A Post-Spring Analysis

#1

UTGhostHunter

Amatuer Analyst
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#1
This is from my personal SEC blog. I'll be happy to share the address if anyone asks, but otherwise I'm just going to post this one topic from my blog because I thought some people here on Volnation might be interested. Like or troll it; that's up to you. I put it out here, so I'm prepare for either :dunno:



Why Tennessee is a Legitimate Player in the SEC East

I’m a Tennessee fan. There, I said it. I’m possibly biased and I definitely like Tennessee a little better than other analysts do. That said, I also spend a great deal more time analyzing Tennessee, making sure I not only know the roster inside and out, but that I’m familiar with the stats, system, and coaches. Could I be letting my biased sway me? Sure, but I don’t believe that I am.

Let’s start where everyone else in the country is: spring football. Like every other team in the country, the Vols have wrapped up their spring camp. Every team in the SEC wrapped up their spring with a spring game. First and foremost, I want to acknowledge the fact that not all spring games are created equal. Some teams treat it like a glorified scrimmage, and others treat it like a full game. The format of the spring game can have a huge effect on the statistics coming out of the game. That said, I want to post a few of the spring game stats, to provide a little perspective on where the Vols seem to stand offensively. The leaders of the statistical pack were the Crimson Tide, who racked up 933 all-purpose yards. Next was Arkansas with 877, followed by the Bayou Bengals with 797. Then came the Vols with 759, then Mississippi State with 713, and the Gamecocks with 676. These teams mostly treat the spring finale as a full-on game, though sometimes its a jumble of players, sometimes its ones-on-ones, and sometimes its ones-on-twos. Depending on the format, the stats can differ, but Tennessee put ones-on-ones and twos-on-twos, so their stats should be fairly representative of a game time situation. These stats are somewhat meaningless, but it shows that Tennessee may have the most explosive offense in the East, and the fact that the most athletic member of their receiving corps didn’t participate while several other potential key performers were still un-enrolled seems to indicate strong potential.

Tennessee may have the best size-to-athleticism ratio of any group of receivers in the SEC. Justin Hunter is a nationally competitive long jumper, Da’Rick Rogers is the sort of receiver who does it all, and newcomer Cordarelle Patterson is an explosive deep threat. The best part about the three of them is not one of them stands under 6’3”. With several freshman receivers also joining the team, each with high athleticism, Tyler Bray won’t be lacking in targets. Even the tight ends are solid, with Mychal Rivera providing a steady receiver with size, and second-stringer Cam Clear providing the largest target in the conference (6’6”, 283).

Tennessee finally has bodies at the running back position and the backs began to perform well in the spring. That hadn’t been the case before, but now Marlin Lane, Rajion Neal, and Devrin Young have all had chances to shine this spring, and there is an opportunity for even more production with the lightning-fast Quenshaun Watson and the do-everything Davante Bourque joining the team this summer. Tom Smith and Alden Hill have shown flashes of being strong power backs as well.

This is the most experienced offensive line in the SEC. The Vols offensive line consists of 99 total starts, and there are several newcomers who are pushing for time as well. The newly added offensive line coach Sam Pittman has brought a new attitude to the line, and they no longer appear willing to accept a passive approach.

The new defensive scheme isn’t perfect (yet), but there were pieces missing that are expected to contribute. Prentiss Waggner wasn’t healthy, Curt Maggitt was sitting out, and players like Daniel McCullers haven’t enrolled yet. This left the Vols inserting a system that wasn’t getting contributions from some of the expected contributors. That should be corrected by this summer, which will give Tennessee a chance to really see what this defense can be.

This is the deepest team that Derek Dooley has had at Tennessee. Hell, as a head coach, he’s never had a team that was this deep. If he can’t make headway this season, he never will. There are some difficult games on the schedule, but there are a lot of home contests which should give the Vols a chance to take advantage of the home crowd, score early, get them involved, and prevent a comeback. There are no more excuses for failure.

Kicking and punting are issues, but help may be on the way. True freshman George Bullock is a talented kicker with a cannon leg. If he can step on campus and provide some boom in the kicking and/or punting game, that will help the Vols win the field position game and gain some consistency on field goals, which hasn’t been present since Britton Colquitt and James Wilhoit were filling the roles.

Although there are shortcomings in the kicking game, the returns should be the best they’ve been in years. In the spring game, Devrin Young and Marlin Lane combined for 163 kick return yards, showing how explosive the return game can be. Devrin Young provided a sampling last season of his talent. Cordarrelle Patterson is an exceptional kick returner too.

Georgia and South Carolina are the teams to beat in the SEC East, but after that, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, and Vanderbilt are all battling for positioning. Tennessee is at least on par with these programs, but in my opinion, they are the number three team in the East, and with a lucky win against Georgia or South Carolina, or maybe a huge victory over Alabama, the Vols can prove to be amongst the top teams in the SEC overall. The time for excuses is gone, and the Vols better do it now or Dooley will have to enjoy his severance pay.
 
