afvolunteer
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First a quick intro. I've lurked on this board for years, but am far and away a bigger Vols Hoops fan. I was on Scout's hoopsville for years and then 247 when they bought them out. Several months ago 247 killed their hoops only Vol chat, so I (and many others) left) and started our own smaller hoops chat. Not trying to compete here, so I won't post the link, but we get very little if any football discussion over there, so I've lurked on here more as the season has started. Anyway, I've got the same handle as I had on many old boards and I recognize several names on here as well. Hello/good to see you again/etc. For most of you who don't know me from the hoops boards, I'll just say that I tend to write very short posts (blue font)! Ok, on to my thread...
So I actually wrote this in response to one of the Dawg posters in another thread, but then it got long winded (as my posts do), so I felt it would get watered down with some the Dawg homers in that thread. One UGA fan in particular made a post about how they've only had to punt twice since Bennett has been under center, insinuating that their offense with him is unstoppable. That seemed odd to me so I checked it out, and here's what I found (and my original response):
Fake news alert!!
UGA has a dominating defense, and what I assumed was a slightly more ball control type offense, so even though Bennett hasn't played every possession, only 2 punts still seemed sketchy based on my hunch, so I looked it up. WRONG!
UGA has actually punted 3 times with Bennett under center. But once they also had a TO on downs going for it on 4th, and once a possession ended after UGA fumbled it after a caught pass. So by my math, that's basically 5 ~punts/TOs unless you're saying a TO or TO on downs is better than a punt? Anyway, I digress. When I took a bit of a closer look, this is what I saw.
Bennett has effectively played 16 possessions. Throwing out the victory formation at Auburn, that leaves 15. 5 times the possession ended in a punt or TO. 4 times it ended in a FG attempt. And 6 times possession ended in a TD. It's worth noting though that of those 6 TD drives, 3 started inside the opposing team's 50. So the TD drives consisted of 24, 43, 43, 72, 80, and 84 yard drives. That's a more macro view for those really wanting to talk football here...hopefully that provides some more context than "we only punted twice since Bennett's been on O!"
Now, how does that compare to JG, you ask? (not you XXXX, I'm talking to Vol fans now who actually want to talk football) JG has had 22 possessions, and 2 were victory formations. So 15 for Bennett and 20 for JG, so it's pretty easy to compare the two as just multiply any JG numbers by .75 and that gives you his equivalent rate in only 15 possessions. Here we go: 8 punts and 1 botched one, so 9 punts/TOs on downs for JG led drives. That's a bit worse than Bennett (6.75 vs 5). 3 FG attempts, so a bit less (2.25 vs 4). 8 TDs, so exactly the same as Bennett (6 and 6). I'd say here overall, the QBs are relatively even with Bennett getting the slight edge as FGAs are obviously better than punts/TOs. Drives ending in TDs or FGAs, Bennett's at about 66% to JG's 55%. From that view, I'd could see an argument that Bennett has a slightly bigger edge?
But look at the 8 TD drives from JG, compared to Bennett's. JG only had one short drive (after Theo Jackson's pick). That one was 47 yards, which actually would've been the 4th longest TD drive that Bennett has put together (out of his 6 total). Anyway, in order of JG TD drive lengths they were 47, 65, 74, 75, 75, 75, 90, and 92 yards. Those were some looong TD drives. Not expecting to be able to sustain those types of drives against UGA, but I just think it's important for context when comparing the QB play between the two. To compare them, Bennett's avg TD drive length was 57.7 yards. JG's avg TD drive length was 74.1 yards.
Now this doesn't really mean a ton other than UGA's offense seems to have much better starting position than we do, likely b/c their D is so elite (one was from blocked punt, one helped from an Auburn tgt'g penalty, but make no mistake their D starts this). That much I think we've suspected and those numbers above play that out. Secondly, those QB drives Bennett has put together look significantly less impressive to me now that I've looked a bit closer. His AVG length of a TD drive this year is damn near at midfield. I'd say most QBs should do decent given those scenarios. Third, our offense to this point seems at least as good if not better than UGA's. They've played Ark and Auburn, we've played USC and Mizzou....I think those seem like comparable defenses and we've actually scored more points and with significantly longer drives than UGA did (though that's not purely from the O of both teams). Now their offense may absolutely destroy us and put up a ton of points, but I just don't see it. Unfortunately, and lastly, their defense is insanely good. Their O doesn't even have to be good which is a problem. They darn near start at midfield and give up next to no points. Hard to beat a team playing like that. They've given up less than half the number of points we have, and I'm not sure I'd say Ark/Auburn is worse on O than USC/Mizzou, and in fact I'd think they're probably better.
In a nutshell, we've got to figure out a way to get some points against UGA to have a chance, shocking I know. I think the easiest way to do that is by keeping the game close and forcing Bennett to beat us. UGA's running backs, while good, don't scare me. UGA's QB doesn't scare me. UGA's O line doesn't even scare me. UGA's defense everywhere scares me though. If we go 3 and out a couple times, we give their O a short field, and we give them a huge advantage. Keeping this one close for a bit and bringing some blitzes (we've seen very few blitzes from Priutt thus far this year) while Bennett's dropping back to pass could lead to some TOs. This is only way I see us winning. If we give UGA much of a lead, they're going to be content to not take a ton of chances and force us to be the one to take the most shots, leading to potential TOs and then the game gets away real quick.
