4 years ahead ? I would wager that it's much higher than recruits that commit the normal year or so ahead of actually signing.
I honestly don't know, and would be interested to hear if anyone remembers the names of any players who made super early commitments to one school and then ended up signing with another.
Kaela Davis is the only one I can remember off the top of my head. She committed to Tennessee in 2010 but changed her mind after Pat's diagnosis. I have often wondered if, in hindsight, she regretted the decision to forgo the opportunity to be a part of Pat's legacy.
I also remember being shocked when Diamond DeShields, whose picture as a toddler dressed as a Tennessee cheerleader was thought to foretell her future choice to attend her "longtime dream school," ended up at UNC instead. I don't think she'd ever committed to Tennessee, but it was certainly pretty much considered a sure thing.
Of course, she did end up transferring to Tennessee and then, in all likelihood, regretting the choice to play for Holly.
Ugh.