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#2
#2
2 things- we still don't have a senior class that can provide any real contribution except Rivera, and I think people r really overlooking florida. But i agree with most of what u had to say.
 
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#4
#4
I want to know who the skill position guys at Florida are. No one has stepped up at wideout (I know Burton looked solid in spring ball, but he hasn't before), and the running backs are a mess. They still haven't settled on a quarterback either. I like their offensive line and defensive talent, but I can't figure out who's gonna do the scoring. Heck, the scring in their spring game didn't even start until the defenses had worn down in the fourth quarter, which is just like last season. I'm not necessarily overlooking them; I just haven't liked what I've seen.
 
#6
#6
2 things- we still don't have a senior class that can provide any real contribution except Rivera, and I think people r really overlooking florida. But i agree with most of what u had to say.

One other thing; what about Prentiss Waggner, Dallas Thomas, Ben Bartholomew, Willie Bohannon, or Herman Lathers? They're seniors; don't they contribute? I think maybe you were talking about contributions from skill position players, but I just wanted to clarify.
 
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#8
#8
Florida's D is going to be one of the best in the SEC East. With that being said, they will be one of the most gassed defenses in the 4th simply because I think their offense is in shambles. Going to be a great matchup in Neyland,,a 3 quarter free for all,,but I just don't see UF's D finishing the game - UT 27 - UF 17.
 
#9
#9
One other thing; what about Prentiss Waggner, Dallas Thomas, Ben Bartholomew, Willie Bohannon, or Herman Lathers? They're seniors; don't they contribute? I think maybe you were talking about contributions from skill position players, but I just wanted to clarify.

U listed 5 guys and one is a fullback(that won't be used) atleast one other won't start, and there's almost no chance Lathers stays healthy through the season. Even if all did contribute, that's still a really small senior class. Floridas defense will win them games like ours used to.. They're stacked with talent.. Offense has talent that hasn't been tapped yet.. If they get the mental part down, they have enough talent on offense to move the chains. They're still Florida.. Check out their last 4 recruiting classes.. Talents not an issue on either side of the ball.
 
#10
#10
I want to know who the skill position guys at Florida are. No one has stepped up at wideout (I know Burton looked solid in spring ball, but he hasn't before), and the running backs are a mess. They still haven't settled on a quarterback either. I like their offensive line and defensive talent, but I can't figure out who's gonna do the scoring. Heck, the scring in their spring game didn't even start until the defenses had worn down in the fourth quarter, which is just like last season. I'm not necessarily overlooking them; I just haven't liked what I've seen.

They have a former #1 high school qb, a couple running backs we would've killed fr the last couple recruiting classes and a couple highly touted receivers that r veterans.. We saw how good their h-back/tight ends r..They put it together, and they could be dangerous... Especially with that big, fast oline.
 
#11
#11
I'm not saying that we can't/won't beat uf, i just can't believe that some of our fans r seriously overlooking them all of a sudden.. They didn't trade all of those 5* talents in for vandys roster in the offseason. They add talent to their roster just like we do... And lately, they've been better at it.
 
#12
#12
I'm not saying that we can't/won't beat uf, i just can't believe that some of our fans r seriously overlooking them all of a sudden.. They didn't trade all of those 5* talents in for vandys roster in the offseason. They add talent to their roster just like we do... And lately, they've been better at it.

And I don't question the presence of talent. I'm stating the fact that it is talent that hasn't yet translated into production. It certainly could. I will also add that I believe the road trip to College Station could take something out of them; 2,000+ miles of flying and time zone shifts can be disorienting, and at the skill positions for Florida, there will be a lot of freshmen and sophomores asked to contribute. Florida could beat us, but I believe they have a lot of potential disadvantages too. I go into a lot more detail on all the teams in the SEC at anothersec.tumblr.com. Check it out if you're interested.
 
#13
#13
I'm not saying that we can't/won't beat uf, i just can't believe that some of our fans r seriously overlooking them all of a sudden.. They didn't trade all of those 5* talents in for vandys roster in the offseason. They add talent to their roster just like we do... And lately, they've been better at it.

You are correct in that it would be a mistake to overlook UF. They have talent on both sides of the ball, more so on D. But on the other hand, UF's offense averaged 4 yards LESS per game in 2011 than UT's offense (http://statistics.ncaafootball.com/...tball&page=cfoot/stat/ncaa-team-totaloff.html)
With that being said, our offense pretty much sucked last year, but going by stats, and stats alone - UF sucked worse than UT at offense. Now that they have lost their 2 offensive weapons, Demps & Rainy, can't negate that point, my belief is that UF's offense will double suck this year, whereas I believe that UT's offense will be very solid this year.
Basically, Florida's offense, IMHO, will not be able to keep their great defense off the field. Game at Neyland this year,,,Dooley looking for a big win,,,I'm putting a couple of hundred on the Vols.
 
