GetYouSomeofThat
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You picked 11 players over a 18 year time span to prove a point? Yes, if you only take 2 two stars in 18 years and they hit the percentage is higher. But, bowling green is where they are and bama is where they are because of the type of talent they get.I remember a few years ago, I ran the numbers for LSU players... percentage wise the 3 stars usually outperform the 5 stars.
- Jacob Hester 2-star Rivals (3rd round)
- Tyson Jackson 3-star Rivals (3rd overall pick 1st round)
- Brandon LaFell 3-star (3rd round)
- Kelvin Sheppard 3-star (3rd round)
- Bennie Logan 3-star (3rd round)
- Deion Jones 3-star (2nd round)
- Duke Riley 3-star (3rd round)
- DJ Clark 3-star (2nd round)
- Lloyd Cushenberry 2-star (3rd round)
- C. Edwards-Helaire 3-star (1st round/32 pick)
- Justin Jefferson 2-star (1st round/22 pick)
The percentage is much greater for the 2-stars that have panned out over 5-star guys at LSU. It depends on the evaluation. Basically, a guy like Cushenberry and Jefferson wouldn't even have a rating if LSU wouldn't have offered. Not sure those guys would have even gotten a commit-able offers.
Stars mean something, but sometimes they don't mean anything. I wouldn't get caught up in star glazing, although to be competitive at a high level... the school is going to have to average out top 10-15 for a 3-4 years.
You picked 11 players over a 18 year time span to prove a point? Yes, if you only take 2 two stars in 18 years and they hit the percentage is higher. But, bowling green is where they are and bama is where they are because of the type of talent they get.
You'd think so, considering the majority of division 1 athletes are rated 3*, but by contrast, there are thousands of 3*s each year with only a very small amount being rated a 5*. Only 34 footbal players were rated 5* for 2021 and 300+ 4* stars.Just a wild stab in the dark.............but I'd be willing to place a decent wager that % wise, more 3* pan out than 5*
Russell Wilson was a 2 star before starring at NC State and Wisconsin. Drafted in 2nd round.
I remember a few years ago, I ran the numbers for LSU players... percentage wise the 3 stars usually outperform the 5 stars.
- Justin Jefferson 2-star (1st round/22 pick)
The percentage is much greater for the 2-stars that have panned out over 5-star guys at LSU. It depends on the evaluation. Basically, a guy like Cushenberry and Jefferson wouldn't even have a rating if LSU wouldn't have offered. Not sure those guys would have even gotten a commit-able offers.
Stars mean something, but sometimes they don't mean anything. I wouldn't get caught up in star glazing, although to be competitive at a high level... the school is going to have to average out top 10-15 for a 3-4 years.
13 of 32 NFL First Round Draft picks in the 2021 draft were 3 star or below recruits.
Not the question. IIRC, about 60% of 5* guys will be drafted. Maybe more. That's good. But if you are depending on the recruiting sites as much as many do then you have to face the reality that over half of the NFL draft will be made up of guys who weren't given 4/5*.
But my question is how many of each group go on to have successful or even elite careers. Arian Foster had pretty good success after being a 3* and undrafted. The recruiting sites are reasonably accurate with the guys they choose to give 4/5* to. I've never disputed that even though they have a lot of misses in that group.... and UT has had a knack for finding the ones they were wrong about. My consistent point is that in the sea of 3* players... there are as many who end up "deserving" 5* as there are 5* awarded in any given year. Same or maybe more so with 4*,.
Something the recruiting gurus will never be able to measure...dedication, work ethic, heart and want to.Considering that many if not most of the NFL's best players do not come from the first day of the draft... it is likely that a pretty high percentage of the 3* draft picks are included.
Talent is talent. Talent is talent when the recruiting sites either notice it or recognize that Saban has noticed it. Talent is talent when a guy plays in obscurity on an 8 man team somewhere in western Nebraska. The idea isn't that the recruiting sites are unreasonably inaccurate with the guys they find and rate highly. The point is that for every player they find and rate highly... they miss one or two through no fault of their own.
Sometimes though as in the case of Cam Sutton... they just whiff. He played like a 5* talent from the moment he stepped on campus.
Something the recruiting gurus will never be able to measure...dedication, work ethic, heart and want to.
I mean is there really that big of a difference in a WR that runs a 4.4 and 4.7? Or one that can bench 225 15 times versus one who can do it 16 times?
I think once you get to the D1 level, you can throw the measurements out the window for the most part because they are all gifted athletically. IMO(which doesn’t mean much) the traits I listed earlier and what’s between the ears, separates the great from the good from the average.
GBO!!
It’s really not close at all. 60% or so of 5 stars get drafted, like 10% of 3 stars. I just looked and got tired of scrolling but on 247 I got to prospect number 1250 and stopped scrolling. The first 3 star was #364. So I scrolled 890 prospects that were all 3 star. Let’s assume I stopped at the perfect time and it was the last 3 star! There are 224 picks in each draft. Let’s just say fifteen 5* are drafted leaving 209 picks. And NO 4 stars are drafted. Even in that very conservative set. Five stars are at 50% and 3 stars are at 23%. And that’s assuming no four stars to.