2022 NBA Draft and Offseason Thread

#1

n_huffhines

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#1
I haven't done much looking at the draft, but I have been paying attention to the guys everybody says are top 3. Assuming they all declare:

Banchero is probably who I take number 1. I doubt he'll bust and I think he's the most likely guy to be top dog on a contender. He can do some of everything and he's physically gifted. He's also been in the biggest moments of the 3 and he is clearly not afraid to be the guy.

Smith is probably the best shooter and athlete, and he has the highest floor. He's gonna be a great 2-way stretch 4. What he does inside the 3p line on offense doesn't impress me all that much. Might be due to Auburn's guards holding him back.

Holmgren is the potential unicorn of the group but he has the most bust potential. His stats are great. He can pass, shoot, show on screens, drop, rebound, etc. But his ability to hold up scares me. He gets a lot of blocks but college kids are not scared of him. They go right at him and I think that inflates his block stats. I know he'll put on weight but not sure it can be enough or that his body will hold up. His shoulders are so narrow.
 
#2

NashVol11

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#2
I know he was better in the tournament, but I’m not a big Banchero guy. He’s not much of a defender and gives me some Jabari Parker vibes, though I think he’ll be better than that. I don’t know enough about Smith from watching a couple of his games, but I probably take Holmgren 1; he has more tenacity and competitiveness than I think people realize as well.
 
#3

n_huffhines

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#3
I know he was better in the tournament, but I’m not a big Banchero guy. He’s not much of a defender and gives me some Jabari Parker vibes, though I think he’ll be better than that. I don’t know enough about Smith from watching a couple of his games, but I probably take Holmgren 1; he has more tenacity and competitiveness than I think people realize as well.
Parker had the heaviest feet + injuries. IDK if he'll stay healthy but PB can move.

We'll see how the measurements come out, but he's supposed to be 2" taller and looks to be way more explosive.
 
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#4

volnbama_

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#4
I don’t think any of the top 3 are going to be the best player on a contending team so this is a year It wouldn’t be bad picking 3rd and taking whoever is left between the 3. I personally favor Jabari Smith as my #1 prospect. I think he has the potential to be the running mate on a title contender with his versatility and scoring ability. But I’ve also seen more of his games than the other two players combined.
 
#5

n_huffhines

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#5
I don’t think any of the top 3 are going to be the best player on a contending team so this is a year It wouldn’t be bad picking 3rd and taking whoever is left between the 3. I personally favor Jabari Smith as my #1 prospect. I think he has the potential to be the running mate on a title contender with his versatility and scoring ability. But I’ve also seen more of his games than the other two players combined.
Most draft top 3's don't have that guy. KD and Lebron are the only active players that were drafted in the top 3 and were best player on a title team. I think Shaq and Tim Duncan are the only other ones in the last 30 years.
 
#6

NashVol11

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Most draft top 3's don't have that guy. KD and Lebron are the only active players that were drafted in the top 3 and were best player on a title team. I think Shaq and Tim Duncan are the only other ones in the last 30 years.
For a contending team the list is at least somewhat longer, including at least Harden and Tatum and arguably Luka and Ja as well
 
#7

n_huffhines

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#7
For a contending team the list is at least somewhat longer, including at least Harden and Tatum and arguably Luka and Ja as well
Yeah, making it just a contender lowers the bar a little bit.

Embiid (not Harden, IMO), Luka, and Tatum are the ones that feel fairly likely that they will be the best player on a title team. I wanna say Ja because I love him and his game is so nice, but there is not a strong history of small guards being the best player on a title team (3x in the modern era?). I also wonder how long his window is the way he plays recklessly. That being said, he's the type that could break that mold.
 
#8

n_huffhines

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#8
Jonathan Chark said of all the top 5 picked college players in the last 10 drafts, Jabari Smith has the lowest 2p FG%. Right now, it doesn't appear he's a player who can create a good shot for others or himself.

Also, Chark (who had Mobley at #1 last year) said if he redrafted 2021, he'd go Mobley, Barnes, and then Wagner.
 
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#9

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#9
Jonathan Chark said of all the top 5 picked college players in the last 10 drafts, Jabari Smith has the lowest 2p FG%. Right now, it doesn't appear he's a player who can create a good shot for others or himself.

Also, Chark (who had Mobley at #1 last year) said if he redrafted 2021, he'd go Mobley, Barnes, and then Wagner.
I can see that, but I love Giddey's game, that injury killed him when he just started getting comfortable and balling
 
#13

n_huffhines

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#13
KOC is saying what he gathers about Zion this year is that NOP is being super careful with Zion and refused to let him go to work if he didn't meet weight requirements/other bench marks coming off his injury. He wanted to just play.

He didn't meet the requirements and didn't handle it right, being aloof from the team. Now he's trying to be team spirit guy and it feels like they're gonna be OK going forward.
 
#14

n_huffhines

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#14
Rumor has it Gobert's going to issue the him or me ultimatum to Utah. I've got a lot of thoughts.