#14
#14
I think the OP analysis is very solid. Its accuracy will depend on many variables that won't become clear until November or even December.
 
#15
#15
Great read and THANKS for posting it.

I'm not overlooking floriDUHHH this year but I simply don't think they can stop our O or that the Gators can keep up with our scoring since our O should be a beast this year.

Tennessee...38
floriDUHHH...17

I actually believe that N C State is a more dangerous team but if we get the Win in HOTlanta our Vols should start 3-0 and that could get our confidence up and maybe get us on a really good roll provided they don't get overconfident and keep working hard every week.

Bray and our Vols haven't proven anything against a good SEC team...YET but this could be the year we make some noise in the SEC and maybe Win the SEC East if we stay healthy and get a little luck for a change.

VFL...GBO!!!
 
#17
#17
That's the way it is with the sound bye generation. No more reading for pleasure now. But yeah, Go Vols!


That's a major reason so many Americans are UNeducated about alot of things nowdays especially politics and how hard small business owners work to earn a good living and pay their employees good money too.

Sad that most people don't read and do solid research on many things to better educate themselves.

Sound byte generations is exactly right for the last 2 or 3 generations now as you aptly stated it.

VFL...GBO!!!
 
#18
#18
UTGhostHunter, first, thanks for taking the time providing the reading you did. Much of what you said pretty much echoes the bright-eyed and bushy-tailed posts we've seen lately here. All the same, I prefer reading positive outlooks like yours rather than than the constant barrage of negativism about our team and coach.

I hope I'm so wrong and so far off base you'd need the HST to spot me. But I think we're just an 8 win team this season due to lingering shortages in player personnel. However, if we remain healthy the only "lucky" win we'd have if we get it is against Bama. They're just too loaded. I think it'd be some trick to beat them. But everybody else, if we stay healthy we will be very much like the 1980 Cleveland Browns team which were known as the Kardiac Kids. Like them we'll be beatable but if you had your druthers, you'd rather not play us. It'll be a heck of a ride. And it will be our defense that makes or breaks us.
 
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#20
#20
Solid post, I agree with all that you said. Can't wait to the season to start and watch our vols beat some teams up! Go vols!
 
#21
#21
OP, I think it was a excellent analysis, bringing up points that I haven't seen anybody else make ... especially about the wr's and the OL.

My only quibble is that it ends with yet more of the "it's gonna be this season or else" pronouncements. I don't think that's for us to say. Dooley has done a lot already to bring this team back from a depleted mess, and sure we do need more W's, but I could see a possible scenario where he has us back competitive again with all of the biggest teams in the SEC ... but due to bad breaks, we could lose close games to those same teams. We have seen this before with game-ending officiating and with a few key injuries. Hopefully this won't happen and I am not predicting it will. But if it does, I think it would be a huge mistake to "fruit basket turnover" this program yet again.

But I think we will win more -- 8 at least --due to many of the points the OP makes.
 
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#23
#23
Your first paragraph after emphasizing the spring game mentions clear as the backup to Rivera..... I'd propose that Brendan downs made a case for that backup spot based on production in that game. That said, it does not mean that I dont hope clear develops and overtakes both. It's just that Rivera and downs are showing out right now, especially downs.

On defense I'd mention b Moore and dooley's statement about his cerebral play helping his improvement, and that Willie Bo and j Williams are about to pass Jacques if he doesn't start getting to the qb
 
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#24
#24
Everyone, OP included, keeps saying this is the deepest UT team we've had in a while. That may be true, but don't confuse it with having good SEC depth. We are still thin on talent in many, many areas. I like the first 22 guys we put out there, especially at the skill positions, but behind them it goes downhill fast. Because of that, I have a feeling we will have to go up big on teams in the first half, then survive the second half comebacks by many of the teams we play to win.
 
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#25
#25
Everyone, OP included, keeps saying this is the deepest UT team we've had in a while. That may be true, but don't confuse it with having good SEC depth. We are still thin on talent in many, many areas. I like the first 22 guys we put out there, especially at the skill positions, but behind them it goes downhill fast. Because of that, I have a feeling we will have to go up big on teams in the first half, then survive the second half comebacks by many of the teams we play to win.

These are my thoughts exactly. We need at least another year and maybe more to recruit the talent and depth to compete with the big boys. We are capable of pulling an upset or 2, but we could also be upset by a lesser team.

Many will not like what I say about this, but I don't believe Dooley has to win 8 to 9 games to stay. I think Hart knows more time is needed to build the roster and will give him time to do it, rather than turning the program upside down at this time. I can relate to the fans who want the turnover, but as long as Hart is in charge, he will do what he thinks it will take to be successful.
 

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