2020 Football 5 Bold Predictions

#51

IPleadInsanity

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#51
Both lines will be stronger and deeper. That means all the speed players will have better seasons. QB is still a question mark, curious to see how well JG does without #1 and #15. IMO he will falter against the top 10 ranked teams and be replaced by the next in line. Hopefully the team maintains the current level of beating the teams they are supposed to beat. To take the next step they need to start producing some upsets. They will be playing with more than 65 players so depth should be less of an issue.
 
#52

k-town_king

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#52
You are fundamentally dishonest person. You declaring someone a "liar" is the equivalent of Larry Flynt calling someone sexually depraved.

Yeah... that was their projection which he FAILED TO LIVE UP TO. You can't even be honest about something like that. I tagged you with a link to that article. I'm not wasting time to find it for you again.... knowing that you aren't honest enough to accept it any way.

You're being dishonest... again. You have NEVER been honest about Maurer. You have ALWAYS overstated the bad and understated the good. There are two simple reasons. One, he was a threat to JG. They were ready to give him the job and likely would have barring injury. Two, you know...

And as usual you are just about 100% wrong. The "normal" rate of improvement for a college QB is exponential. The jump from year 1 to year 2 is almost always the steepest and largest. The curve then "flattens" as they approach their talent limits.

Maurer beat him out then got injured and never really played the same after. You are wrong yet again. If Maurer just cleans up his mistakes... he's already close.

You... are just a fundamentally dishonest person. JG was HORRIBLE as a RS Fr. Try 1-6 on for size plus over 30 drive killing sacks taken to go with poor reads and frequent check downs for ineffective completions.
You lie so much you can't keep them straight. Be real.

Not projections, it was based on performance the year before. The same criteria they are using for the ranking you are touting now. You love it now that you think it backs you up.

Second year of system like JG also takes a big jump. Many take a huge jr to Sr leap. Many also take a big fr to sph leap. If they both develop at a realistic rate BM is far behind once again.

BM never once beat out JG for the job. JG played average so they tried someone else. BM happened to be the better of the two backup options.

JG was better as a freshman by a million times. BM would need to improve a ton to reach JG as a freshman.

Bm had a terrible sack rate as well 4th worse of anyone who threw a pass in the SEC last year. And I guess Joe Burrow is terrible with his 33 sacks last year.

JG vs BM as freshmen.

JG 86/139 61.9%
BM 35/75 46.7%

JG 997 yards 7.2 ypa 7.1 a/ypa
BM 541 yards 7.2 ypa 4.7 a/ypa

JG 4 tds 2ints
BM 2tds 5ints

JG 128.7 qb rating
BM 102.7 qb rating

JG 9 appearances - 3 games with a passing td, 2 games threw an int, 6 games 100 or above qb rating, 7 games 55% or better passing
BM 8 appearances- 1 game with td, 4 games throwing ints, 2 games over 100 qb rating, 2 games 55% or better passing

BM has to improve a ton to reach JG even as a freshman.
 
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#54

sjt18

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#54
You lie so much you can't keep them straight. Be real.
I do not lie. I have been incorrect and when people have shown me REAL reasons to prove it... I'm one of the few guys here who apologized and owned their mistakes rather than leaving or changing their screen name. You... are a fundamentally dishonest person.

Not projections, it was based on performance the year before.
Well even if true... that is by definition a "projection". But it is only marginally true. His "numbers" were not as good as they appeared within the context of how effective the O was. They assumed he would make a big leap forward. He did not in his most critical weaknesses. That's why by game 5... Pruitt was ready to call the year long investment in building him up sunk costs.

The same criteria they are using for the ranking you are touting now. You love it now that you think it backs you up.
That's either a stupid statement or a dishonest one. One was a prediction. The one I cited is actually measured performance. I know why you want those to be the same thing... but they aren't.