Gobert pros:
Most impactful defensive player in the league, and very effective offensive player...in the regular season. He has an endless motor, strong work ethic, and he has shown big improvement on perimeter D. He is one of the best floor-raisers in the NBA. I think he actually can be a top 2 player on a title team. Put him on the Mavs and they are very serious contenders.

Gobert cons:
Has looked silly in the playoffs on both ends of the floor. He's soft. Although I mostly blame Mitchell for not liking Gobert to the point that he doesn't pass to him, but you still gotta blame Gobert for not being likable. The contract is terrible.

Gobert excuses:
He looks silly on D because the Jazz perimeter D can't stop a nose bleed and he's gotta cover the corner 3 and the entire paint, which nobody can do. It's the same role that Time Lord and Giannis play, but it works for them because their perimeter players can funnel opponents towards the shot blocker. Jazz opponents go wherever they want. Gobert wouldn't disappear on offense with a quality setup guy, which Mitchell is not.


Mitchell pros:
He's a gifted scorer and an electrifying player who has usually shown up big in the playoffs. He sells the most jerseys. He makes your franchise cool. The contract is nice.

Mitchell cons:
I'm not sure he's gotten any better in the past 2 years. There is no effort on D. He seems petty and to lack leadership qualities. He does not attack the basket enough. He does not pass the ball well. He doesn't make opponents work hard when he's off ball. I cannot see a team in the entire league where you add him as their 1st or 2nd best player and they become obvious contenders.

Mitchell excuses:
This would be going a lot better if we had great perimeter D around him, but other than that, he has no excuses. This team is built for him to rack up points and assists and he's a 25 and 5 guy.

Contract stuff aside, I lean to Gobert. Considering the contract, I lean towards Mitchell, but the ultimate consideration is that because of Gobert's contract, they're probably not going to get value back. I'm not happy about what I'm seeing in proposals. 4 years left on Mitchell's contract is going to get you tons of value back.
 
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#17

n_huffhines

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#17
Deals I'm seeing for Gobert:

Ben Simmons - this could be the answer, but the odds that he'll be happy and good in Utah don't seem very likely.

Wiseman and Wiggins - worse in the short run, and Wiseman is a huge roll of the dice for the long run.

Burks, Fournier, Reddish, 1st rd pick (top 10 protected) - only way this is a good trade is if you steal in the draft.
 
#18

n_huffhines

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#18
This article actually has better trades (and some worse) for Gobert

Atlanta Hawks
Trade offer: Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter and a first-round draft pick

Charlotte Hornets
• Trade offer: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee and a first-round draft pick

Brooklyn Nets
Trade offer: Ben Simmons and two first-round draft picks

Chicago Bulls
• Trade offer: Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and two first-round draft picks

Dallas Mavericks
Trade offer: Reggie Bullock, Dwight Powell, Davis Bertans and two first-round draft picks

Golden State Warriors
Trade offer: Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman and a first-round draft pick

Los Angeles Clippers
Trade offer: Ivica Zubac, Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris and a first-round draft pick

Memphis Grizzlies
Trade offer: Steven Adams, De'Anthony Melton, Brandon Clarke and a first-round draft pick

Portland Trail Blazers
Trade offer: Eric Bledsoe, Anfernee Simons and a first-round draft pick

Washington Wizards
Trade offer: Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija and two first-round draft picks

Exploring the trade market for Utah Jazz stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert
 
#19

n_huffhines

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#19
For Mitchell...these are pretty terrible. I can't believe this is the best they could get.

Boston Celtics
Trade offer: Marcus Smart, Aaron Nesmith, Daniel Theis and two first-round draft picks

Indiana Pacers
Trade offer: Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Duarte and two first-round draft picks

Miami Heat
Trade offer: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin

New Orleans Pelicans
Trade offer: CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy and two first-round draft picks

New York Knicks
Trade offer: RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Derrick Rose and a first-round draft pick

San Antonio Spurs
Trade offer: Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker IV, Doug McDermott and a first-round draft pick

Sacramento Kings
Trade offer: De'Aaron Fox and a first-round draft pick
 
#21

n_huffhines

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#21
Jazz insider Spencer Checketts says the Jazz are trying to trade Gobert this offseason and thinks it's fairly likely they would trade Spyda next offseason. He says one consideration is that the Jazz are hosting the all-star game next season, and it's important to have Donovan be the star to represent the team on that day...

Utah is trying too hard to up their street cred. It's never going to happen. You can do everything right to make the organization more cultured, but you're still going to be located in Salt Lake City. Winning is what will make stars stay. Gobert and Mitchell would be happy together if it were working in the playoffs. That's it. That's all you gotta do is win. All-star weekend isn't going to give us a face lift.
 
#22

n_huffhines

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#22
The latest is the Jazz don't wanna trade either guy, but if Ayton is available, I can see both teams going for this. Who says no?

Gobert - $169m/4
Bogdanavic - $47m/2

Ayton - S&T
Shamet - $40m/4
Saric - $10m/1
Crowder - $10m/1
 

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