Our O line is stout, but UGA's front 7 looks insanely good. If we can actually pick up some early first downs by running the ball, whew boy I'm going to feel infinitely better about our chances. If the first few possessions though, we're behind the sticks early and JG's having to make 3d and longs to keep the drives going, I think it's gonna be a long day.
To wrap this diatribe up, the takeaway is, Dawg troll over here pumping himself up claiming UGA's only punted twice since Bennett's been in there....bull$hit!!!
So I actually wrote this in response to one of the Dawg posters in another thread, but then it got long winded (as my posts do), so I felt it would get watered down with some the Dawg homers in that thread. One UGA fan in particular made a post about how they've only had to punt twice since Bennett has been under center, insinuating that their offense with him is unstoppable. That seemed odd to me so I checked it out, and here's what I found (and my original response):
Fake news alert!!
UGA has a dominating defense, and what I assumed was a slightly more ball control type offense, so even though Bennett hasn't played every possession, only 2 punts still seemed sketchy based on my hunch, so I looked it up. WRONG!
UGA has actually punted 3 times with Bennett under center. But once they also had a TO on downs going for it on 4th, and once a possession ended after UGA fumbled it after a caught pass. So by my math, that's basically 5 ~punts/TOs unless you're saying a TO or TO on downs is better than a punt? Anyway, I digress. When I took a bit of a closer look, this is what I saw.
Bennett has effectively played 16 possessions. Throwing out the victory formation at Auburn, that leaves 15. 5 times the possession ended in a punt or TO. 4 times it ended in a FG attempt. And 6 times possession ended in a TD. It's worth noting though that of those 6 TD drives, 3 started inside the opposing team's 50. So the TD drives consisted of 24, 43, 43, 72, 80, and 84 yard drives. That's a more macro view for those really wanting to talk football here...hopefully that provides some more context than "we only punted twice since Bennett's been on O!"
Now, how does that compare to JG, you ask? (not you XXXX, I'm talking to Vol fans now who actually want to talk football) JG has had 22 possessions, and 2 were victory formations. So 15 for Bennett and 20 for JG, so it's pretty easy to compare the two as just multiply any JG numbers by .75 and that gives you his equivalent rate in only 15 possessions. Here we go: 8 punts and 1 botched one, so 9 punts/TOs on downs for JG led drives. That's a bit worse than Bennett (6.75 vs 5). 3 FG attempts, so a bit less (2.25 vs 4). 8 TDs, so exactly the same as Bennett (6 and 6). I'd say here overall, the QBs are relatively even with Bennett getting the slight edge as FGAs are obviously better than punts/TOs. Drives ending in TDs or FGAs, Bennett's at about 66% to JG's 55%. From that view, I'd could see an argument that Bennett has a slightly bigger edge?
But look at the 8 TD drives from JG, compared to Bennett's. JG only had one short drive (after Theo Jackson's pick). That one was 47 yards, which actually would've been the 4th longest TD drive that Bennett has put together (out of his 6 total). Anyway, in order of JG TD drive lengths they were 47, 65, 74, 75, 75, 75, 90, and 92 yards. Those were some looong TD drives. Not expecting to be able to sustain those types of drives against UGA, but I just think it's important for context when comparing the QB play between the two. To compare them, Bennett's avg TD drive length was 57.7 yards. JG's avg TD drive length was 74.1 yards.
Now this doesn't really mean a ton other than UGA's offense seems to have much better starting position than we do, likely b/c their D is so elite (one was from blocked punt, one helped from an Auburn tgt'g penalty, but make no mistake their D starts this). That much I think we've suspected and those numbers above play that out. Secondly, those QB drives Bennett has put together look significantly less impressive to me now that I've looked a bit closer. His AVG length of a TD drive this year is damn near at midfield. I'd say most QBs should do decent given those scenarios. Third, our offense to this point seems at least as good if not better than UGA's. They've played Ark and Auburn, we've played USC and Mizzou....I think those seem like comparable defenses and we've actually scored more points and with significantly longer drives than UGA did (though that's not purely from the O of both teams). Now their offense may absolutely destroy us and put up a ton of points, but I just don't see it. Unfortunately, and lastly, their defense is insanely good. Their O doesn't even have to be good which is a problem. They darn near start at midfield and give up next to no points. Hard to beat a team playing like that. They've given up less than half the number of points we have, and I'm not sure I'd say Ark/Auburn is worse on O than USC/Mizzou, and in fact I'd think they're probably better.
In a nutshell, we've got to figure out a way to get some points against UGA to have a chance, shocking I know. I think the easiest way to do that is by keeping the game close and forcing Bennett to beat us. UGA's running backs, while good, don't scare me. UGA's QB doesn't scare me. UGA's O line doesn't even scare me. UGA's defense everywhere scares me though. If we go 3 and out a couple times, we give their O a short field, and we give them a huge advantage. Keeping this one close for a bit and bringing some blitzes (we've seen very few blitzes from Priutt thus far this year) while Bennett's dropping back to pass could lead to some TOs. This is only way I see us winning. If we give UGA much of a lead, they're going to be content to not take a ton of chances and force us to be the one to take the most shots, leading to potential TOs and then the game gets away real quick.
Our O line is stout, but UGA's front 7 looks insanely good. If we can actually pick up some early first downs by running the ball, whew boy I'm going to feel infinitely better about our chances. If the first few possessions though, we're behind the sticks early and JG's having to make 3d and longs to keep the drives going, I think it's gonna be a long day.
To wrap this diatribe up, the takeaway is, Dawg troll over here pumping himself up claiming UGA's only punted twice since Bennett's been in there....bull$hit!!!
