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BigOrangeMojo

The Member in Miss December
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Took an extremely small position in CAKE (Cheesecake Factory) at $21.35 based on 7 year old daughter's recommendation. She's got interested in watching the stock tickers each morning once she wakes up.

Edit - I dont dislike her pick. I think it has similar risk/reward profile as BLMN; however, I'd choose BLMN since it has less mall exposure
Before people put too much stock in ARK's performance last year, the little one has another tripling with CAKE results this morning...
 
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I see several work-from-home/pandemic favorites are getting blasted this morning. CTXS, TDOC, PTON, DOCU, ZM. Might be a bit early to declare the pandemic is behind us, but they were all most likely way overvalued (and could still be).
 

BigOrangeMojo

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I see several work-from-home/pandemic favorites are getting blasted this morning. CTXS, TDOC, PTON, DOCU, ZM. Might be a bit early to declare the pandemic is behind us, but they were all most likely way overvalued (and could still be).
I actually don't view CTXS as a "work from home" stock and actually think it might be a decent value at this price. It's at the same level today as January 2020. (I likely will buy some today)

TDOC is interesting at this level (I did buy some at $168 this morning). Competition worries me here.

I think ZM and DOCU are OK at the right levels. Not enough of a pullback this morning for me to pull trigger.

I have no idea how a dadgum treadmill company could be worth what PTON is worth.
 
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I actually don't view CTXS as a "work from home" stock and actually think it might be a decent value at this price. It's at the same level today as January 2020. (I likely will buy some today)

TDOC is interesting at this level (I did buy some at $168 this morning). Competition worries me here.

I think ZM and DOCU are OK at the right levels. Not enough of a pullback this morning for me to pull trigger.

I have no idea how a dadgum treadmill company could be worth what PTON is worth.
Good point. Citrix was around long before the pandemic. And TDOC isn’t necessarily “work” from home. I’m kind of lumping work-from-home, staying home, telecommuting, etc into the same trend.

I haven’t looked closely at any of those. They were just the dogs of a watch list that I have set up.

I think that all 5 got way ahead of their values driven by the COVID. IIRC, TDOC is way off of the 52 wk high. It seems like a really good long term business model. I hope the lawyers won’t ruin it after some misdiagnosed conditions. There are some limitations with doctoring via video rather than in-person.

PTON will need to keep growing subs. I’m skeptical. ZM could easily be bullied out of business by the high tech giants (TDOC isn’t immune either).

I’ve used DOCU and I’m not a fan. I suppose that they could do well in certain industries (law practices especially) but will need much help from law makers. I think that TN still needs original signatures on a lot of docs.
 

BigOrangeMojo

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Good point. Citrix was around long before the pandemic. And TDOC isn’t necessarily “work” from home. I’m kind of lumping work-from-home, staying home, telecommuting, etc into the same trend.

I haven’t looked closely at any of those. They were just the dogs of a watch list that I have set up.

I think that all 5 got way ahead of their values driven by the COVID. IIRC, TDOC is way off of the 52 wk high. It seems like a really good long term business model. I hope the lawyers won’t ruin it after some misdiagnosed conditions. There are some limitations with doctoring via video rather than in-person.

PTON will need to keep growing subs. I’m skeptical. ZM could easily be bullied out of business by the high tech giants (TDOC isn’t immune either).

I’ve used DOCU and I’m not a fan. I suppose that they could do well in certain industries (law practices especially) but will need much help from law makers. I think that TN still needs original signatures on a lot of docs.
I think ZM and DOCU are good companies. I held them in 2019. With all that being said, ZM isn't a $600 stock and DOCU isn't a $275 stock. I like ZM at this level more than I like DOCU at this level.

PTON will likely be one of those stocks that I never own. I just don't see it. I never saw the value in Netflix either so....

I like TDOC as a long term play. I like ISRG as well. Think that's the direction of healthcare in the future.
 
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I think ZM and DOCU are good companies. I held them in 2019. With all that being said, ZM isn't a $600 stock and DOCU isn't a $275 stock. I like ZM at this level more than I like DOCU at this level.

PTON will likely be one of those stocks that I never own. I just don't see it. I never saw the value in Netflix either so....

