Jnunn
Cautiously Pessimistic
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2013
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So I noticed a trend last year regarding Drew Lock. This is what I pointed out in a thread back in the summer:
"Just to drill down this point a little more I looked at his numbers minus Missouri State, Idaho and UConn. So only including Mizzou's 10 "real" opponents last year, Lock threw for 2,599 yards, 26 TD's and 11 Int's on 167 comps, 315 attempts with a completion percentage of 53%... Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. That includes four games of under 50% completion percentage and only two 300+ yard games. "
I wanted to do the same thing for this year. If you look at Lock's overall stats, they are impressive. 2647 yards, 21 td, 8 int, and a 62.5% completion percentage. All good numbers. But let's drill down and look at his stats versus Power 5 competition, so omitting the UT Martin, Wyoming and Memphis games. The numbers look like this:
144 Completions, 245 attempts, 1610 yards, 9 TD, 8 Int (!), 58.7% Completion.
Yikes. Those are even worse than his numbers against real competition in 2017. He has bounced back the last two weeks with 3 TD's against Florida and 2 TD's against Vanderbilt (but also 2 INT's), but overall this narrative that he is an amazing, stat-stuffing SEC QB is hyperinflated by Mizzou's annual pathetic non-conference scheduling. Those three non-Power 5 games, by the way, amount to 1037 of his yards and 12 (more than half) of his TD's.
For comparison's sake, I did the same thing with JG's numbers against Power 5 competition:
104 Completions, 165 attempts, 1274 yards, 9 TD, 2 Int, 63% Completion.
These numbers are with 5 common opponents played (UGA, USC, UF, Bama and UK), while our out of conference game was against a better team and defense (WVU vs. Purdue). That also doesn't take into consideration that Guarantano has played behind a much worse O Line and has spent half of his time on the field on his back.
Now I know stats are what you make them, but I wanted to do my part to dispel the Drew Lock hype. He may have all the physical tools, but he is inconsistent at best in Power 5 games. I have faith that with Pruitt leading this defense we will continue this trend for Lock..
"Just to drill down this point a little more I looked at his numbers minus Missouri State, Idaho and UConn. So only including Mizzou's 10 "real" opponents last year, Lock threw for 2,599 yards, 26 TD's and 11 Int's on 167 comps, 315 attempts with a completion percentage of 53%... Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. That includes four games of under 50% completion percentage and only two 300+ yard games. "
I wanted to do the same thing for this year. If you look at Lock's overall stats, they are impressive. 2647 yards, 21 td, 8 int, and a 62.5% completion percentage. All good numbers. But let's drill down and look at his stats versus Power 5 competition, so omitting the UT Martin, Wyoming and Memphis games. The numbers look like this:
144 Completions, 245 attempts, 1610 yards, 9 TD, 8 Int (!), 58.7% Completion.
Yikes. Those are even worse than his numbers against real competition in 2017. He has bounced back the last two weeks with 3 TD's against Florida and 2 TD's against Vanderbilt (but also 2 INT's), but overall this narrative that he is an amazing, stat-stuffing SEC QB is hyperinflated by Mizzou's annual pathetic non-conference scheduling. Those three non-Power 5 games, by the way, amount to 1037 of his yards and 12 (more than half) of his TD's.
For comparison's sake, I did the same thing with JG's numbers against Power 5 competition:
104 Completions, 165 attempts, 1274 yards, 9 TD, 2 Int, 63% Completion.
These numbers are with 5 common opponents played (UGA, USC, UF, Bama and UK), while our out of conference game was against a better team and defense (WVU vs. Purdue). That also doesn't take into consideration that Guarantano has played behind a much worse O Line and has spent half of his time on the field on his back.
Now I know stats are what you make them, but I wanted to do my part to dispel the Drew Lock hype. He may have all the physical tools, but he is inconsistent at best in Power 5 games. I have faith that with Pruitt leading this defense we will continue this trend for Lock..