Second year of system like JG also takes a big jump.
The things that hold JG back have nothing to do with the "system" or not knowing it. JG actually demonstrated a pretty good mastery of the "system". It was making consistent, timely reads and then anticipating throws that kept coming up and biting the Vols. Not a lack of effort. Not a denial that he does some things well. Just a realistic acceptance that he has demonstrated some limitations that have and will continue to hurt the effectiveness of the O. Weaknesses that especially hurt in the red zone. Weaknesses that have prevented him in 3 years from leading an O to more than 30 points against an FBS opponent.

Many take a huge jr to Sr leap.
Name the 3 year starter RS Sr who has overcome a problem like the one plaguing JG in their last year. I don't think you will find that guy. Burrow improved dramatically... specifically because they gave him a different offensive system... not because they kept one.

Many also take a big fr to sph leap. If they both develop at a realistic rate BM is far behind once again.
You are lying to yourself... again. This parallels weight training with new players. The greatest increases are always seen early. After a relatively brief time, a guy starts to bump up against his innate limitations. Gains are incremental.

BM never once beat out JG for the job.
You are deluding yourself. Like I said, you are a fundamentally dishonest person. When a health player is benched in favor of his back up... he's by definition been beaten out. They were VERY happy with BM's performance and made no secret about it. They saw a guy failing... but failing because he was pushing rather than holding back. Then he got injured.

JG played average so they tried someone else.
That's ridiculous. He didn't play "average". He played poorly. They lost two games that should have been wins and Pruitt SPECIFICALLY cited poor QB play as the critical factor.

BM happened to be the better of the two backup options.
He was the considered the lesser of 3 "evils". He wasn't ready. He wasn't all that close to being ready. But JG was so bad that they started him anyway.

JG was better as a freshman by a million times. BM would need to improve a ton to reach JG as a freshman.
Nope. That's plain stupid... and I'm not proclaiming BM "great" or anything of the sort. You cite "stats"... except for those that provide real context and prove you WRONG. JG didn't move the O. He didn't throw INT's because he didn't take the necessary chances. He took sacks SPECIFICALLY because he was one of the worst in the SEC in holding the ball. Those sacks coupled with his unwillingness or inability to push the ball down field... made for one of the worst O's in UT history.

Bm had a terrible sack rate as well 4th worse of anyone who threw a pass in the SEC last year. And I guess Joe Burrow is terrible with his 33 sacks last year.
His sack rate was 8%... not too far behind JG at over 6%. As a RS Fr, JG took at least 31 sacks vs 139 attempts... for a pretty "amazing" 22%.

JG vs BM as freshmen.
Your continuing "lie" in calling JG a "freshman" is noted. He was a red shirt freshman with a full year in the "system" before he took over. Maurer had been in the program about 2 months.

JG 86/139 61.9%
BM 35/75 46.7%
Parsed numbers. I have shown you MANY times why you cannot look at the numbers honestly like this. You have to compare same game performances. Maurer's performance in trash time vs UTC hardly compares to JG's play with the 1st team in '17.

JG 997 yards 7.2 ypa 7.1 a/ypa
BM 541 yards 7.2 ypa 4.7 a/ypa
JG 997 yards, 11.6 yd per completion
BM 541 yds, 15.5 ypc... very literally one guy pushed the ball downfield while the other threw ineffective passes to check downs or took sacks.


JG 4 tds 2ints
BM 2tds 5ints
If Maurer in his SECOND year doesn't do better than JG in his SECOND year with comparable playing time... you have a point. Maurer wasn't ready. No one that I know of his argued that he was. He played because JG was an even worse option at that point.

JG 128.7 qb rating
BM 102.7 qb rating
If that translated to points and wins... then you'd have a point. But in reality it reflects nothing except a too cautious QB who did not effectively move the O. Maurer made a TON of freshman mistakes. But when he did it "right" it looked like it was supposed to. The O moved up and down the field. It is insane to claim that the QB that led UT's O to the anemic performances over the last 7 games of '17... is anything but a failure.

