8 of the last 10 SEC East champs have gone 7-1 or better in the SEC

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

2010 South Carolina
2007 Tennessee

That's it.

Going all the way back to 2006, those are the only teams to drop 2 games in conference and still make the SEC championship game. Everyone else has needed to go 7-1 or better to win the East.

So for everyone trying to downplay expectations by saying 10-2 is the goal, just realize you're essentially conceding the East with that prediction.

Because unless you think we're losing to Va-Tech, 2 losses in-conference will doom our chances to get to Atlanta.

11-1 is the benchmark. That will define whether this was a good season. Not 10-2.

 

[ToineMac]

This makes sense. I agree.

 

[Concept]

I've been saying the same, but as long as we beat both Florida and Georgia, we will have a sizable margin of error.

 

[Volador]

So then, all we have to do is win, right?

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Hmm...

'92 Florida (6-2)
'95 Arkansas (6-2)
'96 Alabama (6-2)
'97 Auburn (6-2)
'98 Mississippi State (6-2)
'00 Auburn (6-2)
'01 LSU (5-3) (won the SEC CG)
'02 Arkansas (5-3)
'03 Georgia (6-2)
'05 Georgia (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'07 Tennessee (6-2)
'07 LSU (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'10 South Carolina (5-3)

Getting to Atlanta with 2 or more losses ain't exactly rare. Half of the 24 SEC CGs since divisions were created had one or both of the teams with 2 or 3 conference losses. A few of them went on to win the championship.

It is fiction to say that you have to have 0 or 1 loss to get to Atlanta.

 

[PowerSweep]

In 4 other years the team that finished first in the east with 0 or 1 loss would have still won had they finished with 2 losses

So really it is 6 out of 10...not 2

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Hmm...

'92 Florida (6-2)
'95 Arkansas (6-2)
'96 Alabama (6-2)
'97 Auburn (6-2)
'98 Mississippi State (6-2)
'00 Auburn (6-2)
'01 LSU (5-3) (won the SEC CG)
'02 Arkansas (5-3)
'03 Georgia (6-2)
'05 Georgia (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'07 Tennessee (6-2)
'07 LSU (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'10 South Carolina (5-3)

Getting to Atlanta with 2 or more losses ain't exactly rare. Half of the 24 SEC CGs since divisions were created had one or both of the teams with 2 or 3 conference losses. A few of them went on to win the championship.

It is fiction to say that you have to have 0 or 1 loss to get to Atlanta.

In 4 other years the team that finished first in the east with 0 or 1 loss would have still won had they finished with 2 losses

So really it is 6 out of 10...not 2

You guys need to stop allowing truth to interfere with his narrative.

 

[checkerboards09]

How about another undefeated season so we don't have to worry about it?

 

[TheMookieMonster]

10-2 is still the floor. Not 11-1. That's a 2-game improvement and it's not anywhere near out of the realm of possibility to lose 2 conference games and win the East. With the exception of last year, the past decade has had a clear strong favorite in the East while the division has been weak.

If we beat Florida and Georgia, we could very easily lose to Alabama and A&M and still make the title game. And you would still consider that a failed season? Obviously, everyone here wants to see us go 11-1 and coast to Atlanta, but people are just realistic about our brutal 4-game stretch.

But, like I have said time and time again it all starts with the Florida game. Win that and we very easily could ride that momentum to a 3-1 stretch. Lose, and you could be setup for a disastrous 1-3 failure.

 

[Power T-Rev]

D4H never lets facts get in the way of a good argument

 

[Other_Guy]

2010 South Carolina
2007 Tennessee

That's it.

Going all the way back to 2006, those are the only teams to drop 2 games in conference and still make the SEC championship game. Everyone else has needed to go 7-1 or better to win the East.

So for everyone trying to downplay expectations by saying 10-2 is the goal, just realize you're essentially conceding the East with that prediction.

Because unless you think we're losing to Va-Tech, 2 losses in-conference will doom our chances to get to Atlanta.

11-1 is the benchmark. That will define whether this was a good season. Not 10-2.

Sorry bro, but Ill be ecstatic with 10-2 record. I don't remember what its like to be good.

 

[orangesince90]

If we don't get to 11-1 all that means is Dobbs couldn't figure out how to pass any better and falls in his lap.

 

[Evol]

I've been thinking about this for awhile. If we go 10-2, our losses would need to be from the west teams (Alabama and A&M) in order to have a realistic shot at winning the east.

That would mean we beat Florida and Georgia, and as long as they both lose at least 1 other conference game (very likely) we would all have 2 losses and UT holds he tiebreaker.

Going 10-2 with one of those losses to Georgia would be disastrous. We would need them to lose 3 conference games, and looking at their schedule I don't see that happening (assuming they were to beat us)

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Here's how easy it would be for a team in the East to go 5-3 in 2016 and still get to Atlanta.

