All things STOCKS

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Thunder Good-Oil

Thunder Good-Oil

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OldandStillaVol said:
Thanks. What is a typical priced earnings?
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It varies by industry. Banks might normalize in the single digits. The S&P 500 is about 20x historically, but might be nearly twice that right now.

Low interest rates can translate to higher PEs as investors chase better returns than owning debt.

Young, growing companies have higher PEs.

Grill makers might be similar to consumer discretionary, light manufacturing, consumer staples, and/or durables like appliances (although Whirlpool has bought nearly every domestic based competitor).

50x is high, but most equity securities are right now as well. The revenue history might be a good metric as Weber isn’t a new company, just newly public. I’m not sure about the other… I didn’t drill down to find their brands.
 
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05_never_again

05_never_again

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#9,802
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It varies by industry. Banks might normalize in the single digits. The S&P 500 is about 20x historically, but might be nearly twice that right now.

Low interest rates can translate to higher PEs as investors chase better returns than owning debt.

Young, growing companies have higher PEs.

Grill makers might be similar to consumer discretionary, light manufacturing, consumer staples, and/or durables like appliances (although Whirlpool has bought nearly every domestic based competitor).

50x is high, but most equity securities are right now as well. The revenue history might be a good metric as Weber isn’t a new company, just newly public. I’m not sure about the other… I didn’t drill down to find their brands.
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Long-term average for the S&P is more like 15, but we also aren't anywhere near some kind of long-term average level of interest rates either. I'm not sure the average PE, at least in a vacuum, is the greatest valuation tool.
 
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#9,803
OldandStillaVol

OldandStillaVol

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#9,803
Good information.

I like Weber products but I think I’ll hold on buying stock and see how sales go for awhile. When I look at grills at places like Home Depot, it definitely seems like people are gravitating more toward higher end products.
 
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Thunder Good-Oil

Thunder Good-Oil

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05_never_again said:
Long-term average for the S&P is more like 15, but we also aren't anywhere near some kind of long-term average level of interest rates either. I'm not sure the average PE, at least in a vacuum, is the greatest valuation tool.
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I was using a “modern era” (since 1950) arithmetic mean P/E value, which is 19.8x.

There are a lot ways to look at it. The S&P 500 started being published in 1957. A predecessor 30 years earlier. But even with the 1957 starting point, the components could have been researched for many years leading up to 1957. Also, a “mean average” can be approached from various mathematical angles such as incorporating market capitalization weighting, price weighting, averaging an annual average versus using continuous dates as opposed to what the results were on December 31st, averaging individual company P/Es versus adding up total earnings and total stock prices. Also some calculations could add dividends back into the price component of the equation.

P/Es are most useful as a way to compare peers. But even that can be skewed by the accounting. No, P/E alone isn’t perfect. AMZN had a great 20 growth in share values while the P/E was in the shitter over the same time frame. I think that it would be pretty useful for grill manufacturers, but even with that fairly predictable business model, layering the COVID factor over it complicates it even more. A sales multiple (and sales growth measures) might be more useful and the debt ratio is highly relevant. Earnings these days are going to be goofy with any company. Also many companies have had to dilute their capital structure to raise cash to stay open.
 
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Carp

Carp

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#9,810
Go aeiou said:
Did you trade any while on vacation?
I suspect most people aren't making money in the down market for the last week.
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Nope. Haven't bought or sold in over 2 weeks. Too busy enjoying my vacation, but I did check on my long term investments every day just to see if there was any movement.

Not liking the market at the moment, plus I've been a little busy at work this week to make any trades.
 
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Orange_Vol1321

Orange_Vol1321

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Man, where did everyone go in here? Anyways. AMC daily at the support trendline bounce. Good place to jump in with shares or options here. The big move everyone has been talking about could be coming the closer it gets to that pinch point of the symmetrical triangle.

20210922_111942.jpg
 
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mrMet

mrMet

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#9,816
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Man, where did everyone go in here? Anyways. AMC daily at the support trendline bounce. Good place to jump in with shares or options here. The big move everyone has been talking about could be coming the closer it gets to that pinch point of the symmetrical triangle.

View attachment 396469
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The closer it gets to the end of the triangle, the smaller less violent the move will be
 
#9,819
Thunder Good-Oil

Thunder Good-Oil

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#9,819
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Man, where did everyone go in here? Anyways. AMC daily at the support trendline bounce. Good place to jump in with shares or options here. The big move everyone has been talking about could be coming the closer it gets to that pinch point of the symmetrical triangle.

View attachment 396469
Click to expand...
Somebody at Morgan-Stanley published a report suggesting a 20% decline in the equity markets is in the works.

I bought HOOD 2 weeks ago when the possibility of the government interfering with payment for order routing was being considered and in the headlines. HOOD gets 75% of its revenue from those kickbacks. I took the 10%, 2-week gain and bailed out. I was very tempted to stay in with the RobinHood crypto wallets being announced for rollout in October. My feeling is that I should have held out another day or two… but pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. I might jump back in to HOOD if they give back a big chunk of the 10% gain in the next week or two.

I still own a little VIRT (Virtu Financial) which is also heavily involved with payment for order routing (but not 75% of their revenue like HOOD).
 
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Orange_Vol1321

Orange_Vol1321

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#9,820
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Somebody at Morgan-Stanley published a report suggesting a 20% decline in the equity markets is in the works.

I bought HOOD 2 weeks ago when the possibility of the government interfering with payment for order routing was being considered and in the headlines. HOOD gets 75% of its revenue from those kickbacks. I took the 10%, 2-week gain and bailed out. I was very tempted to stay in with the RobinHood crypto wallets being announced for rollout in October. My feeling is that I should have held out another day or two… but pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. I might jump back in to HOOD if they give back a big chunk of the 10% gain in the next week or two.

I still own a little VIRT (Virtu Financual) which is also heavily involved with payment for order routing (but not 75% of their revenue like HOOD).
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The markets will definitely correct when the FED starts tapering. Besides that November usually starts turning red and continues through December for the capital gains tax purposes.

Watch SAVA. It has phase 3 data any day now on its alzheimers drug and also has a gap to fill back up back to $120
 
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