JG 9 appearances - 3 games with a passing td, 2 games threw an int, 6 games 100 or above qb rating, 7 games 55% or better passing
BM 8 appearances- 1 game with td, 4 games throwing ints, 2 games over 100 qb rating, 2 games 55% or better passing

BM has to improve a ton to reach JG even as a freshman.
JG was 1-6 as a starter. JG could not move the O and led them to one of the worst scoring O performances in UT history. Statistics are only useful in the context of reality... of what they actually accomplish. Ask most coaches which guy they would have preferred working with assuming both guys stayed healthy... and it will always be the one who pushes.... not the one who plays scared.
 
#56

sjt18

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#56
You lie so much you can't keep them straight. Be real.

Not projections, it was based on performance the year before. The same criteria they are using for the ranking you are touting now. You love it now that you think it backs you up.

Second year of system like JG also takes a big jump. Many take a huge jr to Sr leap. Many also take a big fr to sph leap. If they both develop at a realistic rate BM is far behind once again.

BM never once beat out JG for the job. JG played average so they tried someone else. BM happened to be the better of the two backup options.

JG was better as a freshman by a million times. BM would need to improve a ton to reach JG as a freshman.

Bm had a terrible sack rate as well 4th worse of anyone who threw a pass in the SEC last year. And I guess Joe Burrow is terrible with his 33 sacks last year.

JG vs BM as freshmen.

JG 86/139 61.9%
BM 35/75 46.7%

JG 997 yards 7.2 ypa 7.1 a/ypa
BM 541 yards 7.2 ypa 4.7 a/ypa

JG 4 tds 2ints
BM 2tds 5ints

JG 128.7 qb rating
BM 102.7 qb rating

JG 9 appearances - 3 games with a passing td, 2 games threw an int, 6 games 100 or above qb rating, 7 games 55% or better passing
BM 8 appearances- 1 game with td, 4 games throwing ints, 2 games over 100 qb rating, 2 games 55% or better passing

BM has to improve a ton to reach JG even as a freshman.
Here's a "fun one" for you since we are talking about who might be able to get there from where they currently are.

JG in the last two games has 1 TD pass against 3 INT's. That's worse than Maurer when Maurer was healthy in the middle of the season. He completed 50%- Maurer completed 52% in his starts.

JG's ypa/ypc were 7.1 and 14.2. In his starts only, Maurer had 8.28/16.00.

JG's QBR in the last 2 games were 102 and 105 against two of the least talented D's UT faced all year.
BM's in his 4 starts were: 144, 73, 117, and 95 with his best performances against UGA and Bama... the two most talented D's UT faced all year.


So ignoring all of your other BS... from where they are RIGHT NOW which is the real issue... BM isn't very far behind JG.
 
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#58

901 Orange

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#58
And I am genuinely asking this, how does Chaney slow the game down for JG, or get him to process quicker?

We saw a lot of the same decision making, when he was under pressure, as when he wasn't. I honestly don't know how Chaney or any OC can fix his issues at the moment.
Probably gotta go to the quick passing game. Im a firm believer that any Qb should get quick easy throws early in order to get him in rhythm quicker. I've seen some of the worse qbs catch fire early and look way better then their norm. CJC just needs to throw a few wrinkles into the scripted part of the game plan and it might help. Jmo
 
#60

sjt18

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#60
Probably gotta go to the quick passing game. Im a firm believer that any Qb should get quick easy throws early in order to get him in rhythm quicker. I've seen some of the worse qbs catch fire early and look way better then their norm. CJC just needs to throw a few wrinkles into the scripted part of the game plan and it might help. Jmo
Being able to quickly process info is prerequisite for a quick passing game. That's why they have not done it with JG in any of the past 3 years in spite of OL weaknesses and him getting brutalized in the drop back game.

