OrangeEtBlanc
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Something I'd like to try to do every week moving forward as long as we are in the playoff hunt is to assess the current state of the race for the CFP, focusing particularly on the remaining schedule of teams that are CFP contenders. With only 3 games played, the playoff picture is still wide-open, but there are predictions and projections we can make from the available data.
Our lost to Georgia was a tough one, not just because of failing to break the streak, but because it made the path to the playoff much, much harder. We now need to win 2/3 against Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma (while winning the rest) to make the playoff. Depending upon how those teams do the rest of the season, even going 2/3 might not be good enough. The Georgia loss may have cost us any breathing-room we could have needed.
SEC Ranked teams remaining schedules (against ranked teams):
(2-1) Tennessee: @Alabama, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt (3)
(3-0) Ole Miss: LSU, @Georgia, @Oklahoma (3)
(2-1) Texas: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, @Georgia, Texas A&M (4)
(3-0) Texas A&M: Auburn, @lsu, @Missouri, @Texas (4)
(3-0) Georgia: Alabama, @Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas, @Georgia Tech (5)
(3-0) LSU: @Ole Miss, @Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Oklahoma (5)
(3-0) Missouri: Alabama, @Auburn, @Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @Oklahoma (5)
(3-0) Vanderbilt: @Alabama, LSU, Missouri, @Texas, Auburn, @tennessee (6)
(3-0) Auburn: @Oklahoma, @Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, @Vanderbilt, Alabama (6)
(3-0) Oklahoma: Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, @tennessee, @Alabama, Missouri, LSU (7)
(2-1) Alabama: @Georgia, Vanderbilt, @Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, @Auburn (7)
Florida looks lost and South Carolina without Sellers for an extended time may be dead in the water. Mississippi State could be a tough-out, but that is left TBD. Arkansas played Ole Miss tough and had a shot at the end, so they could still be formidable. Kentucky looks anemic on offense will probably be the worst team in the league. For assessment purposes, I have excluded these teams, though they obviously could still make a significant impact on the CFP race.
As it stands now, we have the easiest path to the playoff with only 3 currently ranked opponents remaining. However, our easier schedule could be what keeps us out of the playoffs if there are a cluster of 11-1, 10-2 SEC teams at the end of the season. Teams that played a more difficult schedule with the same record (or even 1 less loss) as us could leapfrog us.
I would argue there are 4, possibly 5 SEC slots up for grabs.
BIG: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Ilinois/Indiana/USC (4)
Big 12: Iowa State? Texas Tech? (1)
ACC: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech? (1-2)
G5: ??? (1)
SEC: (4-5 schools)
And we have to consider the inclusion of Notre Dame if they win-out and go 10-2.
Of course, it's too early to tell too much right now, but even at this point the playoff picture is starting to take shape. With our relatively easier schedule, a 2nd loss could doom us.
Our lost to Georgia was a tough one, not just because of failing to break the streak, but because it made the path to the playoff much, much harder. We now need to win 2/3 against Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma (while winning the rest) to make the playoff. Depending upon how those teams do the rest of the season, even going 2/3 might not be good enough. The Georgia loss may have cost us any breathing-room we could have needed.
SEC Ranked teams remaining schedules (against ranked teams):
(2-1) Tennessee: @Alabama, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt (3)
(3-0) Ole Miss: LSU, @Georgia, @Oklahoma (3)
(2-1) Texas: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, @Georgia, Texas A&M (4)
(3-0) Texas A&M: Auburn, @lsu, @Missouri, @Texas (4)
(3-0) Georgia: Alabama, @Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas, @Georgia Tech (5)
(3-0) LSU: @Ole Miss, @Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @Alabama, @Oklahoma (5)
(3-0) Missouri: Alabama, @Auburn, @Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, @Oklahoma (5)
(3-0) Vanderbilt: @Alabama, LSU, Missouri, @Texas, Auburn, @tennessee (6)
(3-0) Auburn: @Oklahoma, @Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, @Vanderbilt, Alabama (6)
(3-0) Oklahoma: Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, @tennessee, @Alabama, Missouri, LSU (7)
(2-1) Alabama: @Georgia, Vanderbilt, @Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, @Auburn (7)
Florida looks lost and South Carolina without Sellers for an extended time may be dead in the water. Mississippi State could be a tough-out, but that is left TBD. Arkansas played Ole Miss tough and had a shot at the end, so they could still be formidable. Kentucky looks anemic on offense will probably be the worst team in the league. For assessment purposes, I have excluded these teams, though they obviously could still make a significant impact on the CFP race.
As it stands now, we have the easiest path to the playoff with only 3 currently ranked opponents remaining. However, our easier schedule could be what keeps us out of the playoffs if there are a cluster of 11-1, 10-2 SEC teams at the end of the season. Teams that played a more difficult schedule with the same record (or even 1 less loss) as us could leapfrog us.
I would argue there are 4, possibly 5 SEC slots up for grabs.
BIG: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Ilinois/Indiana/USC (4)
Big 12: Iowa State? Texas Tech? (1)
ACC: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech? (1-2)
G5: ??? (1)
SEC: (4-5 schools)
And we have to consider the inclusion of Notre Dame if they win-out and go 10-2.
Of course, it's too early to tell too much right now, but even at this point the playoff picture is starting to take shape. With our relatively easier schedule, a 2nd loss could doom us.
men are so negative