I like TDOC as a long term play. I like ISRG as well. Think that's the direction of healthcare in the future.
Without digging in to the Zoom financials, a $100 billion market cap just seems crazy. Also the 100x plus p/e. Seems like they’d be highly profitable in the pandemic, but maybe they’ve been investing heavily in infrastructure.

DOCU is similar. $50 billion market cap and even less profitable. Both just seem about a decade overbought to me. But innovative management that executes is what’s most important. Netflix used to mail out DVDs to subscribers. Amazon used to sell books over the internet. Microsoft got a contract to write an OS for IBM (and outsmarted them by owning the DOS IP. Their leaders knew how to grow their companies horizontally as well as vertically.
 

Go aeiou

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ISRG resembles old school IBM. Getting the da Vinci systems installed like IBM did with their mainframes and then have the long term revenue stream from maintenance, training, and consulting contracts.
I've owned isrg for quite a while, but things change so fast these days. Their technology might be obsolete in 3-5 years. They also have competition now.
Robotic surgery:):):).
 

Go aeiou

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I'll be buying CLX at $160 + -. It's still too expensive. Also still a good long term hold, especially when there's inflation. Own things people have to have. I.e. garbage bags.
 
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I'll be buying CLX at $160 + -. It's still too expensive. Also still a good long term hold, especially when there's inflation. Own things people have to have. I.e. garbage bags.
I expect my Waste Managrment (WM) to do well for decades to come. But it has about a 40x multiple right now so I’m not adding to that position.

I’ve got a buy set on CLX at $125 but that’s just to keep an eye on it on my order list. I’ll raise the limit when I’m ready to buy. Current p/e is 25x and dividend is 2.4%.
 

Go aeiou

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I expect my Waste Managrment (WM) to do well for decades to come. But it has about a 40x multiple right now so I’m not adding to that position.

I’ve got a buy set on CLX at $125 but that’s just to keep an eye on it on my order list. I’ll raise the limit when I’m ready to buy. Current p/e is 25x and dividend is 2.4%.
They have a lot of products besides bleach and wipes so the end of covid(hopefully) won't kill their business. Uh, bad choice of words.
WM and many other blue chips are probably overpriced now. Almost everything seems that way to me.
OTOH WM is another one of those stocks that should do well with inflation. Businesses and homes can only let garbage pile up so long.
 
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They have a lot of products besides bleach and wipes so the end of covid(hopefully) won't kill their business. Uh, bad choice of words.
WM and many other blue chips are probably overpriced now. Almost everything seems that way to me.
OTOH WM is another one of those stocks that should do well with inflation. Businesses and homes can only let garbage pile up so long.
Everything is kind of expensive. I tried to buy Intel (INTC) today but was too late to enter an order close to the day’s low. Maybe it will drop another 1-2% on a bad market day. Today was another good day for the longs.

I also have Stericycle. I kind of wish that WM would buy them, but the regulators won’t like that.
 

mrorange211

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Everything is kind of expensive. I tried to buy Intel (INTC) today but was too late to enter an order close to the day’s low. Maybe it will drop another 1-2% on a bad market day. Today was another good day for the longs.

I also have Stericycle. I kind of wish that WM would buy them, but the regulators won’t like that.
It's why I've been playing more calls and puts because in this market I think shares are too overvalued rn. Once the correction happens, I'm gonna hop more into shares.
 
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TDOC is one of those stocks that I kick myself about. My employer was ahead of the curve on offering their services and I thought "man, this is revolutionary. I should invest." I think the stock was around $60 at that time, but I didn't pull the trigger.

Now it's hard to justify - I believe their "moat" gets more shallow by the day.
 
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It's why I've been playing more calls and puts because in this market I think shares are too overvalued rn. Once the correction happens, I'm gonna hop more into shares.
I’m probably going to be selling calls against what I’m holding. I think the run up will be slowing down for a year or more. The only thing that’s held me back is that the prices haven’t been very attractive relative to the potential loss of gains. I also don’t know how far out to ideally set the dates. They’ve always looked expensive (actually “inexpensive”) to me and I haven’t bothered.
 

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