You have a great thought. But is there any chance they have not considered it and tried it out in practice? I LOVE that quick "dink and dunk" as a change up just like you suggest. It really keeps DC's from getting comfortable. But your QB's decision making time is shrunk to about a half second after the snap. They have to choose a receiver, read the immediate coverage movement, and deliver to a spot. Those require strengths that are specific JG weaknesses.
 
#61

901 Orange

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#61
Being able to quickly process info is prerequisite for a quick passing game. That's why they have not done it with JG in any of the past 3 years in spite of OL weaknesses and him getting brutalized in the drop back game.

You have a great thought. But is there any chance they have not considered it and tried it out in practice? I LOVE that quick "dink and dunk" as a change up just like you suggest. It really keeps DC's from getting comfortable. But your QB's decision making time is shrunk to about a half second after the snap. They have to choose a receiver, read the immediate coverage movement, and deliver to a spot. Those require strengths that are specific JG weaknesses.
Yea u are 100% right but it does work both ways. I know his decision making is a flaw but u can still combat that with the quick pass. U just have to predetermine his reads. In order to do that CJC has to utilize multiple formations in order to get favorable matchups against the defense. Basically what im saying is dictate what the defense can throw at you with your formations. Thats exactly how the 49ers got to a superbowl with a bad decision maker. I know CJP wants a ball control offense and we can achieve that, but we have got to be outside the box with our game plan.
 
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#62

Vol423

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#62
You obviously avoided the part where the analyst said if JG puts it all together he'll be top10 overall. You predict that to be impossible because JG has reached his potential and you have given up on a kid that's given a lot to this program and who has not been terrible when stacked up to the rest of the conference, all the while there are many fans seemingly who feel he's got a good chance at improving and having a good season. I've said it many times, our QB room is one of if not the best overall in the SEC and JGs talent and experience play a role in that.
Lol. Maybe Top 10 in the SEC.
 
#70
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#70
JG will be the best backup QB to ask for. I think HB comes in to spring ball and creates the buzz, and he earns the job during fall camp.

I'm not sure about BM, if he will stay, or compete with HB. But, if the freshman comes in and is equal to JG, his upside wins.

We've got too many weapons to not utilize and maximize our chancres of moving the ball, and HB probably already has the skill set that JG didn't, or hasn't exhibited, that hindered our play calling.

Should be fun to watch unfold.

Next 4 predictions:
2 1,000 yard receivers
1,000 yard RB
Top 10 defense
We beat Oklahoma, and one of UF, UGA, or Bama.

Bash away
 
#71

WoodsmanVol

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#71
JG will be the best backup QB to ask for. I think HB comes in to spring ball and creates the buzz, and he earns the job during fall camp.

I'm not sure about BM, if he will stay, or compete with HB. But, if the freshman comes in and is equal to JG, his upside wins.

We've got too many weapons to not utilize and maximize our chancres of moving the ball, and HB probably already has the skill set that JG didn't, or hasn't exhibited, that hindered our play calling.

Should be fun to watch unfold.

Next 4 predictions:
2 1,000 yard receivers
1,000 yard RB
Top 10 defense
We beat Oklahoma, and one of UF, UGA, or Bama.

Bash away
I do believe I smell this too.
 
#73

greazy1722

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#73
JG going to have to have a breakout year and it would be foolish by this staff to go with the true freshman or go with BM. Chaney will be in this offense for year 2 and I believe you will see big improvements from this offense . JG should put up big numbers. I was always hard on JG but gotta give credit he is part of the reason for the turn around last year. We cant keep bringing up what happened two and three seasons ago. Granted yea he struggle but last season he made big improvements.
 
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#74

k-town_king

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#74
He was 9th in the SEC last uear.
By what metric? He was top half of the SEC based on stats.

If you are talking PFF only then they ranked him 9th on last years performance. If you are using them then use what they actually think as well "He’s yet to finish a season with a passing grade in our elite grade range despite teasing it in multiple games during his career. If he plays a full season at his highest capacity, Guarantano breaks the top 10 among all quarterbacks. "
 

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