to be on the other side of the coin, if you will. Even if we are underdogs to Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina, we will still be likely to win at least 1 out of that group of 3 together. same thing goes when you combine Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Missouri. Yea, we will be huge underdogs in those games, but taken as a group, there is a good chance, maybe 40 to 50% that we can win at least 1.

I know many will disagree with this, so a helpful analogy is basketball free throws. say you're a 70% free throw shooter. You are 70% every time you shoot. But, when you shoot 4 free throws, you only have a 25% chance of hitting all 4 of them. or in this case, you are only a 25% free throw shooter. If you shoot 4 though, you are more likely than not to hit at least 1

Or, another helpful analogy. We will be huge underdogs to Alabama. But, what are the chances that we will beat Alabama in at least 1 of the 4 quarters in the game? there's a much better chance of just winning at least 1 quarter against them (but still maybe less than 50%)
Now, just imagine instead of 4 quarters, you replace that with 4 games. I dont know which of the 4 games we will pick off, but probability tells me that we will likely get at least 1 of them.

That's why I'm going with 4-8. We get UAB, at least 1 of SC, Vandy, or KY, and at least 1 of AL, UGA, Miss ST. or Missouri. and, if that happens, this fanbase will be elated, and things will be 'looking' like we are improving.
 
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#6
#6
goldvol said:
historically, at the end of the season, we will have 4 games we're favored in, and many people on the board will be claiming that we will win them all. At that point, I point out that even if we are favored in all 4 games, statistically we will likely loos at least one of those games. To which i get responses of 'you're crazy that we could lose to Vandy' etc.

This time around, we are going to be big underdogs in almost every game. but, i finally get to be on the other side of the coin, if you will. even if we are underdogs to Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina, we will still be likely to win at least 1 out of that group of 3 together. same thing goes when you combine Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Missouri. Yea, we will be huge underdogs in those games, but taken as a group, there is a good chance, maybe 40 to 50% that we can win at least 1.

I know many will disagree with this, so a helpful analogy is basketball free throws. say you're a 70% free throw shooter. You are 70% every time you shoot. But, when you shoot 4 free throws, you only have a 25% chance of hitting all 4 of them.

Or, another helpful analogy. We will be huge underdogs to Alabama. But, what are the chances that we will beat Alabama in at least one of the 4 quarters in the game? there's a much better chance of just winning one quarter against them (but still maybe less than 50%)
Now, just imagine instead of 4 quarters, you replace that with 4 games. I dont know which of the 4 games we will pick off, but probability tells me that we will likely get one of them.

That's why I'm going with 4-8. We get UAB, 1 of SC, Vandy, or KY, and 1 of AL, UGA, Miss ST. or Missouri. and, if that happens, this fanbase will be elated, and things will be 'looking' like we are improving.
Click to expand...
I'd be shocked if the Vols are favored in any of the games outside of UAB (and that game worries me, they have a competent HC).
 
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#7
#7
YankeeVol said:
I'd be shocked if the Vols are favored in any of the games outside of UAB (and that game worries me, they have a competent HC).
Click to expand...

That line is talking about seasons past. I wasnt referring to this season

This time around, we are going to be big underdogs in almost every game.
even if we are underdogs to Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina ....
we will be huge underdogs in those games ...
Click to expand...
 
#11
#11
I am assuming that the Qb questions get answered after the Bummer game. Then maybe we can to 4 wins against UAB, Kensucky, and Vandy. BUT, the play-calling will have to change dramatically if Mauer is the starter with way more read option and RPO's than we are currently running.
 
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#13
#13
GAVol said:
I keep telling myself that if we can just get through Alabama week, some these young guys will turn the corner and contribute against SC, UAB, Mizzou, UK and Vandy.
Click to expand...
41nvkwg1GCL.jpg
 
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#15
#15
My guess is that after the meat grinders of GA and Alabubba, Maurer gets the nod to start. As long as injuries dont decimate us, we should keep improving bit by bit from there and beat someone unexpected. That gives us probably 4 wins on the year by beating 2 of 3 Vandy, KY and SCar plus UAB. That is very doable and winning all of those with 5 wins total is at least possible if we can actually start to gel a bit. I dont know if any gelling is happening under JG tho. Seems more like coagulating.
 
#16
#16
I got to go 1-11.

This team hasn’t shown a lot of fight and all I keep hearing is how young they are.

Well youth leads to mental mistakes and has the potential to give up if they really “don’t know how to win”.
 
#17
#17
I think we beat UAB in a close game.

Aside from that, I don't see another win on our schedule.
 
#20
#20
I'll go for 4-8. But then again, I thought we'd be 8-4 this year. We beat SC, Vandy, and UAB.
 
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