---Vols (5-3): Florida (W) -- Georgia (L) -- A&M (L) -- Bama (L) -- USCe (W) -- Kentucky (W) -- Mizzou (W) -- Vandy (W)

---Gators (5-3): Kentucky (W) -- Tennessee (L) -- Vandy (W) -- LSU (L) -- Mizzou (L) -- Georgia (W) -- Arky (W) -- USCe (W)

---Dawgs (4-4): Mizzou (W) -- Ole Miss (L) -- Tennessee (W) -- USCe (L) -- Vandy (W) -- Florida (L) -- Kentucky (W) -- Auburn (L)

---Tigers (4-4): Georgia (L) -- LSU (L) -- Florida (W) -- Kentucky (W) -- USCe (L) -- Vandy (W) -- Tennessee (L) -- Arky (W)

---Gamecocks (3-5): Vandy (W) -- Miss St (L) -- Kentucky (L) -- A&M (L) -- Georgia (W) -- Tennessee (L) -- Mizzou (W) -- Florida (L)

---Wildcats (3-5): Florida (L) -- USCe (W) -- Bama (L) -- Vandy (W) -- Miss St (W) -- Mizzou (L) -- Georgia (L) -- Tennessee (L)

---Commodores (0-8): USCe (L) -- Florida (L) -- Kentucky (L) -- Georgia (L) -- Auburn (L) -- Mizzou (L) -- Ole Miss (L) -- Tennessee (L)

Note: this is entirely fictitious, though reasonable.
Note: I am not predicting these games. It's made up.
Note: I do not want the Vols to go 5-3 in SEC play; I'd like us to go 8-0.

Bottom line is, there are many roads to Atlanta. Saying we have to be on one particular road or our season is a failure, that's just wrong.

 

[JPL]

2010 South Carolina
2007 Tennessee

That's it.

Going all the way back to 2006, those are the only teams to drop 2 games in conference and still make the SEC championship game. Everyone else has needed to go 7-1 or better to win the East.

So for everyone trying to downplay expectations by saying 10-2 is the goal, just realize you're essentially conceding the East with that prediction.

Because unless you think we're losing to Va-Tech, 2 losses in-conference will doom our chances to get to Atlanta.

11-1 is the benchmark. That will define whether this was a good season. Not 10-2.

11-1 should be the benchmark and not 10-2:good!:

 

[UT-Rex]

Originally Posted by Dobbs 4 Heisman View Post

11-1 is the benchmark. That will define whether this was a good season. Not 10-2.

11-1 should be the benchmark and not 10-2:good!:

We could very likely go 11-1, with a loss only to FL b/c of another missed 54-yd fg and/or a last minute interception or RB fumble, or forbid, even a sack (possibly only 1 of 2 sacks for the remainder of the year) in the final minute -- and FL might go 11-1 with a loss only to LSU. What then?

 

[Jmyers1033]

I love that D4H started a thread and it blew up in his face and now hes nowhere to be seen.

 

[JohnnyBall]

Can't believe how easy 90% of the Fanbase thinks it's going to be to go into Athens and College Station and win both..got a little easier today maybe,don't hold your breath

 

[BaldBiker]

Can't believe how easy 90% of the Fanbase thinks it's going to be to go into Athens and College Station and win both..got a little easier today maybe,don't hold your breath

Those are the two games I'm most worried about this season. Back to back away games sandwiched between what is probably the most important game of the season (if we don't beat FL, we aren't going to ATL IMO) and Alabama.

Not taking anything away from Bama, they are always tough, but at least we have them at home this year and they lost a lot of experience.

 

[Aesius]

I love that D4H started a thread and it blew up in his face and now hes nowhere to be seen.

Don't worry. He'll pop up in another thread soon to call everyone idiots.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Hmm...

'92 Florida (6-2)
'95 Arkansas (6-2)
'96 Alabama (6-2)
'97 Auburn (6-2)
'98 Mississippi State (6-2)
'00 Auburn (6-2)
'01 LSU (5-3) (won the SEC CG)
'02 Arkansas (5-3)
'03 Georgia (6-2)
'05 Georgia (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'07 Tennessee (6-2)
'07 LSU (6-2) (won the SEC CG)
'10 South Carolina (5-3)

Getting to Atlanta with 2 or more losses ain't exactly rare. Half of the 24 SEC CGs since divisions were created had one or both of the teams with 2 or 3 conference losses. A few of them went on to win the championship.

It is fiction to say that you have to have 0 or 1 loss to get to Atlanta.

Notice the dropoff. It wasn't rare in the 90s and early 2000s.

Since 2005, it's only happened 3 times out of a possible 20 participants.

That's less than 20% of the time.

You want to take those odds?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I love that D4H started a thread and it blew up in his face and now hes nowhere to be seen.

Blew up how?

What I said is true. Someone brought up ancient history. In the last 10 years only 2 teams have won the East with 2 or more losses. 20%.

If we want to guarantee a spot at the SEC championship game we need to go 7-1 with that 1 loss coming to either A&M or Alabama.

Anything less and we dont control our own destiny.

 

[chargervol]

Notice the dropoff. It wasn't rare in the 90s and early 2000s.

Since 2005, it's only happened 3 times out of a possible 20 participants.

That's less than 20% of the time.

You want to take those odds?

That's because we dropped off the map.
It was almost completely two teams a year, the best dominated the division.
Surely even you notice the timing of our disappearance and the sudden change?
Ah, if you did, you wouldn't admit as much.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Blew up how?

What I said is true. Someone brought up ancient history. In the last 10 years only 2 teams have won the East with 2 or more losses. 20%.

If we want to guarantee a spot at the SEC championship game we need to go 7-1 with that 1 loss coming to either A&M or Alabama.

Anything less and we dont control our own destiny.

Ancient history? Twenty years is hardly ancient history in this context. The game has only existed since '92. How is the complete sample size not valid? What has changed that would force you to throw out the older data?

And, it was offered by another poster that while the winner lost only one game, in several instances, a second loss would not have impacted the outcome of the division winner. Are you just conveniently ignoring that fact?

 

[bamawriter]

If we want to guarantee a spot at the SEC championship game we need to go 7-1 with that 1 loss coming to either A&M or Alabama.

Anything less and we dont control our own destiny.

While that math is undeniably accurate, that doesn't change the fact that, in six of the ten years you mentioned in the OP, the SEC East Champ would have gone to Atlanta with 2 losses.